ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

10p (central) NHC track



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[Jake8898]

Not sure if the overnight models will show the center relocation that looks to be taking place right now...but I think we are done seeing any westward movement in the models and will start inching eastward again. We will find out

AGreed!! I think the west shift is over....We shall see tonight.

Meaning you suspect it will potentially landfall in Al/Fl or, instead of central La. coast more likely around New Orleans?

Westward movement today has meant to the La/Ms border and/or Morgan city or more west La coast.

The NHC has it LA/Ms border. So, east from there?

[captmrwill]

smw, yeah they said the info goes into the models automatically...but not at the time we actually SEE the outcome. I think whomever it was said it has to go through quite a bit in discarding old data and new data being incorporated. What I was trying to say was that, by the time we actually see what the model runs are..the info has been processed a couple hours in advance. I could have very well misunderstood, but that is the way I remember it.

I'm a pro in the field on this very topic The process is very much automated. Millions and millions of observations are considered for use and quality controlled to generate a global atmospheric analysis, or the initial state of the atmosphere from which the models run. There are many layers of quality control that keep out "bad" observations (bad is an oversimplification and probably wrong, but I won't get esoteric here).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ gives a good example of when all the NCEP products (NAM, GFS, etc) run in UTC. You'll see that the GFS analysis doesn't run till nearly three hours after 00 UTC. This is so that they can accumulate as many observations as possible from the analysis window (at ncep, plus or minus 3 hr from analysis times of 00/06/12/18 UTC).

[PTPatrick]

New track a fair bit west...maybe 25 miles.

[SunnyThoughts]

Cool, NHC no longer has the Fla panhandle in the cone.

[southerngale]

This post does a great job in showing how "interpolated runs" can be misleading. With the wobble of Isaac, the storm moved more westward than the forecast track had shown. When the later models were dropped on the new position, it looks as if the models have shifted west, but in actuality, the models tracks that are shown are 6 hours old and retooled to fit the current position. They are more or less shifted over with 6 hours lobbed off (well, there is more to it, but I'm simplifying). The whole track gets shifted in this case. So, if the steering level of the ridge to the east would put the storm at the LA/MS line, this would be lost in an interpolation that is the result of an unforecasted wobble.

Timestamps of the maps are in the lower left corner

http://i.imgur.com/eyg7i.gif


http://i.imgur.com/qEzF8.gif

also keep in mind that most of the models going to texas are the bamm

I don't think anyone thinks it's going to Texas.

[Janie2006]

I'm a bit surprised at the new NHC track. I thought it would remain quite nearly where it was.

[N2FSU]

00Z NAM: 84hr

[HurryKane]

10p (central) NHC track

[img ]http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/3479/55380249116662422918358g.jpg[/img]

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Poor Bob Breck is losing his mind on Fox8...he wants so badly to hang on to his VIPIR model which puts NOLA on the "good" side with a Mississippi hit.

[bella_may]

also keep in mind that most of the models going to texas are the bamm

I like to refer to the BAMS as "models" and not models. But, there is a shift in the skilled numerical models too.

ok i forgot an s. shoot me

[southerngale]

also keep in mind that most of the models going to texas are the bamm

I like to refer to the BAMS as "models" and not models. But, there is a shift in the skilled numerical models too.

ok i forgot an s. shoot me

theavocado wasn't correcting your grammar. He/she was "insulting" the BAMS by putting them in quotes. Lighten up.

[Dean4Storms]

That track shift west tells you what the NHC thinks of NAM at TC Track Forecasting!

[bella_may]

I like to refer to the BAMS as "models" and not models. But, there is a shift in the skilled numerical models too.[/quote]
ok i forgot an s. shoot me [/quote]

theavocado wasn't correcting your grammar. He/she was "insulting" the BAMS by putting them in quotes. Lighten up.[/quote]
I just noticed that. sorry lol.

[theavocado]

also keep in mind that most of the models going to texas are the bamm

I like to refer to the BAMS as "models" and not models. But, there is a shift in the skilled numerical models too.

ok i forgot an s. shoot me

Don't get me wrong, I wasn't knocking you. I was knocking the usefulness of the Beta-Advection Models on a storm this developed.

[Ivanhater]

Cool, NHC no longer has the Fla panhandle in the cone.

With the center reformation taking place now and the UKMET and Euro, Pensacola would be in the worst spot....check the overnight models and we will see what happens

[theavocado]

I like to refer to the BAMS as "models" and not models. But, there is a shift in the skilled numerical models too.

ok i forgot an s. shoot me [/quote]

theavocado wasn't correcting your grammar. He/she was "insulting" the BAMS by putting them in quotes. Lighten up.[/quote]
I just noticed that. sorry lol. [/quote]

Man, I must be a slow typer for so many people to beat me to my own reply

[SoupBone]

Cool, NHC no longer has the Fla panhandle in the cone.

With the center reformation taking place now and the UKMET and Euro, Pensacola would be in the worst spot....check the overnight models and we will see what happens

Ivan, would the models be initiated on the new center area or do they have to receive the official HH info to make that call?

[bella_may]

I like to refer to the BAMS as "models" and not models. But, there is a shift in the skilled numerical models too.[/quote][/quote]
Don't get me wrong, I wasn't knocking you. I was knocking the usefulness of the Beta-Advection Models on a storm this developed.

Oh I know. I wasn't taking that way

[Ivanhater]

Cool, NHC no longer has the Fla panhandle in the cone.

With the center reformation taking place now and the UKMET and Euro, Pensacola would be in the worst spot....check the overnight models and we will see what happens

Ivan, would the models be initiated on the new center area or do they have to receive the official HH info to make that call?

The relocation is just now taking place so I don't think the models would have have this yet, .

[SunnyThoughts]

Cool, NHC no longer has the Fla panhandle in the cone.

With the center reformation taking place now and the UKMET and Euro, Pensacola would be in the worst spot....check the overnight models and we will see what happens

Oh I'm staying up to see them Ivan, been up the last 3 nights...why should tonight be any different? lol Actually, I have a couple of grown daughters and grandchildren in P'cola as well...they all depend on me for info..which I always get BEFORE they can even get the info on tv...just by coming to storm2k!