ATL: ISAAC - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

I wondered why the cone at 4pm CST moved so slightly west. You have several models aligned in SW LA, yet parts of SW LA aren't even in the NHC cone of uncertainty?

Is there a reason the NHC is not giving these models any buy-in? I left work Friday and this was a Florida storm. Nothing to worry about and now it's shifted hundreds of miles west.

Do you guys feel the NHC cone of uncertainty will move west again?

I got people in East Louisiana saying they want to evacuate to central Louisiana and I'm not so sure that is the best decision.

The NHC track is pretty much just blend of the ECMWF and GFS model. They don't want to discredit any of the two best models so they include both models in the forecast track. I don't see the cone moving west until the Euro picks up on the westward trend.

[pledger28]

I wondered why the cone at 4pm CST moved so slightly west. You have several models aligned in SW LA, yet parts of SW LA aren't even in the NHC cone of uncertainty?

Is there a reason the NHC is not giving these models any buy-in? I left work Friday and this was a Florida storm. Nothing to worry about and now it's shifted hundreds of miles west.

Do you guys feel the NHC cone of uncertainty will move west again?

I got people in East Louisiana saying they want to evacuate to central Louisiana and I'm not so sure that is the best decision.

I think that the reason has been stated here a few hours ago. The NHC seems to like stability in its forecast. It does not tend to flip and flop with all of the different model trends. I believe that the NHC cone will trend farther west. It seems as though it is taking baby steps. No one likes egg on their face.

This is not a forecast but an opinion only!

[Janie2006]

I wondered why the cone at 4pm CST moved so slightly west. You have several models aligned in SW LA, yet parts of SW LA aren't even in the NHC cone of uncertainty?

Is there a reason the NHC is not giving these models any buy-in? I left work Friday and this was a Florida storm. Nothing to worry about and now it's shifted hundreds of miles west.

Do you guys feel the NHC cone of uncertainty will move west again?

I got people in East Louisiana saying they want to evacuate to central Louisiana and I'm not so sure that is the best decision.

Well, in my opinion I don't think NHC is big on abruptly shifting the cone by a huge extent on one forecast cycle....it's more of a gradual process. I think they're paying very close attention to the GFS, but they also can't just discount the Euro's insistence on a weakness in the ridge, so, NHC plays it conservative and doesn't go all in on the GFS solution. If the Euro moves west I don't think they'll have any choice but to shift the track farther west......but all of this is my own speculation and opinion.

[bella_may]

the 00z gfs will trend east. You heard it here first

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[HouTXmetro]

the 00z gfs will trend east. You heard it here first

the 00z gfs will trend east. You heard it here first

Do you have some inside info?

[hurricanejustin]

the 00z gfs will trend east. You heard it here first

Based on what? Do you have inside information of some sort? Might want to include a disclaimer there.

[HurricaneBrain]

the 00z gfs will trend east. You heard it here first

What evidence supports your prediction?

[bella_may]

It's beginning to slow down and the center is starting to relocate to the north. Jmo though

[Stormlover2012]

that doesnt matter, it all depends on the trough if it can pick it up are not

[Ivanhater]

Nice graphic of where the center is relocating, north of most of the models

[HurricaneBrain]

In the long term a center relocation shouldn't affect final landfall too much.

[deltadog03]

HMMM Michael.....

[Ixolib]

In the long term a center relocation shouldn't affect final landfall too much.

But, not much of a "long term" left... Three days, two??

[KWT]

Something people do need to remember is with landfalling systems, the models are typically too far left and a good amount of time the system will landfall say 50-60 miles east of where the models are expecting say 24hrs out.

[BigB0882]

I would think a center relocation would only result in a slightly more western landfall, probably still in SELA according to most models. The only thing that will cause a big shift is if the models start thinking the weakness really opens and the trough comes through to pick him up.

[ColdFusion]

Nice graphic of where the center is relocating, north of most of the models

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/mo ... 031855.png

Wow really? I guess wundermaps is not as real time as I thought it was.

[Stephanie]

Good God, not again.

Where, o, where is the east shift in the models that we are used to during the flipfloppin'?

I was just going to say that it seemed to me that the models in the past, would trend westward more before settling in on a more eastward track. It's still not too far out of the realm of possibility. Isaac is still over the Keys. Not that I'm hoping for a direct hit on anyone, but it's just an observation of mine from over the years.

[pledger28]

It's beginning to slow down and the center is starting to relocate to the north. Jmo though

Those statements have already been addressed a few hours ago. Someone said that it had stalled and the NHC squashed that at their next update. Jeff Masters has stated ". Late in the flight, the hunters found a shift in the center to the west, which could either be a trend or just a "wobble," and could readjust. Another mission is on its way to the storm. "
We are getting into such a touchy time with this storm. People are reading these boards to make critical choices. I am very happy that we can all express our opinions but a little reading would prevent repeated false assumptions.

[Stephanie]

Something people do need to remember is with landfalling systems, the models are typically too far left and a good amount of time the system will landfall say 50-60 miles east of where the models are expecting say 24hrs out.

Okay, so you just kind of confirmed what Senobia and I were thinking about the models.

[Janie2006]

See, that's the difficulty with watching these storms for hours on end, every detail, each radar scan, every hot tower. Every little movement appears to have vital significance. It is, of course, completely possible that Isaac will relocate under a burst of convection. However, it remains a strong TS, not a Cat 4 or 5 capable of creating it's own sort of movement against other features in the atmosphere. It remains vulnerable to large scale synoptic features. If it can't punch through the ridge, if it doesn't find the weakness, well, there's the answer in terms of future movement.

That's not to say that GFS won't shift back to the east, but in my years here it's been my experience that people attribute great importance to things that may not turn out to be all that important at all in terms of a landfall point. Time will tell.