ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to say that with some of the model trends, the NE Texas coast is not off the hook at all

[Stormlover2012]

GFS ensembles



http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... &start=560

[Nederlander]

Im going to say that with some of the model trends, the NE Texas coast is not off the hook at all

I'm in between beaumont and port arthur. I haven't really paid much attention thus far, but I am not liking the westward trend.

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS ensembles



http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... &start=560

Wow. Even further west. None in AL/FL this time.

[Wx_Warrior]

18z GFS ensembles




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[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know the future track depends on how much the trough digs and in turn breaks down ridge over SE that could make enough weakness to turn Isaac north. Or not and he goes nw/wnw. Could someone please post a graphic of the US that shows all the players. Cause as of right now I dont see much in a way of a digging trough, just a ridge holding firm. Thanks.

[KWT]

The GFS ensembles have indeed shifted a touch westwards, amazing transformation on the models compared to even yesterday morning!

[Janie2006]

Wow. Rather surprised at the 18Z ensemble. I was of the opinion that GFS would start trending back toward the Euro. I still think Euro is on to something whilst sniffing out that troughiness. Not letting down my guard here in the least and all emergency preps continue.

[southerngale]

Im going to say that with some of the model trends, the NE Texas coast is not off the hook at all

NE Texas doesn't have a coast.

Of course I know you meant SE Texas.

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to say that with some of the model trends, the NE Texas coast is not off the hook at all

NE Texas doesn't have a coast.

Of course I know you meant SE Texas.

Yes, been tracking for too many hours, my bad

[Texashawk]

If you live in SETX, the latest run trends are no bueno.

And remember, one of the 2 right models is the NAM, which does not specialize in track.





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[Janie2006]

The beaches of Texarkana!!

If you had said this yesterday I would have said you're insane, but look at the GFS noodling its way toward the Texas coast. Now, I'm *not* saying Isaac is going to Texas, but it is an interesting feature.

[NDG]

The GFS ensembles have indeed shifted a touch westwards, amazing transformation on the models compared to even yesterday morning!

This is unreal, I thought they had come a long way from exactly 7 years ago.

[thetraveler]

The GFS ensembles have indeed shifted a touch westwards, amazing transformation on the models compared to even yesterday morning!

This is unreal, I thought they had come a long way from exactly 7 years ago.

You may be right but I think they have, weather changes and these models I think are doing a good job of sniffing those changes out and making adjustments. Not arguing, just stating an opinion.

[jes]

I totally agree with you Janie. My shutters will go up in the morning. I took my elderly dementia ridden parents to Montgomery for Ivan just to watch the storm turn to the right at the last minute. We were stuck in Montgomery for two days with no power. However, the power was on at my house in Mobile the day after. No way I'm going to let down my prep's now just because they say it's going West.

[KWT]

Perhaps worth noting the ECM does very little with the strength of this system in the next 12hrs, its really only past that point that it ramps up in quite a big way with some pretty rapid strenthening.

[Senobia]

Good God, not again.

Where, o, where is the east shift in the models that we are used to during the flipfloppin'?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If the center relocates north and the speed backs way off, and we see rapid strengthening, what will that likely do to the model runs?
Actually, the better question is... is there anything that Isaac could do at this point that would cause a northward motion versus a wnw trajectory?

[crazycajuncane]

I wondered why the cone at 4pm CST moved so slightly west. You have several models aligned in SW LA, yet parts of SW LA aren't even in the NHC cone of uncertainty?

Is there a reason the NHC is not giving these models any buy-in? I left work Friday and this was a Florida storm. Nothing to worry about and now it's shifted hundreds of miles west.

Do you guys feel the NHC cone of uncertainty will move west again?

I got people in East Louisiana saying they want to evacuate to central Louisiana and I'm not so sure that is the best decision.

[pledger28]

Good God, not again.

Where, o, where is the east shift in the models that we are used to during the flipfloppin'?

I am personally happy that they have stopped flip flopping...I was starting to get light headed from all the heart palpatations. At least now those of us in east texas know that we at least need to be on guard.