ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re:

#4921 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:48 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Yep. GFS doesn't budge.


Does it still head west?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4922 Postby Portastorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:48 pm

Comparing the 18z GFS at 48 hrs vs. the 12z GFS at 54 hrs, the 18z looks a little faster with the speed of the storm and the center of circulation is a little to the northwest of what the 12z showed.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: Re:

#4923 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Yep. GFS doesn't budge.


Does it still head west?


Yep
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#4924 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

60hrs parallels the coast of LA heading west/wnw near Morgan City

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

#4925 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

How many runs of the GFS have shown a Louisiana solution now? Four?
0 likes   
Top
Waterman1971
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:08 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4926 Postby Waterman1971 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:49 pm

These are Rita (left), Katrina (center), and Isaac's projected path.


[url][URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/196/katuc.jpg/]Image[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/url]
0 likes   
Top
wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re:

#4927 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:60hrs parallels the coast of LA heading west/wnw near Morgan City

http://i45.tinypic.com/nwwy1f.gif


That looks to heading to Texas


*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4928 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:51 pm

the 18z gfs usually doesn't change too much from 12z to 18z. will have to wait till 00z. One thing is for sure, these models sure can be stubborn sometimes. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#4929 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:52 pm

72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K

Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#4930 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:52 pm

18z GFS looks like landfall south of Houma then moves through Morgan city up to Lafayette. Very similar to Gustav's track just a touch further south.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4931 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:52 pm

drifts west the trof didnt pick it up....steering collapses to some extent but the ALT ridge still enough to drift it west so far...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4932 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:53 pm

that is a bit further west than I care to like.....didnt expect that far left...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#4933 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:53 pm

The 18z GFS from yesterday was the first to really move westward into Louisiana which started a major shift west in many models. I wouldn't consider it 'junk' like many say.
0 likes   
Top
bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4934 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:55 pm

Maybe about 50-100 mile shift to the right so that instead of staying just offshore Louisiana it moves just inland.

18z
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=078

12z
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=084
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re:

#4935 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4936 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:56 pm

well most of the GFS ensembles are tightly packed now in LA so this op run makes since in that respect.
0 likes   
Top
wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re: Re:

#4937 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:58 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.



A little wobble and it will be over mine!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

#4938 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:59 pm

If you look at it on a large scale, it's really interesting to see how the Euro and GFS have neatly swapped places in terms of Isaac over the last several days. The Euro went from the western solution to an eastern one and the GFS did the opposite.
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#4939 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:01 pm

gfs looks quite a bit weaker. it needs to slow down alot.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: Re:

#4940 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:01 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.

Me too Blinhart! Not many people around here in Vermilion seem to be concerned. I just hope that we don't end up with a surprise visit from Isaac. Please post whatever you hear or know that may concern Vermilion Parish as well - really appreciate it neighbor!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests