ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Isaac seems to be moving a smidge north of west at this point if the radar depictions are accurate. Of course, recon will confirm.

[Senobia]

For people in the SETX (Beaumont area), 12 NEWS had this to say this morning via Twitter:

Many reliable computer models have shifted the track further west including the reliable "GFS" and other ensemble models. In the latest runs on Sunday morning many of these have the system making landfall in either the central Louisiana or western Louisiana coastline by Wednesday into Thursday and then veering the system west.

It is quite possible and likely the Hurricane Center will shift this track again west with the next advisory.

Intensification is expected to be a category 2 at time of landfall, some models taking into account very favorable diffluent wind pattern aloft and untapped warm Gulf of Mexico waters help strengthen Isaac into a Major Hurricane with winds over 120 mphby time of landfall.

Hurricane preparedness plans need to be visited by all residents in the event Isaac heads into the general direction of SE Texas in the next several days.

http://www.12newsnow.com/story/19344946 ... -caribbean

[Senobia]

Latest "action zones", via TWC:

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like that southern side has really filled in recently. I still think were on track to see this become a hurricane right as it passes by the keys.

[ROCK]

For people in the SETX (Beaumont area), 12 NEWS had this to say this morning via Twitter:

Many reliable computer models have shifted the track further west including the reliable "GFS" and other ensemble models. In the latest runs on Sunday morning many of these have the system making landfall in either the central Louisiana or western Louisiana coastline by Wednesday into Thursday and then veering the system west.

It is quite possible and likely the Hurricane Center will shift this track again west with the next advisory.

Intensification is expected to be a category 2 at time of landfall, some models taking into account very favorable diffluent wind pattern aloft and untapped warm Gulf of Mexico waters help strengthen Isaac into a Major Hurricane with winds over 120 mphby time of landfall.

Hurricane preparedness plans need to be visited by all residents in the event Isaac heads into the general direction of SE Texas in the next several days.

http://www.12newsnow.com/story/19344946 ... -caribbean

I agree....with this course of action right now....I have stated many times the last few days the west solution was more likely. Just dont know how far west....right now I am thinking SWLA....but I could be wrong about that...



posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Senobia]

The tweet said: SE Texas NOT out of the woods yet with Isaac.

Then it linked to that story.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Without inertia Isaac would continue to keep on tracking more west than it's currently doing, however in the space of 3 days Inertia will have it's part to play in keeping the system wanting to go to the right (the influence being the LLC and inertia effect explosive developments have on these systems.)

EWRC's possibly also making the tracking slightly complicated further on into mid-week.

[capepoint]

Better go fill your gas tanks today, no matter where you live. With this track shift, the price will skyrocket tonight.

[tropicwatch]

Timing is going to be everything. I'm not sure the front will bypass Isaac.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Nimbus]

Recon hasn't found any extrapolated pressure below 996 and that was a little south of the NHC track. Should have a better idea of the track by tonight once the center motion gets initialized.

[bohaiboy]

Being that Katrina actually went ashore well east of New Orleans(Pass Christian/Gulfport area) what kind of winds did the greater New Orleans area see? I certainly hope the levees have been repaired adequately.

[jinftl]

Experiencing lots of lightning with this feeder band moving through Broward right now...winds gusting to 59 mph per tv news. Is thunder and lightning common in tropical systems? I didn't think it was.

[RL3AO]

Recon confirms a stacked storm from 5000 feet down to the surface. Radar confirms its stacked though at least 700mb.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Better go fill your gas tanks today, no matter where you live. With this track shift, the price will skyrocket tonight.

BP and Chevron are already evacuating platforms in the Gulf. Depending on stocks this shouldn't have too much of an impact however.

[gqhebert]

For people in the SETX (Beaumont area), 12 NEWS had this to say this morning via Twitter:

Many reliable computer models have shifted the track further west including the reliable "GFS" and other ensemble models. In the latest runs on Sunday morning many of these have the system making landfall in either the central Louisiana or western Louisiana coastline by Wednesday into Thursday and then veering the system west.

It is quite possible and likely the Hurricane Center will shift this track again west with the next advisory.

Intensification is expected to be a category 2 at time of landfall, some models taking into account very favorable diffluent wind pattern aloft and untapped warm Gulf of Mexico waters help strengthen Isaac into a Major Hurricane with winds over 120 mphby time of landfall.

Hurricane preparedness plans need to be visited by all residents in the event Isaac heads into the general direction of SE Texas in the next several days.

http://www.12newsnow.com/story/19344946 ... -caribbean

Wow...this is really interesting.......

[galaxy401]

So that means the center is still on the edge of the convection?

[Hurricaneman]

So that means the center is still on the edge of the convection?

Yep, radar confirms this I believe

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[midnight8]

The whole story on Isaac from KBMT12 in Southeast Texas

http://www.12newsnow.com/story/19344946 ... -caribbean

[jlauderdal]

Experiencing lots of lightning with this feeder band moving through Broward right now...winds gusting to 59 mph per tv news. Is thunder and lightning common in tropical systems? I didn't think it was.

we had two really big cracks of lighting 30 mins ago in that feeder band

[jhpigott]

Looks to be a nasty little cell that just lit up east of Jupiter. Looks to be coming in around Palm Beach County/Martin County border.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0