ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

I apologize I meant down not up.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Meteor cane, why up a few mbs, I think it will go down if anything.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I apologize I meant down not up.

It's ok, I say upgrade when I mean intensify 5 kts.

EDIT:I agree with you.

[StormClouds63]

I think Earl (2004), Debby (2000), and Chris (2006) could also be called the "Bill Buckner" of hurricanes.

Seriously, what exactly is forecast as to the upper air environment in the eastern GOM for the next several days? Everyone seems to be saying that RI will occur. Perhaps so. Is there a chance, however, that shear and/or dry air would inhibit development or at least keep in check. I recall Ivan had less than ideal GOM conditions and did weaken a bit ... but still a formidable cat 3 at landfall.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Pressure will likely be down a few mbs with the next advisory.

Don't you mean down? Why the heck would they go up when this is the best it's looked all day?

EDIT: Ok never mind I just saw your last message about meaning down... and I would have to agree. I wouldn't be surprised to have the next recon flight find a Hurricane!

[jinftl]

Katrina was an enormous Cat 5 at her peak and she followed a track and intensification and ideal atmospheric conditions that built up a storm and surge that hopefully will only be seen every few generations or centuries. She weakened her winds to Cat 3 at landfall on the Gulf Coast but the surge was still Cat 5. Isaac is a mid-range tropical storm that is currently forecast to intensify to Cat 1 or 2 status as it approaches the NE or N Central Gulf after impacting the Keys and South Florida. This is not Katrina just like this isn't the Labor Day Cane of 1935 that hit the middle Keys with 200 mph winds. This isn't Katrina...it's not even Gustav. Back to the storm at hand.

Anybody know the conditions that existed with Katrina when she was in a similar position, and how (or if) similar conditions will exist for Issac? Better conditions for organization? Worse?

One thing that is certainly similar, if nothing else, from simply a size perspective ONLY; is the wind field. Katrina had a huge wind field, moving a vast amount of water, with tremendous wave action on top. I remember clearly, when Katrina was still 300+ miles SE of NOLA, 50 foot wave heights were being reported in a wide area of about 30 miles, fomr end to end! That is when I knew some place was going to be in alot of trouble. 50 foot waves have to end up somewhere, especially when they are over 30 miles wide, and Katrina was still building.

[cycloneye]

Cuban radar shows the center well.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I think Earl (2004), Debby (2000), and Chris (2006) could also be called the "Bill Buckner" of hurricanes.

Seriously, what exactly is forecast as to the upper air environment in the eastern GOM for the next several days? Everyone seems to be saying that RI will occur. Perhaps so. Is there a chance, however, that shear and/or dry air would inhibit development or at least keep in check. I recall Ivan had less than ideal GOM conditions and did weaken a bit ... but still a formidable cat 3 at landfall.

Yes, it could weaken, been a bit unpredictable so far, never know exactly what's going on in the storm. There's a 53% chance it's a hurricane at landfall, per the nhc.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Cuban radar shows the center well.

That eye you pointed out may be enough, probably not, and if this continues a strengthening trend, to change to winds to 55kts, but I betcha recon finds a 65kt storm by morning.

[TwisterFanatic]

I think Earl (2004), Debby (2000), and Chris (2006) could also be called the "Bill Buckner" of hurricanes.

Seriously, what exactly is forecast as to the upper air environment in the eastern GOM for the next several days? Everyone seems to be saying that RI will occur. Perhaps so. Is there a chance, however, that shear and/or dry air would inhibit development or at least keep in check. I recall Ivan had less than ideal GOM conditions and did weaken a bit ... but still a formidable cat 3 at landfall.

Every model so far is showing more than ideal conditions in the Gulf, at least up to this point.

[galaxy401]

What did the best track show a couple hours ago for Isaac? I'm not sure if it's been posted or not.

[SouthDadeFish]

Cuban radar shows the center well.

http://i1050.photobucket.com/albums/s41 ... 210pmb.gif

Awesome image. Apparently Isaac is very well organized. I can't get my link for the Cuban radar to work? Which one did you use?

[cycloneye]

What did the best track show a couple hours ago for Isaac? I'm not sure if it's been posted or not.

Here it is.

[bAL, 09, 2012082600, , BEST, 0, 217N, 767W, 50, 997, TS][/b]

[Blinhart]

Katrina was an enormous Cat 5 at her peak and she followed a track and intensification and ideal atmospheric conditions that built up a storm and surge that hopefully will only be seen every few generations or centuries. She weakened her winds to Cat 3 at landfall on the Gulf Coast but the surge was still Cat 5. Isaac is a mid-range tropical storm that is currently forecast to intensify to Cat 1 or 2 status as it approaches the NE or N Central Gulf after impacting the Keys and South Florida. This is not Katrina just like this isn't the Labor Day Cane of 1935 that hit the middle Keys with 200 mph winds. This isn't Katrina...it's not even Gustav. Back to the storm at hand.

Anybody know the conditions that existed with Katrina when she was in a similar position, and how (or if) similar conditions will exist for Issac? Better conditions for organization? Worse?

One thing that is certainly similar, if nothing else, from simply a size perspective ONLY; is the wind field. Katrina had a huge wind field, moving a vast amount of water, with tremendous wave action on top. I remember clearly, when Katrina was still 300+ miles SE of NOLA, 50 foot wave heights were being reported in a wide area of about 30 miles, fomr end to end! That is when I knew some place was going to be in alot of trouble. 50 foot waves have to end up somewhere, especially when they are over 30 miles wide, and Katrina was still building.

And we don't know what Isaac is going to be in the next 72 hours, the NHC even states that this storm could be a lot stronger than they are predicting. So that is why there is so much speculation going around right now.

[galaxy401]

What did the best track show a couple hours ago for Isaac? I'm not sure if it's been posted or not.

Here it is.

[bAL, 09, 2012082600, , BEST, 0, 217N, 767W, 50, 997, TS][/b]

Cool thanks. Might be 55 knots now but we will see.

[jinftl]

Be interested in reading the NHC Discussion at 11pm and see if the growing ball of convection near the center is in fact the start of Isaac intensifying. We have seen this before with Isaac - he looks to be getting his act together on satellite, but recon often found that not to be the case. we will see..

[wxwatcher1999]

What would cause it to go farther west when it comes to speed and strength?

[cycloneye]

Cuban radar shows the center well.

http://i1050.photobucket.com/albums/s41 ... 210pmb.gif

Awesome image. Apparently Isaac is very well organized. I can't get my link for the Cuban radar to work? Which one did you use?

This is link to various radars there.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[psyclone]

TWC's Greg Forbes is very bullish on tornado potential tomorrow and monday for the Florida peninsula. generally, long-lived tornado watches are issued and reissued during TC landfalls and I suspect this will be no exception. Be alert tomorrow as sometimes these hit and lift before a warning can be disseminated.

[MJS1]

Katrina was an enormous Cat 5 at her peak and she followed a track and intensification and ideal atmospheric conditions that built up a storm and surge that hopefully will only be seen every few generations or centuries. She weakened her winds to Cat 3 at landfall on the Gulf Coast but the surge was still Cat 5. Isaac is a mid-range tropical storm that is currently forecast to intensify to Cat 1 or 2 status as it approaches the NE or N Central Gulf after impacting the Keys and South Florida. This is not Katrina just like this isn't the Labor Day Cane of 1935 that hit the middle Keys with 200 mph winds. This isn't Katrina...it's not even Gustav. Back to the storm at hand.

[quote="BigEasy".

[/quote]

I would add a caveat at the end of your post...."AT THIS MOMENT it does not seem likely for TC Isaac to reach a Katrina/Gustav like scenario ..but please STAY TUNED TO NWS/NHC for updates as nature has a way to surprise us"...in MY UNTRAINED BARELY RANK AMATEUR OPINION ONLY the NHC has had problems calculating TC Isaac's intensity..I think it's fair to say that "intensity" is the weakest link in their armour...