ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2961 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:32 am

NHC 2 am track

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#2962 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:33 am

here is the loop. just toggle the last 4 images. us see a couple big shifts.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=09
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2963 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:33 am

Bocadude85 wrote:what are the chances this makes landfall in south florida first before heading to the panhandle?


Considering the Keys are part of South Florida and essentially all of the 0z models depict some sort of landfall in the Keys, I'd say pretty good at this point in time. It all depends on how the storm handles the land in front of it.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2964 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:34 am

question is if it is going to slow in the gulf due to lack of steering..
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

#2965 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:35 am

It's hard for me to believe that the models can nail down landfall this far out ecspecially when they are showing isaac so strong at the beginning of the run when really right now he is poorly organized with multiple vorticies
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#2966 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:37 am

0z Operational HWRF Model Suite

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
wxman76
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 84
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:19 pm
Location: Gibsonton FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2967 Postby wxman76 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:37 am

All the models are weakening the ridge to the north of Isaac. that will allow more poleward flow in the Gulf, rather than blocking it and weakening the steering flow as much as the models had earlier.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MidnightRain
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2011 8:26 pm
Location: NW Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2968 Postby MidnightRain » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:38 am

As good as the agreement right now in the models are, recon is finding nothing where the supposed center is. Could be another wrench thrown into this if it relocates south.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2969 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:38 am

MidnightRain wrote:As good as the agreement right now in the models are, recon is finding nothing where the supposed center is. Could be another wrench thrown into this if it relocates south.


the relocation is not significant enough to affect the models that much
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Texashawk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2970 Postby Texashawk » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
MidnightRain wrote:As good as the agreement right now in the models are, recon is finding nothing where the supposed center is. Could be another wrench thrown into this if it relocates south.


the relocation is not significant enough to affect the models that much


It is if it's relocated AND the storm is supposed to move northwest RIGHTNOW, as it seems to need to do to make the model projections.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

#2971 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:45 am

Looking at the EURO on Weather Underground (which does 3 hour intervals) it looks like it has Isaac relocating south, then heading N toward the DR before turning towards the WNW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2972 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:49 am

sat animation

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2973 Postby perk » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:51 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
MidnightRain wrote:As good as the agreement right now in the models are, recon is finding nothing where the supposed center is. Could be another wrench thrown into this if it relocates south.


the relocation is not significant enough to affect the models that much


How can you say it's not significant enough when we really don't know where the center is.
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#2974 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:51 am

Still doesn't look to be gaining any latitude to me. Maybe my eyes are just tired.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Texashawk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)

#2975 Postby Texashawk » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:53 am

looks like they're honeing in on a center.. WAY south of last position, around 15.2 degrees N
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re:

#2976 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:55 am

Texashawk wrote:looks like they're honeing in on a center.. WAY south of last position, around 15.2 degrees N


Don't think the center is THAT far south.. that is a difference of a whole degree and a half..
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
JamesCaneTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 207
Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:33 pm
Location: Portland, Maine

Re: Re:

#2977 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:58 am

meriland23 wrote:
Texashawk wrote:looks like they're honeing in on a center.. WAY south of last position, around 15.2 degrees N


Don't think the center is THAT far south.. that is a difference of a whole degree and a half..


Recon doesn't lie... If that's where they found the center then that's where it is... Still waiting for more data though...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: Re:

#2978 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:59 am

JamesCaneTracker wrote:
meriland23 wrote:
Texashawk wrote:looks like they're honeing in on a center.. WAY south of last position, around 15.2 degrees N


Don't think the center is THAT far south.. that is a difference of a whole degree and a half..


Recon doesn't lie... If that's where they found the center then that's where it is... Still waiting for more data though...

is this brand new recon info?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
JamesCaneTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 207
Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:33 pm
Location: Portland, Maine

Re: Re:

#2979 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:01 am

is this brand new recon info?


Yes it is... there is currently a mission going on and they are trying to find the center for their first pass.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2980 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:02 am

well.. 15N, that would certainly change things.. really likes to head south at this time of night.. doesn't it lol
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests