ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LaBreeze]

Guess I am a little anxious to see what the 10pm updated track shows... my house is about 6 miles inland on the AL/MS state line in Grand Bay. Not in a flood zone but still wouldn't want a major bearing down on me. I know what Frederic did to this area back in 1979, taking a similar path.

Lots of anxious folks for sure all along the gulf coast. All we can do is be prepared and deal with whatever comes our way the best way we can.

Yes indeed, that is life along the GOM.

[LAwxrgal]

Y'all can have Isaac. I don't want him or any part of him. Anyway, it's a mess. Someone will have to deal with him at some point, I just hope that whoever has to deal with him it isn't too bad, as tropical systems go. I've got a funeral to go to Saturday and then we have to talk about our hurricane plan.

[tolakram]

(Hurricane Gilbert) didn't scrape by Dominican Republic. It was a good 2 1/2 degrees south of there at the time it strengthened to a cat 3.

It was a very large storm; banding went over the the Dominican Republic.

Gilbert completely obscuring all of Hispaniola:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _1303Z.jpg

And how does this compare to Isaac? That's my question. Gilbert had no structure issues documented by the NHC or anyone else, and comparing Isaac to Gilbert seems a little far fetched. Isaac has, so far, existed almost 3 days and hasn't progressed beyond a low end TS.

GILBERT
TD - Sept 8
TS - Sept 9
Cat 1 - Sept 10
Cat 3 - Sept 11
Cat 5 - Sept 13

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

and

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim01.gif

No mention of structural issues, and if there were any they certainly didn't slow intensification.

I was 25 years old in 1988, can't say I was watching that closely.

[deltadog03]

another zoomed in view of what Luis posted....



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SFLcane]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...

As my post above what might this do to in terms of the models?

[SapphireSea]

Looks like the N. Vort near PR is going to end up becoming the core. It's probobly being inhibited still by light-moderate E-ENE shear?. Some new convection is developing around it's east side and doesn't look like it may wrap properly, but I suspect that this one will be the one to stack. Still very disorganized, but it's slowly oh very slowly intensifying. Recon will find near nill change to slightly stronger if I had to bet.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like maybe the northern vort is taking over.. convection appears to be wrapping

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-short.html

Give lat/long of the area you are referring to?

16.5n 68w

[Frank P]

Looks like maybe the northern vort is taking over.. convection appears to be wrapping

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-short.html

Convection definitely on the increase attm, good loop, need to get the convection to wrap around to the east and we might have go for launch... my purely unprofessional opinion...

[tolakram]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...

As my post above what might this do to in terms of the models?

My take is all the models assumed the northern center location anyway, and the upper air data fed in tonight is going to be much more important than this shift.

[TwisterFanatic]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...

As my post above what might this do to in terms of the models?

IMO, not much if anything. GFS initialized the last run about where the northern most LLC is.

[tolakram]

I believe the latest burst is very close to the center. Isaac IR has fooled us so many times I'm not going to even give an opinion on what this means.

saved loop



saved RBTOP loop: http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/8398 ... imated.gif

[JamesCaneTracker]

I was saying earlier that I thought the North Circulation would win out but looking at color IR I can see it wrapping up south of 15 north between 68 and 69 west. Might just be me but that very Deep convection to the west of that location looks like a great start to the Western quad of a CDO! And there are signs of a eastern inflow band starting to developing wrapping up into that area on the eastern side.

Just what I am seeing... Could certainly be wrong!

[Aric Dunn]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...

As my post above what might this do to in terms of the models?

My take is all the models assumed the northern center location anyway, and the upper air data fed in tonight is going to be much more important than this shift.

satellite is very hard to judge. however the northern vort has sustained convection for quite a few hours. which is new. just have to wait.

[PerdidoGirl]

Guess I am a little anxious to see what the 10pm updated track shows... my house is about 6 miles inland on the AL/MS state line in Grand Bay. Not in a flood zone but still wouldn't want a major bearing down on me. I know what Frederic did to this area back in 1979, taking a similar path.


Lots of anxious folks for sure all along the gulf coast. All we can do is be prepared and deal with whatever comes our way the best way we can.

Yes indeed, that is life along the GOM.

..............and that's me worried also....1/1-2 miles inland from Perdido Key. Was still awake fretting at 4:30 this morning and things don't look much better for FL/AL line. Think it's time to get a bit more proactive.

[Frank P]

I believe the latest burst is very close to the center. Isaac IR has fooled us so many times I'm not going to even give an opinion on what this means.

saved loop

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/9053 ... imated.gif

saved RBTOP loop: http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/8398 ... imated.gif

looks like we have some developing storms on the eastern side as well..

[wxwatcher1999]

looks to be moving west to me

[hurricanes1234]

What's the latest on Isaac's intensity?

[Hurricane Alexis]

What's the latest on Isaac's intensity?

40 kts.

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

-NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN AS SUCH, JUST AN OPINION FROM AN AMATEUR WEATHER ENTHUSIAST-

I'm thinking both the northern and southern circulations are going to meet in the middle. Bigger convection area over MLC seems to be persistent enough and growing over the last couple of hours and the northern LLC appears to have stopped gaining size and both are pulling together. I'd say center is going to be further south again say somewhere around 15.7N-15.8N.

[wxwatcher1999]

i still think with the current heading he is going to make it west of jamaica