ATL: ISAAC - Models

[wxwatcher1999]

Euro operational, Euro ensembles and GFS Ensembles all heavily favor a northern Gulf coast hit....something like a Dennis 2005 track. I would be preparing if I lived along the northern Gulf coast

http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/3214/12zgfsensemble500mbhght.gif

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http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/713/12zecmwfenstropical500m.gif

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Ivanhater..is it a possibility that it makes it as far west as the upper Texas coast?

*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags
Please remove the IMG tags when quoting posts with images.

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan, already preparing and making plans just in case. Nothing set in stone yet. Just family talk between all of us as to what we will/should do in case it verifies. I still think by Friday night, (after all this info from the p-3 flights and the G-IV flights are ingested into the models) We'll have a much more decisive view as to whats going to happen and where. Hopefully everyone along the peninsula of Fla as well as the gulf central gulf coast are doing the same thing that we are. Its never too early to have a plan in place.

[KWT]

I'd not rule anything out in terms of track just yet, most options are still on the table, though the recurve solution out to sea is just about gone now.

18z GFS comes out fairly soon...

[ROCK]

GFS esembles a little further west but not much....depends on the ridging along the NGOM...in 7 days....Thanks Ivan for posting from Texas!!!

[ROCK]

Euro operational, Euro ensembles and GFS Ensembles all heavily favor a northern Gulf coast hit....something like a Dennis 2005 track. I would be preparing if I lived along the northern Gulf coast

[Ivanhater..is it a possibility that it makes it as far west as the upper Texas coast?

it has no ridging looking at map to keep it going west....but I aint rulling out any possibility after what I saw with IKE....get me within 5 days then I can pretty much narrow down an area....

[LaBreeze]

Euro operational, Euro ensembles and GFS Ensembles all heavily favor a northern Gulf coast hit....something like a Dennis 2005 track. I would be preparing if I lived along the northern Gulf coast

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/12zgfsensemble500mbhght.gif/][img]http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/3214/12zgfsensemble500mbhght.gif[

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[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/19/12zecmwfenstropical500m.gif/][img]http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/713/12zecmwfenstropical500m.gif[

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Ivanhater..is it a possibility that it makes it as far west as the upper Texas coast?

I'm wondering the same thing myself. Already prepared just in case (as everyone should be along the East Coast and the GOM). Not too concerned, but always keeping an eye on the GOM.

[ROCK]

Labreeze when quoting remove the graphics...thanks!!

[SeminoleWind]

doesn't seem like a strong enough ridge on above maps to keep it west, especially if they are forecasting a deepening storm, JMO

[LaBreeze]

Labreeze when quoting remove the graphics...thanks!!

Sorry, I'm in a hurry at the moment - got to run. Will be back on tonight.

[meriland23]

18z GFS 12hrs



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[meriland23]

18z GFS 24hr



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[SouthFLTropics]

I think through 24 hours the GFS is a hair north of the 12z position...could be wrong...

SFT

[meriland23]

18z GFS 36 hr



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[Jevo]

Would be nice if mods didn't allow any such talk about this model is trash or that is trash. It's not productive, petty and tiresome. And even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile anyhow. It is as I have said many times on here why the NHC chooses to use a blend. Lets talk about the merits of why onemodel might be right in this case or why someone thinks another model is right or why the NHC is favoring one over another. But, please lets stop the King Euro, Queen GFS bull.

We're doing our best to keep that "talk" at a minimum. As always, if a Storm 2K member feels a post has broken the rules, you are encouraged to use the report feature and report it to us.

I didn't know it was a rule now. Thanks for pointing that out.

Most of us that do the whole Euro vs GFS banter are doing it in jest and having fun with each other. When things get exceptionally serious, then the banter stops as it always does and the flow of information becomes serious.

On a serious note.... Why does the GFS have to be the Queen.. He wears a crown like a King

[BigB0882]

It seems to have a more northerly component between 12 and 24 hours then it appears to go back to due West between 24 and 36. Maybe this is because of the competing centers?

[Bocadude85]

Im thinking the 18z GFS is gonna be a little further west of the 12z.. just a hunch

[meriland23]

18z GFS 48 hr



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[meriland23]

18z GFS 60 hr



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[Portastorm]

Alright children ... let's stop the cute model graphics war!

Seriously ... let's just all re-focus on the model runs and how they depict Isaac.

[SouthFLTropics]

I couldn't agree with Jevo more...The majority of the back and forth between the GFS and Euro crowd is all in good fun and competition. Some people prefer the Euro, others the GFS. When one is right over the other the respective crowd that is right feels vindicated. I don't see the harm in it when it is all being done in fun. It lightens the mood in here and makes it more enjoyable. I don't ever remember things being so serious and "stiff" in here in years past. I can understand that when a serious situation arises that it is time to cut out the banter and focus on the issue at hand. The bottom line is no one should be listening to any advice we are giving on here and that is why there are disclaimers in our posts...REFER TO THE NHC!!! It would be nice if things would lighten up and be a little more forgiving for someone trying to inject some levity into what may become a serious situation down the road. At that time then we will proceed accordingly...Until then I think things could lighten up a bit.

I'll step off my soapbox and get back to watching the GFS.

Mods, if I'm off base with my post then feel free to delete it. I've been on S2K since 2003 and I'm not trying to cause a controversy here just stating my 2 cents.

SFT