ATL: ISAAC - Models

[jlauderdal]

I'm just glad that no models send it up our way now.
Of course I said that about Irene last year too.

Be careful, you are one g4 mission and a couple of upstream soundings that show a stronger trough and you have this sytem running up the east coast of the united states..i know we have been talking west west west all day but tomorrow it could be east east east.

[Tireman4]

Lets focus on the GFS Model which has been the best model this year and with Isaac. The Euro model is unreliable why don't we talk about the GFS Model, The Nogaps Model, The GFDL Model, and HWRF Model all these models put Issac near Florida. Isaac is looking much better organized this afternoon.

The euro has a very good history, just because tom brady has a few bad games you would never go into the next game feeling safe on defense.

I was about to say that too. I mean, just because it has one bad season...so far, I would not be so quick to throw it out...just my opinion.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, how can you make such a claim when pro mets are discussing it? You're a mod I expect impartial unbiased conversation from mods, explain to me please why you'd make that claim please.

I apologize I posted more about it in the discussion thread this is explicitly for models.

[BigB0882]

I see a lot of things being said that seem a little misleading to me.

1. The Euro is not falling in line with the GFS because it shifted a little East. In the same way the GFS (or any model) is not falling in line with the Euro if it shifts a little West. We are talking 7 or more days out. It would be very rare indeed for a model, any model, to not shift SOMEWHAT from run to run when you are looking out past 5 days. If the model only moves 50-100 miles then, IMO, that is another consistent run. Sure, over time those can add up but you can not make such statement based on one run.

2. The GFS nailed Debby but the Euro has not been trash this year. For people to say that you should throw out the Euro because it is no good or that you should only pay attention to the GFS as if it has been 100% this season are living with a very very short memory. It is dangerous, IMO, to think this way because hugging only one model can lead to a lot of problems.

I will get off my soap box now. I just see some of this stuff being repeated a LOT.

[Aric Dunn]

I see a lot of things being said that seem a little misleading to me.

1. The Euro is not falling in line with the GFS because it shifted a little East. In the same way the GFS (or any model) is not falling in line with the Euro if it shifts a little West. We are talking 7 or more days out. It would be very rare indeed for a model, any model, to not shift SOMEWHAT from run to run when you are looking out past 5 days. If the model only moves 50-100 miles then, IMO, that is another consistent run. Sure, over time those can add up but you can not make such statement based on one run.

2. The GFS nailed Debby but the Euro has not been trash this year. For people to say that you should throw out the Euro because it is no good or that you should only pay attention to the GFS as if it has been 100% this season are living with a very very short memory. It is dangerous, IMO, to think this way because hugging only one model can lead to a lot of problems.

I will get off my soap box now. I just see some of this stuff being repeated a LOT.

well every model does change run to run. but its the trend you pay attention to. the euro shifted east does not mean its falling in line per se but it indicates the euro might see the weakness a little better this run. Also things get repeated because not everyone reads every page and just post.

[Portastorm]

Let me put this even simpler ... anyone who suggests the Euro has been "bad" this year or is "rubbish" or whatever simply isn't dealing with reality. The model continues to score the highest on the 5-day and 6-day dynamical skill ratings for the Northern Hemisphere. Here's a link if you don't believe me:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

Now I have no clue if the Euro will be correct about Isaac but in terms of persons making statements that the Euro is performing poorly ... well, you're flat out clueless and wrong.

[Jevo]

This made it into the discussion thread on accident.. Im so used to being in this thread.

NCEP asking for Balloon sounding every 6 hours starting tomorrow for model input from NWS WFOs FL, GA, AL, and MS

NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Aug 22 14:52:00 2012 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 221451
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1451Z WED AUG 22 2012
THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED THE INITIATION OF
SPECIAL 6 HOURLY SOUNDINGS STARTING AT 18Z THU AUG 23 FROM WFO
SAN JUAN AND ALL OFFICES WITHIN THE FOLLOWING STATES:
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI.
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

[StarmanHDB]

Euro V. GFS....The Great Battle Continues!

Look, the bottom line is that TS Isaac still has a long way to go before any US landfall. Along the way, other than weaving a path through the ridges, the storm will have to deal with serious land interaction thanks Hispaniola and Cuba. This stated, there are so many possibilities that the models are trying to nail down. It's just a question of time.

As a reminder, please remember that although we are all curious and would like to be able to nail down a track and intensity, this storm will affect the lives of many others before affecting the US. Please keep this in your thoughts. I guess that I am getting a tad bit worked-up over this point as I am sitting here watching CNN and the only thing that they are speaking of in regards to TS Isaac is the fact that it may affect the RNC. What about the people who actually live in Florida on a daily basis? They matter too, right?

Anyway, I'm posting this as a reminder to us all that although following the models is interesting (and sometimes controversial), there are many people living underneath all of those spaghetti lines. Let's not forget them wherever they may be.

I'm sorry if this was the wrong place to post this and please forgive me if I am wrong in posting this at all.

Thanks!

[caneman]

Would be nice if mods didn't allow any such talk about this model is trash or that is trash. It's not productive, petty and tiresome. And even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile anyhow. It is as I have said many times on here why the NHC chooses to use a blend. Lets talk about the merits of why onemodel might be right in this case or why someone thinks another model is right or why the NHC is favoring one over another. But, please lets stop the King Euro, Queen GFS bull.

[thetruesms]

Let me put this even simpler ... anyone who suggests the Euro has been "bad" this year or is "rubbish" or whatever simply isn't dealing with reality. The model continues to score the highest on the 5-day and 6-day dynamical skill ratings for the Northern Hemisphere. Here's a link if you don't believe me:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

Now I have no clue if the Euro will be correct about Isaac but in terms of persons making statements that the Euro is performing poorly ... well, you're flat out clueless and wrong.

This page always makes me wish they'd keep stats on a 'hurricane sector' in addition to the tropics and extratropics. Maybe something from 10-40, that spans the two sectors. Yeah, that'd be nice. Of course, in the context of your post, it would change nothing. It's just something that I'd be interested in seeing.

[Portastorm]

Would be nice if mods didn't allow any such talk about this model is trash or that is trash. It's not productive, petty and tiresome. And even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile anyhow. It is as I have said many times on here why the NHC chooses to use a blend. Lets talk about the merits of why onemodel might be right in this case or why someone thinks another model is right or why the NHC is favoring one over another. But, please lets stop the King Euro, Queen GFS bull.

We're doing our best to keep that "talk" at a minimum. As always, if a Storm 2K member feels a post has broken the rules, you are encouraged to use the report feature and report it to us.

[FutureEM]

Sometimes it is productive to call a model "trash", if the inputs are bad then the model is bad. That's why the old saying goes.

"Trash in = Trash Out"

[caneman]

Would be nice if mods didn't allow any such talk about this model is trash or that is trash. It's not productive, petty and tiresome. And even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile anyhow. It is as I have said many times on here why the NHC chooses to use a blend. Lets talk about the merits of why onemodel might be right in this case or why someone thinks another model is right or why the NHC is favoring one over another. But, please lets stop the King Euro, Queen GFS bull.

We're doing our best to keep that "talk" at a minimum. As always, if a Storm 2K member feels a post has broken the rules, you are encouraged to use the report feature and report it to us.

I didn't know it was a rule now. Thanks for pointing that out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Sometimes it is productive to call a model "trash", if the inputs are bad then the model is bad. That's why the old saying goes.

"Trash in = Trash Out"

Well in that case it probably isn't fair to say that the model was bad but instead the information that was put in wasn't good (i.e. bad initialization, etc.) In any case the GFS did outperform the EURO on Debby and most (including Stu at TWC) called it an EPIC FAIL for the Euro. It is rare to see the Euro fall flat so bad like that. With that being said I think that the divergence between the Euro and the GFS is part of the reason that many of us are here on S2K. We like to see the competition and like to see which one will be correct. Right now GFS holds the crown...but I wouldn't put all of my eggs in the GFS basket 100% of the time. Even a broke clock is correct twice a day. Statistically speaking the Euro has been king for many years and has earned the right to that moniker. If we see another failure this time around by the Euro like we did with Debby then I think the GFS may have earned the right to solidly claim it is king.

I do agree though that the models rely on information being put in - Garbage in, Garbage out

SFT

[ObsessedMiami]

Would be nice if mods didn't allow any such talk about this model is trash or that is trash. It's not productive, petty and tiresome. And even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile anyhow. It is as I have said many times on here why the NHC chooses to use a blend. Lets talk about the merits of why onemodel might be right in this case or why someone thinks another model is right or why the NHC is favoring one over another. But, please lets stop the King Euro, Queen GFS bull.

Bryan Norcross was just n TWC and he said the trends are basically meaningless because the storm hasn't given the models enough to properly initialize a start point

[KWT]

Let me put this even simpler ... anyone who suggests the Euro has been "bad" this year or is "rubbish" or whatever simply isn't dealing with reality. The model continues to score the highest on the 5-day and 6-day dynamical skill ratings for the Northern Hemisphere. Here's a link if you don't believe me:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

Now I have no clue if the Euro will be correct about Isaac but in terms of persons making statements that the Euro is performing poorly ... well, you're flat out clueless and wrong.

Its been bad with particular storms, Debby is one that really springs to mind but its not been poor, its been maybe a little off its best in the 'tropics' at times and its well known that it can be a touch too far left but its still a good model, hence why I said earlier you can never discount an ECM solution even if the run is an outlier

[Portastorm]

Would be nice if mods didn't allow any such talk about this model is trash or that is trash. It's not productive, petty and tiresome. And even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile anyhow. It is as I have said many times on here why the NHC chooses to use a blend. Lets talk about the merits of why onemodel might be right in this case or why someone thinks another model is right or why the NHC is favoring one over another. But, please lets stop the King Euro, Queen GFS bull.

We're doing our best to keep that "talk" at a minimum. As always, if a Storm 2K member feels a post has broken the rules, you are encouraged to use the report feature and report it to us.

I didn't know it was a rule now. Thanks for pointing that out.

Easy fella ... I didn't say that it was a rule, did I?!

Ignoring a mod or admin's request and violating the general espirit de corps are, however, two rules which are enforced.

[caneman]

Sometimes it is productive to call a model "trash", if the inputs are bad then the model is bad. That's why the old saying goes.

"Trash in = Trash Out"

I don't see anything wrong with that but there needs to be an explanation and not a total condemnation of a model as whole. Case in point GFS got it right last time but prior to that was totally hammered by some as useless. Who knows, the Canadian might be right next time. NHC uses a blend for a reason and will usually say why they are leaning towards one or several over another. Just don't want people to be misled. Even if say the Euro is right 70% of the time, you must still give credence and weight to the others. IMHO. Back to Isaac.

[SeminoleWind]

seems at first look the NHC track is NEARLY a mirror image to the GFS 12Z

[Ivanhater]

Euro operational, Euro ensembles and GFS Ensembles all heavily favor a northern Gulf coast hit....something like a Dennis 2005 track. I would be preparing if I lived along the northern Gulf coast



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