ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Aric Dunn]

CMC looks pretty close to the UKMO that shows a sharper right turn, which gives the system more time over water and probably better than a long drawn out track over Cuba or on the coast of Cuba like the 12z GFS.

yeah and similar to the gfdl.

[ROCK]

12z EURO around 1:45p (central)

Yes and I am waiting for it like wild coyote looking for dinner!!

[KWT]

CMC looks pretty close to the UKMO that shows a sharper right turn, which gives the system more time over water and probably better than a long drawn out track over Cuba or on the coast of Cuba like the 12z GFS.

yeah and similar to the gfdl.

Yet another swing then from the looks of things, obviously the models are slightly stronger with the developing weakness than the previous runs.

That sort of track would give the system more than enough time to sort out its inner core, or to develop one in the first place.

[Stormlover2012]

Cmc and the Nogaps all made a shift west

[Jevo]

Cmc and the Nogaps all made a shift west

NOGAPS was the far East outlier.. so instead of shifting.. I think a better term would correcting..

[wxman76]

pending the Euro this afternoon I still like a blend of the GFS and Euro. The models with the farthest right solutions have come west today while the GFS shifted only slightly west from yesterday. I think it has the right idea though. I will admit if the Euro doesn't change from the last 2 runs significantly I will be hard pressed to go against it. But the GFS has been consistant too so a blend is probably the best way to go for now.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[KWT]

Cmc and the Nogaps all made a shift west

NOGAPS was the far East outlier.. so instead of shifting.. I think a better term would correcting..

Yep both models have come closer to the consensus, though worth noting they are both still to the east of most of the runs that I've seen recently.

[Weatherfreak000]

What are your guyses opinions (so far) you with Euro, or GFS more?

I think the EURO is looking very good and the GFS is out to lunch. I looked up forecast errors and came to find Isaac is .7 South of where NHC saw it to be two days ago as well as yesterday. If you assume Isaac will always stay about a degree South of track and shreded by shear and dry air I think it will follow EURO's logic, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherboy1]

So we now have the CMC and the NOGAPS converging on a SE FL landfall, or very close to it, and the GFS moving a bit farther E and indicating a landfall on the southern to SW tip of FL and riding pretty much up the state. The ONLY major outlier now is the Euro, so that makes the next run pretty interesting to see. Will all the majors eventually converge on the euro solution of a move much farther into the Gulf? Or will it converge on what all the major models are showing?

I personally think scenario number two is more likely, given that MOST model support is now showing a S FL landfall. But I'm open-minded since we're still talking about 5 days out. Still couldn't hurt to put some extra gas in the car and pick up a case of water at this stage ... because as us Floridians know, things could get pretty crazy by tomorrow afternoon if models are still showing a FL hit at that time!

-Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!

[Stormlover2012]

Gfs isn't more east

[adam0983]

It is east from the morning run of the GFS.

[uhvjaguars22]

I thought it has been shifting west not east

[KWT]

Gfs isn't more east

It is east of the 06z run, not by a huge amount but small details with this sort of track have huge difference does the line.

[HurricaneBrain]

Yesterday the GFS was scraping the east coast of Florida, now it forecasts Isaac to head west of the Florida peninsula. Looks like a west shift to me. Euro has been keeping it's ground...

[SeminoleWind]

Yesterday the GFS was scraping the east coast of Florida, now it forecasts Isaac to head west of the Florida peninsula. Looks like a west shift to me. Euro has been keeping it's ground...

Euro has been the west shifter since yesterday 2AM

[Aric Dunn]

here comes the euro.

[blp]

This feels like a heavyweight fight between the GFS and EURO. All the suspense, with people asking for the time it will run. This is what makes the tropics interesting, who will win out.

[Nimbus]

So the GFS has shifted a little closer to the Florida coastline with the UKMET. Both models cross Hispaniola and spend a fair amount of time over warm SST's north of Cuba.

I don't think they are modeling for a major hurricane in the gulf, not that they should but a stronger storm would have a pronounced effect on the ridge evolution.

Probably why the earlier GFS was tracking further left...

[adam0983]

Great Point exactly.

[blp]

Off Topic: what happened to HURAKAN. He used to post a lot here.