ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Aric Dunn]

gfs for almost two days does not move much stalls over northern florida and southern GA.... just to let you know if isaac were to move slower then its possible the trof brings it into the gulf then leave it behind without a a big bend landfall. I do believe before the euro went into left field it had a stalled ne gulf solution a couple days ago.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS moving it too quickly north again....and too strong. I still don't buy it. I'd be shocked if Isaac can spend that much time over land and not become disrupted.

[meriland23]

what time is euro on

[KWT]

gfs for almost two days does not move much stalls over northern florida and southern GA.... just to let you know if isaac were to move slower then its possible the trof brings it into the gulf then leave it behind without a a big bend landfall. I do believe before the euro went into left field it had a stalled ne gulf solution a couple days ago.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

Almost totally Fay like, except not quite as sharp turn but the basics are nearly identical on this run!!

[Aric Dunn]

this would be a disastrous flooding event for the SE and florida.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Vortex]

And well do this all over again at 5:30

[Stormlover2012]

The trend keeps shifting west

[meriland23]

historically.. Euro is the most accurate this far out...



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[SFLcane]

The trend keeps shifting west

In terms of the 12z models the GFS trended east a bit

[KWT]

The 12z GFS is a touch east long term, though it maybe a tiny bit further west in the short term.

Hard to look past Haiti right now, I wonder what the other models will suggest with regards to the track in the short term.

[wxman76]

12z 48hr GFS clearly has the center of Isaac south of Hispanola where the NHC has it barely offshore. I don't think the difference is much maybe 50 miles or so. Over time it does catch up to NHC but I think it is still slightly west of them. I am looking at the overall model trend not just from the 6z. Yesterdays track had a more onshore look and even brought Isaac close to Miami now it's over the Keys. Personally I still prefer the 00z and 12z models to the 06z and 18z models because they incorporate new UA data. Add the trend of the Nogaps and the 12z early cycle hurricane models and there is a westward trend. I try to look at the big picture over time and over model runs. These things flip flop too much over time so in my head I try to average them out.

[ronjon]

I am truly amazed at the consistency of the GFS. If this model verifies with Issac it will surpass the mighty Euro as the best global model.

[KWT]

It certainly has been impressive ronjon, though they have been generally too far south in the medium range with this system.

[meriland23]

what time does the euro run

[KWT]

I think it should start in about an hour or so meriland23.

[Weatherfreak000]

Impressive? If anything GFS has been ever so stubbornly shifting west everyday, yesterday I believe it was more east and the same the day before that! Way I see it, GFS is gonna buckle to the EURO, and already has been.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO around 1:45p (central)

[Aric Dunn]

cmc joins the rest of the models all major models all have a florida impact except the euro which is just to the west now of everything.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

CMC looks pretty close to the UKMO that shows a sharper right turn, which gives the system more time over water and probably better than a long drawn out track over Cuba or on the coast of Cuba like the 12z GFS.

[meriland23]

What are your guyses opinions (so far) you with Euro, or GFS more?