ATL: ISAAC - Models

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1361 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:30 am

GFS is still very consistent in developing the outflow channels that I have been mentioning the last couple days.

According to the 00Z GFS, as Isaac gets to the N Shore of Cuba, a poleward outflow channel will be set up by the ULL at 28N 59W.

This occurs at 93 hr

As Isaac approaches Miami, the second outflow channel will be setup by the deep UL trough in the mid GOM.

This occurs at 126 hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Including the fact that there is high OHC in the Bahamas, and if Isaac doesn't get torn up by land interaction, well - you know the rest.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 220000.GIF
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#1362 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:32 am

GFS 9 hrs 06z run

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#1363 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:35 am

24 hr

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Re: Re:

#1364 Postby One Eye » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:38 am

Bluefrog wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
meriland23 wrote:
forgive me for being a little ..illiterate when it comes to this stuff, but what does this mean?


The model experts at HPC think that the GFS is suffering feedback problems and moves the trough over central US east too quickly and they favor the Euros output.



That is not good for us in the northern GOM

Shhhhhhh! Speak no evil!!! God I hope they're wrong for our sake Bluefrog!
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#1365 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:39 am

36 hr

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#1366 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:43 am

48 hr

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1367 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:45 am

meriland23 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z models still clustered around the SFL area..

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but when you look at this sort of thing, you wonder why they would favor the euros lonely track.


They like the euro for what is happening with the trough but for the tropical system they like the gfs due to consistency as you can see on the 5 am disco. Overall the modeling has been very consistent especially at 120h, I wont be using the typical error rate at 5 days for this system. The models are on top of the same idea with this system and have been now for a couple of days with the turn. I bet we get special soundings from the NWS offices and combined with the g4 data they are really going to be able to nail it on a 72h forecast. This could turn out to be a very easy forecast on Friday except for intensity but intensity is rarely easy. The most interesting thing will be what happens after cuba and how much it can recover then who gets it in florida then how dramatic of a turn it is. If I were a city with a big convention center I would be on the phone pronto trying to land that bizness.
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#1368 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:47 am

60 hr

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ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1369 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:48 am

06z GFS trending west thru 60 hours
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#1370 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:51 am

tracking slightly faster, more west and very slightly south of the 00z run
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#1371 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:52 am

72 hr

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Re: Re:

#1372 Postby StrongWind » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:
pricetag56 wrote:So what will the nhc do now about the future track i wonder???

They'll probably split the differences.

They'll probably keep the bullseye on Fla a bit longer because of the much shorter time to prepare.
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#1373 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:55 am

84 hr

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#1374 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:00 am

96 hr

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#1375 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:04 am

108 hr

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ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1376 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:06 am

06z GFS still west of 00z thru 120 hours
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Re:

#1377 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:08 am

[quote="meriland23"]120 hr (still going west?)

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#1378 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:12 am

Looks like this run of the GFS is going to be a West Coast rider...still same general idea. Storm approaching Southern tip of peninsula. The difference between West Coast, spine, or East Coast is all about angle of attack from the South.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1379 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:12 am

132 hr heading to E gulf

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ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1380 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:13 am

06z GFS west shift more pronounced thru 138 hours. Looks like it's going into the Gulf
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