ATL: ISAAC - Models

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#1241 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:13 pm

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#1242 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:13 pm

GFS +135 CONUS Landfall

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1243 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:13 pm

ROCK wrote:
Javlin wrote:Intense Cane half way up Kuba now 120hrs.




its 994mb so not that intense...it just went over Hispa, and the Cuban moutains...


I am looking at bars Rock and thought it was Wx57 said globals do not represent true stength,I am wrong?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1244 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:13 pm

That GFS run is looking a lot like Bastardi's prediction from earlier. He had it sliding up the Florida coast and making landfall with 100kt winds around the SC/NC border.
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Re:

#1245 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:13 pm

Jevo wrote:You guys are killing me with all these links LOL... Use imageshack damnit

0z GFS +129 CONUS

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/4888 ... sl129g.gif



stop being lazy..... :lol:
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#1246 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:14 pm

GFS CONUS +141

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1247 Postby blp » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:15 pm

Landfall in Palm beach.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1248 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:15 pm

:uarrow: I'm In Miami Trick...Definite shift East on this run...very much in line with the GFDL. EURO is the FAR LEFT outlier now. Wonder if it will come back in at 00z. Consensus still points to a Southern Peninsula strike.

SFT
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Re: Re:

#1249 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:16 pm

ROCK wrote:
Jevo wrote:You guys are killing me with all these links LOL... Use imageshack damnit

0z GFS +129 CONUS

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/4888 ... sl129g.gif



stop being lazy..... :lol:
[/quote]

I think Rock just hit you with a 404
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Re: Re:

#1250 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:16 pm

ROCK wrote:
Jevo wrote:You guys are killing me with all these links LOL... Use imageshack damnit

0z GFS +129 CONUS

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/4888 ... sl129g.gif



stop being lazy..... :lol:


IKR.. too late for clicky.. Im in total lazy.. let the other people do the work for me mode
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1251 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:16 pm

Javlin wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Javlin wrote:Intense Cane half way up Kuba now 120hrs.




its 994mb so not that intense...it just went over Hispa, and the Cuban moutains...


I am looking at bars Rock and thought it was Wx57 said globals do not represent true stength,I am wrong?



isobars gives us a hint but looking at 132hr it has 994mb....not that intense but I guess it depends on the definition...no model can forecast exact intensity....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1252 Postby blp » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:17 pm

So much for following the euro's trend. This looks more to the right.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1253 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:19 pm

blp wrote:So much for following the euro's trend. This looks more to the right.




yep way different runs....GFS is slowly moving over to the NOGAPS, CMC camp now....
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#1254 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:20 pm

Either the EURO is going to win big over the GFS and all the other models or it's going to bust big time for the second time this year. EURO's GOM solution is sticking out like a sore thumb right now and it has gone all in with it. Will it fold and come back...We'll know in a little over 2 hours.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1255 Postby blp » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:20 pm




its 994mb so not that intense...it just went over Hispa, and the Cuban moutains...


I am looking at bars Rock and thought it was Wx57 said globals do not represent true stength,I am wrong?[/quote]


isobars gives us a hint but looking at 132hr it has 994mb....not that intense but I guess it depends on the definition...no model can forecast exact intensity....


Historically the GFS does not properly show the true intensity. It is stronger than what it shows.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1256 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 pm

I'm wondering if the ridge is being underestimated and we have Isaac hitting either S Florida or getting into the Eastern Gulf and striking the panhandle while very large and clearly developing 96L hits the east coast northeast of Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1257 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 pm

Well @150hrs looks like that this bad boy exploded over FL like FL is covered in water interesting run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1258 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:22 pm

ROCK wrote:
blp wrote:So much for following the euro's trend. This looks more to the right.




yep way different runs....GFS is slowly moving over to the NOGAPS, CMC camp now....


So Rock are you saying that NOGAPS and CMC may have had this right all along??? What a coup that would be for those models. I'm going on my gut but I don't think you will see GFS go much further East. Maybe back west a hair. I'm thinking right up the spine of the state. GFS and the consensus are locking in on a solution.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1259 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:22 pm

blp wrote:



its 994mb so not that intense...it just went over Hispa, and the Cuban moutains...


I am looking at bars Rock and thought it was Wx57 said globals do not represent true stength,I am wrong?



isobars gives us a hint but looking at 132hr it has 994mb....not that intense but I guess it depends on the definition...no model can forecast exact intensity....


Historically the GFS does not properly show the true intensity. It is stronger than what it shows.[/quote]


yeah depends what resolution you are looking at also...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1260 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:23 pm

0z GFS + 165 .. Just a trip up the spine of Florida

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