ATL: ISAAC - Models

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LaBreeze
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Re:

#901 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:20 pm

meriland23 wrote:Looks like it is walking its way to the G, much further south

"G" as in Gulf of Mexico?
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Re: Re:

#902 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:21 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
meriland23 wrote:Looks like it is walking its way to the G, much further south

"G" as in Gulf of Mexico?


yes
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#903 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:22 pm

Image
Last edited by InstantWeatherMaps on Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#904 Postby Houstonia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:22 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Might as well look at IKE's early forecast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Still many days out and much can and will occur with the forecast path.



Oh I really liked that - I tried to find loops for other storms, but other than delving into the archive folders, I have no idea where to go - where can I find a main page for those loops?
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#905 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:23 pm

12z ECMWF (Euro)

+120

Image
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#906 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:23 pm

120 hours between cuba and jamaica heading wnw to NW ... so far little change from 00z/
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#907 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:26 pm

That 120hr mark looks significantly further south than GFS...
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#908 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:26 pm

the isobars between the euro and gfs are sooooo drastically different
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#909 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:28 pm

Seems like the EURO is saying that land interaction with Haiti/DR will disrupt it and it continues further west from there.
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#910 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:28 pm

Is it just me or does this seem like a fairly tight clustering of models for so far out? Seems like a fairly narrow "cone" diameter overall, generally pointed at the FL peninsula or slightly E or W. Not many outliers save the CMC or NOGAPS...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif
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Re:

#911 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:29 pm

Jevo wrote:12z ECMWF (Euro)

+120

Image
THis model looks to be trying to kill it off or weaken it substantially.
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Re:

#912 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:31 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:Is it just me or does this seem like a fairly tight clustering of models for so far out? Seems like a fairly narrow "cone" diameter overall, generally pointed at the FL peninsula or slightly E or W. Not many outliers save the CMC or NOGAPS...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif


I would lean more toward the west of the peninsula.. SFWMD doesn't include the EURO and its ensembles I believe?
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#913 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:31 pm

12z ECMWF (Euro)

+144

Image
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Re:

#914 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:32 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:Is it just me or does this seem like a fairly tight clustering of models for so far out? Seems like a fairly narrow "cone" diameter overall, generally pointed at the FL peninsula or slightly E or W. Not many outliers save the CMC or NOGAPS...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif


yes it is, for the first 72 hours after that there is quite a spread. that map does not include the euro.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#915 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:32 pm

Question, would the left or right of FL hinder futher development
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#916 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:33 pm

Looks like the 12z EURO is going to be close to the 00z run...From just looking at that 144 hr panel.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#917 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:33 pm

Image
12z
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#918 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:33 pm

I think he will keep going west for a little longer than the 00z showed?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Last edited by JPmia on Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#919 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:34 pm

144 hours after being to close to land for the euro can resolve it clearly has survived and appears stronger than when it was near Jamaica. still wnw to NW weakness not as apparent this run but still beginning to open up. turn should happen next image.
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#920 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:34 pm

Looks wnw. GFS and EURO very different now. High pressure looks strong as well...
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