ATL: ISAAC - Models

[petit_bois]

guys dont be suprise if it keeps shifting west

I am no expert by any stretch but i can read that setup and i couldn't see it going any further west than panhandle.

That's what the experts were saying about Katrina 3 days before landfall. 4 days out they had her brushing the east coast of Fl.

the better models are very good at 72hrs and in... They are very iffy over 100hrs.

[jlauderdal]

I don't understand why the models assume this will maintain such strength.. if not gain.. it is going over more land than water, and land = cyclone killer..

dont kill yourself trying to figure out intensity, its still a mystery even to NHC

[Jevo]

I don't understand why the models assume this will maintain such strength.. if not gain.. it is going over more land than water, and land = cyclone killer..

Remember that south Florida is extremely flat and there is a lot of water inland--including the Everglades. Many storms have wandered over the peninsula without substantial weakening.

ie Katrina.. However I believe the OP was referring to the trek that TD9 would have to take across Cuba, which has plenty of mountains

[Riptide]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

[ROCK]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

CMC still sticking to its guns....wont give it up....this is like 4-5 runs in a row....has always been the right outlier along with the NOGAPS....

speaking of NOGAPS.....12Z run

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[jlauderdal]

guys dont be suprise if it keeps shifting west

I am no expert by any stretch but i can read that setup and i couldn't see it going any further west than panhandle.

That's what the experts were saying about Katrina 3 days before landfall. 4 days out they had her brushing the east coast of Fl.

the better models are very good at 72hrs and in... They are very iffy over 100hrs.

folks, we go through this over and over...average track error at 5 days is around 300 miles, be happy if you are the little dot on the map at 5 days..that being said, we have decent model agreement on this one so far; it appears something is coming between 75W-85W...if you are the dot at 3 days than go buy gas for your generator and be ready for effects, their tracks at three days are very good, intensity on this one very tricky with the land interaction even if it goes over central cooba, how long is it over, shear in 6 days, etc.

[SoupBone]

guys dont be suprise if it keeps shifting west

I am no expert by any stretch but i can read that setup and i couldn't see it going any further west than panhandle.

That's what the experts were saying about Katrina 3 days before landfall. 4 days out they had her brushing the east coast of Fl.

the better models are very good at 72hrs and in... They are very iffy over 100hrs.

That was also in 2005 (7 years ago). Technology has drastically increased the prediction capabilities within the 72 hour landfall area.

[Javlin]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


When look at the GFS the front seems to linger till the system shows up S of Cuba basically then some low develops of the coast of the Carolina's pulling NNE as the front lifts out this is the weakness right?but what if the low doesn't develop or is as significant as presented?

[Comanche]

That's what the experts were saying about Katrina 3 days before landfall. 4 days out they had her brushing the east coast of Fl.

the better models are very good at 72hrs and in... They are very iffy over 100hrs.

Yep......... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

[Bocadude85]

That's what the experts were saying about Katrina 3 days before landfall. 4 days out they had her brushing the east coast of Fl.

the better models are very good at 72hrs and in... They are very iffy over 100hrs.

Yep......... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

I do not see anywhere on there that shows a forecast of Katrina brushing the Fla east coast.... they forecast her to make landfall in south florida and she did.

[Jevo]

Here goes the Euro

+24


+48

[InstantWeatherMaps]

ECMWF 72:

[KatDaddy]

Might as well look at IKE's early forecast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Still many days out and much can and will occur with the forecast path.

[KQ]

I am really not good at this.....but is it gone at the 72 hour? Or do i just not know what i am looking at?

[Bocadude85]

I am really not good at this.....but is it gone at the 72 hour? Or do i just not know what i am looking at?

Its there.. south of Hispanola

[Jevo]

12z ECMWF (Euro)

+72



+96

[meriland23]

Looks like it is walking its way to the G, much further south

[Weatherfreak000]

Too far north. Bad run. Two lows? I don't get what the EURO sees..

[tolakram]

Looks like every low has 2 L's associated with it. Some kind of feedback issue with this run? Are there run notes associated with this anywhere?

[Aric Dunn]

Too far north. Bad run. Two lows? I don't get what the EURO sees..

not to lows just interacting with land. just pay attention to track not strength.