ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jevo]

Initial landfall in the keys at +147



+159 Riding the coast



+165 Still enjoying a trip up the coast past Ft Myers



+171 The new keynote speaker at the Republican National convention in Tampa Bay

[meriland23]

yeah. but it is only a TS on these runs, only like 996 mb?

That looks considerably more than a TS...Look at those isobars!!!

SFT

Yeah, but it is over land..

[JPmia]

To me there is still lots of uncertainty on how it will deal the mountains of Haiti/DR and then eastern Cuba.. looks like the trend in the latest 12z GFS is to take it a little further south and away from those mountains, but it is still close enough for disruptions to occur.. next up is the EURO .. i suspect will be the same as 00z or even further to the west.. just a suspicion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

I still didn't see a response to my comment about the GFS ensembles...

If the majority of the ensembles moved East but the operational moved West as is the case why would that be???

Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.

SFT

[Weatherboy1]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the models waffle a bit east or west with each run. We are talking about a system that's still ROUGHLY six days away from South FL. What has me concerned, however, is the consistency of several models to point at the general vicinity of SE or SW FL. We're not seeing hugely dramatic swings -- like into Belize one run, "Fish" the next, etc. What is almost certain is that we will have enough of a weakness in the ridge around days 5-7 to help this system start recurving to the north. Just my opinion, as always!

[Bocadude85]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the models waffle a bit east or west with each run. We are talking about a system that's still ROUGHLY six days away from South FL. What has me concerned, however, is the consistency of several models to point at the general vicinity of SE or SW FL. We're not seeing hugely dramatic swings -- like into Belize one run, "Fish" the next, etc. What is almost certain is that we will have enough of a weakness in the ridge around days 5-7 to help this system start recurving to the north. Just my opinion, as always!

Agree and the diffrence between a SE or SW Fla landfall is a very small amount of longitude... especially when coming from the south.

[meriland23]

228 hrs


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal228.gif

[SunnyThoughts]

Once recon gets in there a few times, and the system develops a little bit more, the models will get a better handle on it. It is a wait and see thing like always with these storms. At least we don't have one model headed to Texas and One curving out to sea well before the east coast...meaning they are in a fair amount of agreement now. Zero'ing in on either the W coast of Fla or the East Coast.

[scogor]

Which doesn't exactly thrill us Floridians!

[meriland23]

I don't understand why the models assume this will maintain such strength.. if not gain.. it is going over more land than water, and land = cyclone killer..

[tolakram]

I still didn't see a response to my comment about the GFS ensembles...

If the majority of the ensembles moved East but the operational moved West as is the case why would that be???

Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.

SFT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting

I'm not sure there is any one correct answer. Ensembles are simply a scattering of different parameters, what ifs, so it may indicate the next run could swing east, or it could mean the operational picked the correct solution and all the variable parameters won't happen. As far as operational reliability, I think it does show that the output is less reliable than it would be if the ensembles were more tightly grouped. Tight grouping means outcome is easier to forecast, but that does not mean the operational is wrong.

[Stormlover2012]

guys dont be suprise if it keeps shifting west

[tolakram]

guys dont be suprise if it keeps shifting west

Reasoning?

[Blown Away]

12z Models

[ROCK]

I've seen it often times when the Op goes against the ensembles - maybe it has to do with how they are weighted. There are a few things that strike me odd about this run though. This has our eastern atlantic low at a higher latitude that you would think given where it is now (as Rock said), but at the same time keeps future td 10 like 20 degrees east of "Isaac." You would think that the weakness that allows 09L to turn north then get caught in a COL would then lift "Joyce" north as well instead of letting it linger to the east. Seems to be some things that don't add up. The postion of 09L may be close to the truth (though it's many days away) but it's what is going on around it that is puzzling.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah doesnt sniff right to me.....96L is a pretty good clip away and to catch up to TD9 seems unrealistic....the BH has been mighty strong and at that low of lat 96L is going to pull up that much??....

[SeminoleWind]

guys dont be suprise if it keeps shifting west

I am no expert by any stretch but i can read that setup and i couldn't see it going any further west than panhandle.

[scogor]

I don't understand why the models assume this will maintain such strength.. if not gain.. it is going over more land than water, and land = cyclone killer..

Remember that south Florida is extremely flat and there is a lot of water inland--including the Everglades. Many storms have wandered over the peninsula without substantial weakening.

[meriland23]

this all boils down to whether or not it passes over cubas mtns or south of... could make the difference between minor and major

[SeminoleWind]

I don't understand why the models assume this will maintain such strength.. if not gain.. it is going over more land than water, and land = cyclone killer..

Remember that south Florida is extremely flat and there is a lot of water inland--including the Everglades. Many storms have wandered over the peninsula without substantial weakening.

Yes this is true we all remember FAY here very well, that actually maintained and gained a little strength over land.And in the process flooded half the state.

[psyclone]

I don't understand why the models assume this will maintain such strength.. if not gain.. it is going over more land than water, and land = cyclone killer..

Remember that south Florida is extremely flat and there is a lot of water inland--including the Everglades. Many storms have wandered over the peninsula without substantial weakening.

in addition, the model depicts a coastal scraping...leaving at least half of the storm over water as it engages the peninsula. a run up the spine of the peninsula would probably induce greater weakening.