ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Javlin]

90% of the spagetti's have it on a slight N of W course ATM and it looks due W or ever so slight S of W if I had to guess 14.8/9N now?

[SouthFLTropics]

Some very important model runs coming up this afternoon. Does the GFS move more East to be in line with the ensembles??? Does the EURO continue it's trek to the West side of FLA??? So much Drama this could be a reality show!!!

SFT

[artist]

I will be waiting to see the models after the recon flight as they will have the info from them ingested and should, hopefully give everyone a better feel of what it might do.

[petit_bois]

I try not to get overly excited until i'm in the 72hr cone... I've been in way to may 120hr cones. Let alone 156hr model runs.

[WeatherOrKnot]

When will recon fly?

[Nimbus]

With the Republican national convention in Tampa this weekend you have to wonder if they might delay a sweep left in model tracks until they get a better handle on the ridging?

Looks like a stall off Cape Canaveral for a couple days as it bucks up into the ridge. cough cough

[Javlin]

I try not to get overly excited until i'm in the 72hr cone... I've been in way to may 120hr cones. Let alone 156hr model runs.

I hear ya just abit uneasy though....don't know why.I never watch them this far out hard like I am?

[caneman]

I would add that Hisp. will many times throw a wrench into the models. So, not concerned until I see that it will miss North or South of the tropical system destroyer.

[BensonTCwatcher]

From Wilmington NC today: Interesting juxtaposition

FXUS62 KILM 211400
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

Editied for bevity .....DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE WKND AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AND 850MB TEMPS WARM. ADDITIONALLY...DRIER AIR NOTED IN SOUNDINGS
AND BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THETA-E VALUES SUGGEST MORE AMPLE
LATE-AUGUST INSOLATION. THESE ALL SUPPORT TEMPS RISING TO AROUND
CLIMO...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE...EVEN THOUGH MINS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW THANKS TO BETTER NIGHTTIME RADIATING EFFECTS. BY
LATE IN THE WKND AND MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE AND BECOME ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS RIDGING TO DEVELOP
IN THE EAST...ECMWF SHOWS A RETURN TO THE PERSISTENT EAST COAST
TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED US MUCH OF THIS MONTH. WILL SHOW A RETURN
TO COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...LIKE THE ECMWF...DUE TO
ITS CONSISTENCY AND HPC ADVICE.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS rolling...Looks to have initialized pretty good...

SFT

[Bocadude85]

24HR approaching the islands

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical024.gif

[Bocadude85]

36HR passing through the Leewards

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical036.gif

[Betrock]

ReCon flies this afternoon sometime, I think.

See Cycloneye's post in ATL 9 RECON for the 'game plan'

[Bocadude85]

48HR passing south of PR

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical048.gif

[Bocadude85]

60HR passing south of DR

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical060.gif

[Bocadude85]

72HR South of DR

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical072.gif

[Javlin]

The NHC seems to be taking southern route it seems following trends and the ECM??



http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

[SouthFLTropics]

Operational GFS does not seem to be following the majority of the ensembles...interesting.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

The NHC seems to be taking southern route it seems following trends and the ECM??



http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092012.png

Whats the OFCI? looks very similar to the NHC track but just extended out some.

[JPmia]

Operational GFS does not seem to be following the majority of the ensembles...interesting.

SFT

yeah it looks like it is a little further to the south of DR and Haiti on this run.. question will be now how much will that island's mountains impact the circulation going forward