ATL: ISAAC - Models

[caneman]

Rock,

I would follow GFS then Euro. Either over the GFDL though. Either way, not worried about it here yet this far out. I onlysstart to get concerned 3 days out, even then, Charley changed course with 12 - 24 hours out to just miss us. I betcha the City and Republicans (Republican National Convention starts this weekend) are starting to sweat a little.

[Stormlover2012]

Everyone on this gfs bandwagon lol

[SeminoleWind]

For what its worth 7 day surface Analysis

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...


FRI-MON...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
ITS WEAKENING TREND AND SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
FRI. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINING NORTH OF THE PENINSULA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TROPICS AS THE GFS REMAINS ADAMANT
IN BRINGING QUICKLY NORTHWARD A SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA ON SAT AND
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS/SOUTHERN FLORIDA TIP BY SUN NIGHT. THIS
REMAINS A QUICKER SOLUTION THAN MANY MODELS AND THE LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWS A BIT OF RECURVATURE NOW WITH THE SYSTEM WORKING UP THE EAST
FLORIDA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEREAS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT IT RAN
IT UP THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A MUCH SLOWER SPEED AND TAKES THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE TUE OF NEXT WEEK AND MUCH STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE CURRENT GRIDS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND KEEP NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE.





SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

[ROCK]

06Z NOGAPS which has showed a storm moving up and out to sea for many runs now....I sure hope it doesnt get it right or we all might have to start worshipping the NOGAPS...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

NOGAPS doesn't appear to have initialized well at all...Seems to move it WNW to NW immediately. That is definitely not the case. I don't think we need to worry about NOGAPS pulling an upset over King GFS and Queen EURO

SFT

[Dean4Storms]

So far the ECMWF is gauging the strength of the ridge better with the 00z run showing a more due westerly course whereas the GFS has TD9 gaining latitude already. The GFS seems to me to be under estimating the ridge just a bit. Run both models and see for yourself.

[CrazyC83]

NOGAPS doesn't appear to have initialized well at all...Seems to move it WNW to NW immediately. That is definitely not the case. I don't think we need to worry about NOGAPS pulling an upset over King GFS and Queen EURO

SFT

If GFS is a King and EURO is a Queen, then NOGAPS is a Joker. That model I tend to always disregard.

[Stormlover2012]

Lol Nogaps is like the worst baseball player in the game but can get lucky sometimes ..euro is like pujos struggled at beginning of the yr but has done better and will be back on top , gfs is like Bryce Harper hot at beginning of the yr and will struggle the last 2 months

[ROCK]

the CMC and NOGAPS have been on this recurve camp for many runs now.....though every run comes in a little more south than the others it takes it up and out eventually thru the Bahamas.

[Stormlover2012]

This could end up in mexico we just don't know

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS 06z run has the center well above 15N by this point......

12 hr position from the 06Z run.......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal012.gif

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 00z 18hour position......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal018.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS 06z run has the center well above 15N by this point......

12 hr position from the 06Z run.......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal012.gif

If the EURO is indeed reading the ridge a bit better than the GFS then perhaps, just perhaps, the EURO can regain the crown and become king again. It has to do something to restore Rock's faith in it after the Debby debacle...

SFT

[Jevo]

The GFS Spaghetti looks a llttle to the right of the previous run at 2am.

[Bocadude85]

So far the ECMWF is gauging the strength of the ridge better with the 00z run showing a more due westerly course whereas the GFS has TD9 gaining latitude already. The GFS seems to me to be under estimating the ridge just a bit. Run both models and see for yourself.

No one model is going to be 100% accurate.. if you average the GFS and EURO together you end up with the system moving up the spine of Florida.

[ROCK]

GFS ensembles are squeezing back together now and even more so on the east coast of FL....all hail the NOGAPS....

[CrazyC83]

Once the Gulfstream IV flies around, that should tell the tale. Once models latch to that, it becomes more serious.

[artist]

I want to thank all that take the time and post the model runs for us here and with each storm. It really helps us all out alot!

[JPmia]

Once the Gulfstream IV flies around, that should tell the tale. Once models latch to that, it becomes more serious.

Yeah that's what I will be looking for as well.. they will begin feeding this data into the models following those flights and we'll get a much better idea on the strength of the ridge. Anyone have an idea as to when they will fly these missions in the coming days ahead?