ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

I was thinking about pulling the trigger on this last night, but I don't give out the stamp to just anything. In fact this is only the 2nd time this season and we're on 9. However... with the 6z GFS run, the way the convection has persisted, and the threat to land. TD9 bears watching and now gets the stamp.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

TD#9 appears to be tracking wsw,or is it just me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
I think it just has consolidated the center to the south. The overall system is moving west.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It seems like when systems hit 50 longitude a switch comes on.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 51.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Dean4Storms]

Hope our Caribbean friends stay safe and that all Florida residents west to MS. keep up to date and check their supplies and plans. This one has a large envelope and much high ocean heat content ahead of it especially in the Gulf!

[tolakram]

11:15Z (7:15 EDT)

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks much better than last night. Very nice banding pattern:



Microwave confirms this:

[cycloneye]

Well folks, I wont be on the board for most of today as I always do as dutie calls for preparations with family.

[Blown Away]

Well folks, I wont be on the board for most of today as I always do as dutie calls for preparations with family.

You know the drill, personally I'm not comfortable that track is going south of you!! We will cover for you!

[Dean4Storms]

I have to say an Ivan type track is not out of the question here either. With Ivan early on while in the Carib. the ridge over the Florida Peninsula and Bahamas was also expected to weaken more and turn the Storm more toward the Spine of the Peninsula and we all know the Ridge wasn't so weak which put it over in the Eastern Gulf. Don't discount that possibility here.

[SouthDadeFish]

Stay safe Luis. Personally, I am very concerned for Haiti. They have been spared by significant tropical cyclones since the earthquake, but I am afraid that may soon change.... Who knows, a lot can change over the next few days. This storm will most likely affect many people, and everyone in the Caribbean and SE US should keep a close eye on it, in my opinion.

[Tampa_God]

The RNC must be dreading the timing at forecasted path at the moment. It may change, but still not a good sign.

[northjaxpro]

Already, we are seeing the "windshield wiper" effect with the GFS runs. A couple of days ago, the model had the center of soon to be Issac moving north along the West Coast of the Florida peninsula in the end of the 7 day period. Now, this morning's run shows it moving up along the East Coast of the state. We will see this shift around I am sure with the models in the days to come.

Long days and nights ahead tracking this storm folks coming up.

[northjaxpro]

Be safe Cycloneye and your family. My thoughts and prayers to all down there in the Caribbean who will feel the impacts of Issac first and foremost.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Bottom say it will be, but reminds me of Irene same area and time, models shifting east...déjà by for me!

[LCfromFL]

Stay safe, Louis (and to all of our friends in the Caribbean)! I had surgery on Thursday, so now I have something to do with myself while recovering - I'll be watching (soon-to-be) Isaac.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Already, we are seeing the "windshield wiper" effect with the GFS runs. A couple of days ago, the model had the center of soon to be Issac moving north along the West Coast of the Florida peninsula in the end of the 7 day period. Now, this morning's run shows it moving up along the East Coast of the state. We will see this shift around I am sure with the models in the days to come.

Long days and nights ahead tracking this storm folks coming up.

Actually I think overall the GFS has been extremely consistant with this system.

[weatherwindow]

Cleo's track certainly is a good looking analog for the first part of the track, I don't think TD9 will curve up so sharply through Cuba, I think it'll be a touch further west and a more gentle curve up through say central Cuba, just into the Gulf.

Frankly this is a tough call however, such small differences in track will lead to a massive change in strength down the line.

If 00Z GFS or some approximation of it verifies(Cleo 2.0), it will arrive on the same day!...08/27...48 years later...but we will certainly see considerable fine tuning with the timing and strength of the all important short-wave. FWIW, the most interesting feature from a modelling perspective will be the evolution of the Euro. Currently, it is somethng of a left outlier on days 4 and 5.However, the big question for Fla is which model, the GFS or Euro, better reflects the timing and depth of the shortwave and the ridging still extant as the storm approaches 80deg W. This certainly is the most significant threat to the tri-county area(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) since 2004...Rich

[Gustywind]

21/1145 UTC 15.1N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 09L
21/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.3W T1.5/1.5 94L

[Blown Away]

Gut feeling we are going to need this map!