ATL: ISAAC - Models

[northjaxpro]

I know I said this earlier but I think Hurricane Cleo is a great analog for the storm the GFS is showing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png

Especially if 94L takes a track just south of Hispaniola. If the system does that, it could indeed resemble Cleo very much if the GFS verifies with these runs.

[Bocadude85]

One thing the models are not taking into account is the current south of due west movement, which in the long run could be important

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yeah it dropped alot today......hauling right long the 15N marker....if it comes in south it could miss the weakness. Just a possibility....hard to go against the GFS now with all runs right around the same area....

The GFS did initialize this at 15n so I would think if the system stays around 15n then we would still get a similar scenario... just my opinion though

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical000.gif

[ROCK]

for fun the 0Z NAM takes 94L into the DR where it would likely get shredded.....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Riptide]

for fun the 0Z NAM takes 94L into the DR where it would likely get shredded.....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Posting it for the lolz eh, NAM is a horrible tropical model.

[ROCK]

for fun the 0Z NAM takes 94L into the DR where it would likely get shredded.....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Posting it for the lolz eh, NAM is a horrible tropical model.

yeah after being here for 8 years, I picked up on the NAM being horrible in the tropics....


end run of the 0Z NOGAPS....up and out

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cpdaman]

94L may pull a track similar to Hurricane Cleo in 1964

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

definitely potential

[brunota2003]

I can't help but think of Ernesto, and how the models kept originally lifting him out every run...and look where that got him!

[SeminoleWind]

00Z Euro rolling now

[ROCK]

00Z CMC up and out near DR and into the Bahamas....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif


EURO out 24hrs...

[Meso]

Here's the long range CMC

[ROCK]

NOGAPS and CMC are the right outliers now.....

[ROCK]

72hr EURO.....under PR.....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


as compared to the 12Z run this is further south


12Z EURO run at 96hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

[ROCK]

120hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


12Z at 120hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[Riptide]

120hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


12Z at 120hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

Seeing big changes with the ridging there.

[ROCK]

yeah holds it longer.....wish the EURO would update faster...I need to sleep....

[ROCK]

144

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif



12Z 144hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

[ROCK]

over water longer and on top of Jamiaca.....998mb....its ramping up....here we go...


168hr
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif


168hr 12Z

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Watch that trough approaching from the midwest US erode the ridge...As always, timing will be everything...

SFT