ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#621 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:01 pm

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 210056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120821 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120821  0000   120821  1200   120822  0000   120822  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  48.8W   15.9N  52.0W   16.5N  55.2W   17.1N  59.0W
BAMD    15.3N  48.8W   15.6N  51.7W   15.8N  54.5W   16.1N  57.4W
BAMM    15.3N  48.8W   15.6N  52.0W   15.9N  55.1W   16.2N  58.5W
LBAR    15.3N  48.8W   15.6N  52.5W   16.0N  56.1W   16.2N  59.9W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          48KTS          58KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          48KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120823  0000   120824  0000   120825  0000   120826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  62.9W   19.8N  71.3W   20.6N  78.7W   20.1N  83.7W
BAMD    16.5N  60.1W   17.8N  64.8W   19.3N  67.7W   20.9N  69.4W
BAMM    16.7N  61.8W   18.7N  68.6W   21.2N  74.3W   23.2N  78.7W
LBAR    16.5N  63.5W   17.5N  69.8W   19.5N  74.8W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        69KTS          84KTS          89KTS          88KTS
DSHP        69KTS          84KTS          72KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR =  48.8W DIRCUR = 271DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  15.5N LONM12 =  44.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 =  40.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#622 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:07 pm

Image
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#623 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

Slight shift to the right.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#624 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:06 pm

18Z NOGAPS- looks better than earlier runs... approaches PR but then turns out to sea....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes   
Top
Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

#625 Postby Caribwxgirl » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:06 pm

Any more recent spaghetti's?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#626 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:08 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#627 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:09 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote:Any more recent spaghetti's?



go here....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
0 likes   
Top
San Felipe II
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:58 am

ATL: INVEST 94L

#628 Postby San Felipe II » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:41 pm

000
WHXX01 KWBC 210056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000 120822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 48.8W 15.9N 52.0W 16.5N 55.2W 17.1N 59.0W
BAMD 15.3N 48.8W 15.6N 51.7W 15.8N 54.5W 16.1N 57.4W
BAMM 15.3N 48.8W 15.6N 52.0W 15.9N 55.1W 16.2N 58.5W
LBAR 15.3N 48.8W 15.6N 52.5W 16.0N 56.1W 16.2N 59.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS 58KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120823 0000 120824 0000 120825 0000 120826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 62.9W 19.8N 71.3W 20.6N 78.7W 20.1N 83.7W
BAMD 16.5N 60.1W 17.8N 64.8W 19.3N 67.7W 20.9N 69.4W
BAMM 16.7N 61.8W 18.7N 68.6W 21.2N 74.3W 23.2N 78.7W
LBAR 16.5N 63.5W 17.5N 69.8W 19.5N 74.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 69KTS 84KTS 89KTS 88KTS
DSHP 69KTS 84KTS 72KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 48.8W DIRCUR = 271DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 40.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#629 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:39 pm

24 HRS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical024.gif
0 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#630 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:39 pm

ship want make it hurr
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#631 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:43 pm

36HR approaching the Leewards

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical036.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#632 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:47 pm

54HR passing south of Puerto Rico

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical054.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#633 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:54 pm

72HR south of the DR

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical072.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#634 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:56 pm



Looks like a carbon copy of the past few runs through 72 but a touch farther south
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#635 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:58 pm

84HR passing south of Haiti

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical084.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#636 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 pm

Keeping south of Hispaniola will likely help ramp this thing up near cuba
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#637 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 pm

96HR heading for Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#638 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 pm

Look at that wide open door from Texas all the way to the Bahamas.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#639 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:08 pm

114HR landfall east central Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical114.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:
Contact Riptide

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#640 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:09 pm

Distinctively further east than the 18z run, mabye a Florida coastal rider on this run.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests