ATL: ISAAC - Models

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#621 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:01 pm

00z Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 210056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120821 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120821  0000   120821  1200   120822  0000   120822  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  48.8W   15.9N  52.0W   16.5N  55.2W   17.1N  59.0W
BAMD    15.3N  48.8W   15.6N  51.7W   15.8N  54.5W   16.1N  57.4W
BAMM    15.3N  48.8W   15.6N  52.0W   15.9N  55.1W   16.2N  58.5W
LBAR    15.3N  48.8W   15.6N  52.5W   16.0N  56.1W   16.2N  59.9W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          48KTS          58KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          48KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120823  0000   120824  0000   120825  0000   120826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  62.9W   19.8N  71.3W   20.6N  78.7W   20.1N  83.7W
BAMD    16.5N  60.1W   17.8N  64.8W   19.3N  67.7W   20.9N  69.4W
BAMM    16.7N  61.8W   18.7N  68.6W   21.2N  74.3W   23.2N  78.7W
LBAR    16.5N  63.5W   17.5N  69.8W   19.5N  74.8W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        69KTS          84KTS          89KTS          88KTS
DSHP        69KTS          84KTS          72KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR =  48.8W DIRCUR = 271DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  15.5N LONM12 =  44.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 =  40.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#622 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:07 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#623 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

Slight shift to the right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#624 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:06 pm

18Z NOGAPS- looks better than earlier runs... approaches PR but then turns out to sea....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#625 Postby Caribwxgirl » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:06 pm

Any more recent spaghetti's?
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#626 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:08 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
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Re:

#627 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:09 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote:Any more recent spaghetti's?



go here....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
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ATL: INVEST 94L

#628 Postby San Felipe II » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:41 pm

000
WHXX01 KWBC 210056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000 120822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 48.8W 15.9N 52.0W 16.5N 55.2W 17.1N 59.0W
BAMD 15.3N 48.8W 15.6N 51.7W 15.8N 54.5W 16.1N 57.4W
BAMM 15.3N 48.8W 15.6N 52.0W 15.9N 55.1W 16.2N 58.5W
LBAR 15.3N 48.8W 15.6N 52.5W 16.0N 56.1W 16.2N 59.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS 58KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120823 0000 120824 0000 120825 0000 120826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 62.9W 19.8N 71.3W 20.6N 78.7W 20.1N 83.7W
BAMD 16.5N 60.1W 17.8N 64.8W 19.3N 67.7W 20.9N 69.4W
BAMM 16.7N 61.8W 18.7N 68.6W 21.2N 74.3W 23.2N 78.7W
LBAR 16.5N 63.5W 17.5N 69.8W 19.5N 74.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 69KTS 84KTS 89KTS 88KTS
DSHP 69KTS 84KTS 72KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 48.8W DIRCUR = 271DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 40.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#629 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:39 pm

24 HRS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical024.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#630 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:39 pm

ship want make it hurr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#631 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:43 pm

36HR approaching the Leewards

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical036.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#632 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:47 pm

54HR passing south of Puerto Rico

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical054.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#633 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:54 pm

72HR south of the DR

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical072.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#634 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:56 pm



Looks like a carbon copy of the past few runs through 72 but a touch farther south
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#635 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:58 pm

84HR passing south of Haiti

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical084.gif
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#636 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 pm

Keeping south of Hispaniola will likely help ramp this thing up near cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#637 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 pm

96HR heading for Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif
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#638 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:01 pm

Look at that wide open door from Texas all the way to the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#639 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:08 pm

114HR landfall east central Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical114.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#640 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:09 pm

Distinctively further east than the 18z run, mabye a Florida coastal rider on this run.
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