ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

the ROCK smells no "red meatball" tonight.....the lone tstorm poofed rather quickly....maybe tomorrow or late late tonight but right now it is struggling.....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A tropical storm is able to survive the crossing of mountainous terrain much easier than a well-developed hurricane. When a strong tropical cyclone crosses mountainous terrain, its well-built circulation is disrupted and sometimes takes day to recover. In the case of a moderate tropical storm however, it's circulation isn't exactly strong and well-built, and thus it only weakens slightly unless it stalls or crosses while enduring strong wind shear.

[wxman57]

I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday.

This time they wont wait for the plane right? In fact,the plane tommorow afternoon may find TS Issac but is only my opinion.

[Caribwxgirl]

I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday.

Why do you think so? Just trying to understand this stuff

[ROCK]

I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday.

I agree since its so close to the islands the NHC should pull the trigger very soon just to be safe. this has the potential to fire off and go to TD or TS status and its better not to get caught off guard....I said potential not that I am expecting it to any time soon...its got some issues to work out...

[Hurricaneman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm1.GIF

The steering currents depicted here would indicate a possible W to WSW motion, this may be below 15N when it enter the Carribean which could mean a much meaner system, and less likely to hit Hispaniola, but Cuba and the eastern gulf could still be in the crosshairs and really need to keep an eye on it

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Caribwxgirl]

I want to sleep so bad but am afraid I'll wake up back to TC possibly sizing me up in its crossairs

[ROCK]

I want to sleep so bad but am afraid I'll wake up back to TC possibly sizing me up in its crossairs

its days away....plenty of time to sleep...trust me it will be here tomorrow.

[Caribwxgirl]

I want to sleep so bad but am afraid I'll wake up back to TC possibly sizing me up in its crossairs

its days away....plenty of time to sleep...trust me it will be here tomorrow.

I know lol. It's just the thought I may be in its path when it's initialized and start that torturous wait that's killing me

[SouthDadeFish]

This 00Z AMSU pass shows the low level structure continues to be rather well organized, but there is very little convection:

[SFLcane]

I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday.

Wxman57 let me ask you do you really this thing will ever get itself together? At this fast trek it should have a very difficult time keeping thunderstorms over the llc. Plenty of obsticles to cross before its even a threat to the conus if you ask me.

Just ask ernesto

[Bocadude85]

I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday.

Wxman57 let me ask you do you really this thing will ever get itself together? At this fast trek it should have a very difficult time keeping thunderstorms over the llc. Plenty of obsticles to cross before its even a threat to the conus if you ask me.

Just ask ernesto

Ernesto did have some difficulties.. but look what happened once he slowed down..

[Bocadude85]

Convection starting to blossom to the north of and south of the center now.. also convection still firing close to the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/flash-rb-short.html

[wxman57]

Convection is increasing. It's just a matter of time before NHC calls it a TD now. I still think it will struggle at least for the next 3-4 days. Then... depends on how much land it passes over.

[SouthDadeFish]

94L at 17:15Z earlier today:



And now at 02:15Z:



I don't see much progress, besides slightly better banding.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[Bocadude85]

Convection is increasing. It's just a matter of time before NHC calls it a TD now. I still think it will struggle at least for the next 3-4 days. Then... depends on how much land it passes over.

What are your thoughts on future track? Do you think there is a threat to the CONUS?

[ozonepete]

94L at 17:15Z earlier today:

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/7532 ... 012082.gif
And now at 02:15Z:

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7890/205km.jpg


I don't see much progress, besides slightly better banding.

And symmetry. It's getting more circular which will allow the surface air to get drawn into the center more easily.

[Javlin]

94L at 17:15Z earlier today:

[I don't see much progress, besides slightly better banding.

If that have a hard time seeing the call if for anything else some CYA as it approaches the Islands.The same has occurred many times in the GOM on systems that were lopsided and looked totally pathetic a heads up deal methinks.