ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Bocadude85]

168HR heading for Naples/Ft Myers

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical168.gif

[Stormlover2012]

I am not talking about analog years, what I am saying is all the models had these storms going other places and there was no way ike was going to hit texas or la and etc all models had it east coast system 10 days out, I mean you can't say its not going to hit new orleans lol nobody knows where its going to go

[ROCK]

yep in the keys this time...up the west coast....getting its act together also....ala Charly like....

[SeminoleWind]

i will say this much GFS has been pretty consistent now for the last 3-4 runs on bringing this into the west coast of Florida somewhere.

[ROCK]

i will say this much GFS has been pretty consistent now for the last 3-4 runs on bringing this into the west coast of Florida somewhere.

EURO ran something similar....

[Riptide]

I am not talking about analog years, what I am saying is all the models had these storms going other places and there was no way ike was going to hit texas or la and etc all models had it east coast system 10 days out, I mean you can't say its not going to hit new orleans lol nobody knows where its going to go

There are only so many places it can go, we know that for certain. You have a broad-general area from Florida Panhandle to possibly Canada, a track between the two is more likely; seems like significant south Florida impacts.

[SouthFLTropics]

EURO and GFS are almost identical in regards to track...Pretty good consensus from the big boys!!!

SFT

[ROCK]

moving up the West coast of FL...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SeminoleWind]

With so much consistency gaining here, lets just hope intensity would stay low after it moves past Jamaica and Cuba..

[Stormlover2012]

yes they have been consistent but you can't trust models 8 days out, average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles, that is from Jeff masters....you can't trust models this far out.

[Bocadude85]

Landfall around Tampa

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical192.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical204.gif

[ROCK]

yes they have been consistent but you can't trust models 8 days out, average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles, that is from Jeff masters....you can't trust models this far out.

yeha even at 8 days that is about the limit of the GFS....been good this year in the medium range.....186hr is long range in my book...

[Stormlover2012]

I can trust models in the 3 day range but 8 days out lol give me a break, I had to go through ike and rita and right now models mean nothing untill something develops

[Bocadude85]

yes they have been consistent but you can't trust models 8 days out, average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles, that is from Jeff masters....you can't trust models this far out.

According to the GFS this sytem is hitting the Fla keys 6 1/2 days from now... not all that long range

[cpdaman]

i guess the gfs/euro are similiar but the euro is slllooooweerr by a couple days.

at least on getting to the keys

[psyclone]

well we have to hope such a scenario doesn't happen and the good news is it usually doesn't. the eastern gulf is in the upper 80's to near 90. i was swimming yesterday and it was a warm, sudsy bath so any system with decent conditions aloft could go nuts.

[Bocadude85]

Im thinking hurricane Cleo may be a good analog for this system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png

[pgoss11]

Im thinking hurricane Cleo may be a good analog for this system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png

so you're thinking up the east coast of Florida?

[ROCK]

some good run to run stuff from the GFS and EURO today.....dont really see anything right now that might suggest a different scenario.....might be a few different runs still coming...looking for that wierd run to come up...might not be one....

[pgoss11]

some good run to run stuff from the GFS and EURO today.....dont really see anything right now that might suggest a different scenario.....might be a few different runs still coming...looking for that wierd run to come up...might not be one....

Pretty close continuity in the runs. Intensity might be the only big surprise...