ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

that lone Tstorm over the center will not sustain if it doesn get into a better surrounding. Stable air being sucked into it from the west....JMO

[Shuriken]

that lone Tstorm over the center will not sustain if it doesn get into a better surrounding. Stable air being sucked into it from the west....JMO

Then why did it pop in the first place?

I say: this is all about lapse rates to 200mb. As in: it is the determinant factor necessary for intensification of any tropical system up through Hurr to Major.

A storm gets it -- and therefore a chance -- or it doesn't.

King Cap Rules.

[ROCK]

nice eddy spun up to the east away from the COC.....interesting but goes to show that still an over all broad circulation and that the LLC is moving so fast its outracing its own convection...

[SeminoleWind]

Excellent image cycloneye that really puts things into perspective right there, huge area or circulation, certainly devoid of any real convection.

[cycloneye]

This is this afternoon's NHC preliminary thinking at 72 hours. By the way,look at the other one.

[Shuriken]

There is zero relative shear involving the new CB over the LLC; the fast movement of LLC is perfectly matching shear vector.

Ergo, intensification should be on the cards this evening and overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... JavaScript

[otowntiger]

There is zero relative shear involving the new CB over the LLC; the fast movement of LLC is perfectly matching shear vector.

Ergo, intensification should be on the cards this evening and overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Ok, what exactly is "CB"?

[ROCK]

There is zero relative shear involving the new CB over the LLC; the fast movement of LLC is perfectly matching shear vector.

Ergo, intensification should be on the cards this evening and overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... JavaScript

so the LLC moving at 25 mph doesnt hinder development? that is curious.,,,

[weatherwindow]

There is zero relative shear involving the new CB over the LLC; the fast movement of LLC is perfectly matching shear vector.

Ergo, intensification should be on the cards this evening and overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Ok, what exactly is "CB"?

cumulonimbus..thunderstorm

[wjs3]

There is zero relative shear involving the new CB over the LLC; the fast movement of LLC is perfectly matching shear vector.

Ergo, intensification should be on the cards this evening and overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Ok, what exactly is "CB"?

Abbreviation for Cumulonimbus.

[Aric Dunn]

Finally a small but sustained burst. the one this morning only last an hour at most this little area continues to maintain. and I can see convective bands to the east being pulled in and increased convection on the west side. could be slowly working out the dry air.

[Stormlover2012]

guys this is going to be a slow slow process

[islandgirl45]

that lone Tstorm over the center will not sustain if it doesn get into a better surrounding. Stable air being sucked into it from the west....JMO

Then why did it pop in the first place?

I say: this is all about lapse rates to 200mb. As in: it is the determinant factor necessary for intensification of any tropical system up through Hurr to Major.

A storm gets it -- and therefore a chance -- or it doesn't.

King Cap Rules.

For the benefit of some of us "non-mets," what is "King Cap?"

[SeminoleWind]

Wondering if we will see a blow up of activity tonight, at least enough to make the jump to TD status.
seems to be trying to fire some activity near the center and pulling in some "bands" as others have suggested.
probably the last visible for the day. here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[cycloneye]

A small hot tower shows up. Will it sustain?

[cpdaman]

looks like we lost a tad bit of latitude this afternoon

[Rafafao]

Hi!

No 5pm update?

[sunnyday]

When I come by to check on this invest, I see such a wide range of possibilities of where it might go. Yet, there is still no "IT". I would like to say that it doesn't seem like it is even going to form. Local So Fla met just said looks like it will go toward the islands (which?) and maybe to So Fl. There is too much uncertainty for me. My vote is that it will fizzle soon.

This is only my opinion. Please see the National Hurricane Center for correct info....

[Blown Away]

looks like we lost a tad bit of latitude this afternoon

Not much if any latitude lost, the convection is to the south of the LLC.

[Shuriken]

that lone Tstorm over the center will not sustain if it doesn get into a better surrounding. Stable air being sucked into it from the west....JMO

Then why did it pop in the first place?

I say: this is all about lapse rates to 200mb. As in: it is the determinant factor necessary for intensification of any tropical system up through Hurr to Major.

A storm gets it -- and therefore a chance -- or it doesn't.

King Cap Rules.

For the benefit of some of us "non-mets," what is "King Cap?"

"King Cap" is what I label (it's not a met term) the upper-atmospheric condition governing whether or not a rising cumulonimbus in the tropics can make it all the way to the 200mb level (or roughly 70,000ft) in the hurricane belt. A storm able to do so has a "full pipe" to the very top of the troposphere, and can exhaust (i.e, "generate blow-off") extremely effectively -- nearly all of the rising column of air exhausts out the top of the convective stack rather than cyclically collapsing as is the case with normal pulsing cellular convection. This creates a suction draw at the surface, lowering pressures and tightening up low level circulations.

King Cap is either "ON" or "OFF" -- there's usually no middle ground. When it's "ON" (which is 99% of the time in the hurricane belt, as blow-off from the ITCZ and South American jungle convection create a semi-permanent Hadley Cell subsidence regime over the subtropics further north), you do not get hurricanes. When it's "OFF", even the junkiest systems can blow up despite otherwise lousy conditions such as dry air, shear and cool water temps.

In the context of a typical near-TD approaching the Caribbean, it's the difference between endless hours and days of sputtering along, and a sudden eruption heralding a steady intensification trend. On color infrared satellite, it'll be the appearance of a big red "meatball" of -75C tops.