ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Stormlover2012]

U won't see that until it develops

[SeminoleWind]

@ 240 hrs it looks to move west again? up Florida west cast.

[ROCK]

Hopefully we're seeing some consistency with the models now.

ha.....240.....gets into the SE GOM...and strengthens.....last run it was up and out to sea....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

[SeminoleWind]

Full 12Z euro loop
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

Hopefully we're seeing some consistency with the models now.

ha.....240.....gets into the SE GOM...and strengthens.....last run it was up and out to sea....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

A bit different towards the end than the last run and also a bit stronger also, almost the same as the 12z GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

See...as soon as someone mentions consistency you can bet that it will get thrown out the window...High pressure builds overtop and shoves it back West across the state and it starts to blow up off Tampa Bay!!!

SFT

[JPmia]

Rock I believe this run will get you excited:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[ROCK]

Nah, I dont get excited over a weak naked swirl anymore.....

but putting this is in perspective even the EURO is la la land after 168hr.....

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z GFDL strengthens it SE of florida moving NW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF kills it over the islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFDL strengthens it SE of florida moving NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF kills it over the islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Don't you mean moving NW...Not NE???

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z GFDL strengthens it SE of florida moving NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF kills it over the islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Don't you mean moving NW...Not NE???

Yea my bad, didn't notice that error.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30kts and pressure down to 1009 mbs.

18z Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1831 UTC MON AUG 20 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120820 1800 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120820  1800   120821  0600   120821  1800   120822  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  46.7W   16.3N  50.0W   16.9N  53.7W   17.4N  57.4W
BAMD    15.6N  46.7W   15.9N  49.8W   16.0N  52.9W   16.1N  56.0W
BAMM    15.6N  46.7W   16.1N  49.9W   16.5N  53.2W   16.7N  56.6W
LBAR    15.6N  46.7W   15.9N  50.0W   16.4N  53.6W   16.7N  57.2W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          59KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          59KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120822  1800   120823  1800   120824  1800   120825  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  61.4W   19.5N  69.3W   20.2N  76.3W   19.7N  81.0W
BAMD    16.2N  59.0W   17.3N  63.9W   19.0N  67.1W   20.9N  68.8W
BAMM    17.2N  60.0W   18.9N  66.7W   21.4N  72.4W   23.3N  77.1W
LBAR    17.1N  60.9W   17.6N  67.5W   19.8N  72.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        72KTS          91KTS          96KTS          95KTS
DSHP        72KTS          91KTS          96KTS          64KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.6N LONCUR =  46.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  15.3N LONM12 =  42.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  14.7N LONM24 =  38.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[otowntiger]

12z GFDL strengthens it SE of florida moving NW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF kills it over the islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Certainly not much to look at (much less worry about) in either of those two scenarios!

ho hum.

[otowntiger]

http://hurricanetrack.com/2012/08/20/tropics-look-busy-but-its-all-bark-so-far/\\

this is from sudduth from hurricanetrack.com and I agree with him also

I agree there is certainly nothing going on now to get excited about or even overly curious, but this one statement about 94L at the end of the discussion on it seemed contradictory, or at least very poorly worded: " In other words, it has a lot of work to do before becoming much of an issue for anyone. This is good news and for now, it should stay that way." I find that kinda amusing.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS.....finally catching on "maybe".....hits PR and goes up and out to sea.....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS running...So far no big changes it seems. Westward ho!

[SeminoleWind]

18z GFS running...So far no big changes it seems. Westward ho!

Seems stronger on this run into the Islands IMO.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS out to 60 hours...Passing below PR

SFT

[SeminoleWind]

12 Z GFS @ 72 Hrs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


78hr below DR

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M