ATL: INVEST 95L
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- brunota2003
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
Have fun figuring out which one it is! It is getting busy in the ATL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE EASTERN
AZORES ISLANDS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND AND ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE EASTERN
AZORES ISLANDS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND AND ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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- northjaxpro
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Impressive convective burst occuring early this morning right over the LLC which is basically stationary just off the Mexican coast. or right along the coastline. If this trend continues with the convection and 95L can manage to stay off the coast, we may see this become a TD or possibly a TS by late this afternoon or this evening. This is definitely going to have to be monitored closely as 95L I believe will meander around for a couple days or drift slowly north.
Also, look at the progress of the frontal system making it all the way down into GOM. Amazing seeing this type of front in late August. ____________________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Also, look at the progress of the frontal system making it all the way down into GOM. Amazing seeing this type of front in late August. ____________________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
Up to 30%
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
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I would bet we have a closed Low and a TD at least down there by the time Recon gets there. Some very cold cloud tops on IR Satellite and rotation now on radar.......
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
12z Best Track
AL, 95, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 232N, 972W, 20, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
AL, 95, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 232N, 972W, 20, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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The trough and dry air has dug all the way into south TX.... I don't see it sitting there if it develops quickly today. All the steering in the mid levels looks east.......
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
95L is looking better by the hour. Air Force Recon Hurricane Hunter aircraft I believe has been scheduled to fly down there to check the system out later this afternoon.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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there does appear to be an elongated circ developing. does need to be watched today.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
northjaxpro wrote:95L is looking better by the hour. Air Force Recon Hurricane Hunter aircraft I believe has been scheduled to fly down there to check the system out later this afternoon.
Not what I'm seeing. Looks like it's merging with the pre-frontal trof as wind shear increases overhead. Convection elongating to the NE. No LLC. Recon will probably not fly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
Well the NHC doesn't seem to feel that it has no development chance if they upped to 30%. IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
Agreed...this looks terrible. This is totally frontal in nature, and I don't see this becoming a tropical system (my opinion only).
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There is a spin out there. IMO
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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there is definitely a circ down there. its small a little elongated but appears to be becoming more defined. the trof its attached too is weak and narrow and if a solid circ does take shape it would not take much to break from the trof. it has a 40 to 50 % chance right now.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L
Recon will fly this afternoon so we will have a much better idea about what is there.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113403&p=2253022#p2253022
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113403&p=2253022#p2253022
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Re:
Agree.
Aric Dunn wrote:there is definitely a circ down there. its small a little elongated but appears to be becoming more defined. the trof its attached too is weak and narrow and if a solid circ does take shape it would not take much to break from the trof. it has a 40 to 50 % chance right now.
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