ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#421 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:05 pm

This run would shread it with interaction with Hispaniola, the only problem I have with the 0zGFS is that it isn't picking up on the current WSW motion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#422 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:08 pm

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#423 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:09 pm

Still not doing much at all in the way of strengthening but if it finds its way into the Gulf then all bets are off. I am so tired but have to stay up and see where this run ends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#424 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:12 pm

thanks for posting Blown....I needed a break......I dont think it would gain that much lat between now and then given its caught up in the low levels right now and screaming along at 20 MPH+.....JMO...
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Weatherfreak000

#425 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:14 pm

I agree....seems really unusual to see those wobbles north when the system is basically moving due west if not wobbling slightly WSW....but hey if King GFS declares it I shalt follow :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#426 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:14 pm

Near Cuba now ... moving WNW towards EGOM or SFL ... a little stronger
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#427 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:16 pm

Crossing central Cuba .. NW turn may be happening
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#428 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:18 pm

I don't know how it could survive all that land but it has happened before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#429 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:19 pm

North central Cuba coast now ... Heading for Keys or EGOM ... still pretty weak
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal150.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#430 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:21 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


not much to look at on this run...I think the islands did a number on it....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#431 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:22 pm

Moving NW towards Key West ... looks like FL west coast
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#432 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:23 pm

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#433 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:24 pm

I see two potential problems with this run, GFS might be a tad wacky lifting it North, which is probably why it's staying a bit weaker because of dry air. Second, I think 94L will probably shoot through the Caribbean a tad faster. That weakness is really pronounced though...time will tell. Might be a SFL threat...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#434 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:26 pm

Probably a 50mph TS at landfall in this run.
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Re:

#435 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:27 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I see two potential problems with this run, GFS might be a tad wacky lifting it North, which is probably why it's staying a bit weaker because of dry air. Second, I think 94L will probably shoot through the Caribbean a tad faster. That weakness is really pronounced though...time will tell. Might be a SFL threat...



yeah not sure what to make of it...hard to predict low level steering 6 days from now...a whole lot weaker this run...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#436 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:28 pm

Near Marco Island (SW Florida) ... getting stronger
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal174.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#437 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:29 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#438 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:30 pm

Blown Away wrote:Near Marco Island (SW Florida) ... getting stronger
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal174.gif


This far out it could be 20mb or more lower than depicted in the model run, this really needs to be watched



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#439 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:31 pm

Is the ridge building back at the end of the run thus far? It seems not so prominent before it crossed Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#440 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:34 pm

looks like the 18Z run.... makes the GOM along the w coast of FL.....
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