ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS looks pretty solid, initialization and track look solid. But after 5+ days out it's tough to say any solution looks good. I'd say the range of spectrums include smashing into Central America to shooting out of sea. If anything, I would say the interesting part today is how the reliable models are locking in on a track through the Caribbean.

I saw Brent lurking around too I have no doubt he is interested. Throw a dart on the map, it's about that time again.

[SeminoleWind]

Last system of the "plenty" to go through Eastern Cuba and come back with a vengenance?[/quote]

The last one in my memory, and i am sure other will give more examples is Fay, caused alot of problems for Florida from flooding, although she remained a Tropical Storm
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20086.asp

[Nimbus]

Out 200 hours the models are only showing trends. They must have factored in the recent slowdown in forward speed and adjusted the resulting position to fit the arrival of the next shortwave?

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS operational has come into a little better agreement with the 12Z GFS ensemble tracks but is still left of most of the ensemble members:

[Hurricane Andrew]

Are the 18z ensembles out yet?

[Macrocane]

I see the models going more and more west with their solutions, if they keep doing that this system will end up with a Dean-like track, the intensity will be different though as conditions in the Caribbean won't be that good for a cat 5, just my unofficial opinion.

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

-NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN AS SUCH, JUST AN OPINION FROM AN AMATEUR WEATHER ENTHUSIAST-

Is it safe to go ahead and point out that I think the (3) main players in how strong and where this system is going to go all depends on the SAL, length of time with island(s) interaction, and how low the early trough drops down through the U.S? Sorry, left out the western edge of the ridge it will follow as well.

[tolakram]

Howdy,

please keep in mind this is the model thread, not the discussion thread. Discussion here should be limited to model runs.
Discussion thread here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113366&hilit=&p=2252591#p2252591

Also, when posting predictions, you must use the Storm 2k disclaimer.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JPmia]

Last system of the "plenty" to go through Eastern Cuba and come back with a vengenance?[/quote]

Well I wasn't being specific.. just generally referring to hurricanes that have gone over Cuba in general.. the one's I'm thinking of have gone over the western side of the island.. flatter there.. more mountainous on the eastern side.

[Dean4Storms]

I'd pretty much say that the consensus for the most part is toward Jamaica, after that is still only a guess for now.

1800 UTC.........

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al942012.png

[fci]

Last system of the "plenty" to go through Eastern Cuba and come back with a vengenance?

The last one in my memory, and i am sure other will give more examples is Fay, caused alot of problems for Florida from flooding, although she remained a Tropical Storm
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20086.asp[/quote]

Fay was memorable but went through West/Central Cuba near Havana ( might even be considered Western Cuba actually).
I was more commenting on the post that referred to a storm crossing Eastern Cuba and coming back with a vengeance. I don't think that happens or if it has, it is extremely rare since the terrain is extremely mountainous and wrecks havoc with circulations
Storms pretty routinely cross Western Cuba and regenerate, sometimes with a vengeance!
I understand that the poster was referring to Cuba in general and I was getting specific. Not bring critical and probably should restrict comments to the Discussion thread (sorry Mods)

[Caribwxgirl]

I'd pretty much say that the consensus for the most part is toward Jamaica, after that is still only a guess for now.

1800 UTC.........

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al942012.png

Guess we here need to start getting prepared too just in case.

[ROCK]

I'd pretty much say that the consensus for the most part is toward Jamaica, after that is still only a guess for now.

1800 UTC.........

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al942012.png

Guess we here need to start getting prepared too just in case.

Yes!! if you are not already I would be making some runs to the store before everyone else. Even if you dont take a direct hit this cirulation is soo big Jamiaca good have significant effects...... Also GFS is pretty good in the medium range and should not be discounted as much as I hug the EURO.....

I usually start preparing during May then eat and drink all my prepps after the season...

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


NOGAPS still cant figure out what to do with the low in front of 94L.....so it tracks it like the GFS does but really weak then send 94L out to sea.....still hasnt caught on!

[cycloneye]

The 00z Models.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0121 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120820 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120820  0000   120820  1200   120821  0000   120821  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N  40.6W   16.0N  43.9W   16.9N  47.7W   17.4N  52.0W
BAMD    15.1N  40.6W   15.8N  43.3W   16.5N  46.1W   17.1N  48.9W
BAMM    15.1N  40.6W   15.8N  43.8W   16.6N  47.3W   17.1N  50.9W
LBAR    15.1N  40.6W   15.8N  44.0W   16.5N  47.4W   17.2N  50.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          40KTS          53KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          40KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120822  0000   120823  0000   120824  0000   120825  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.8N  56.5W   18.0N  65.4W   17.2N  73.5W   16.0N  77.6W
BAMD    17.4N  51.5W   17.6N  56.5W   17.8N  59.7W   17.8N  60.6W
BAMM    17.4N  54.7W   17.8N  62.5W   18.4N  70.0W   19.0N  75.3W
LBAR    17.8N  54.4W   18.1N  61.8W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        66KTS          91KTS         100KTS         102KTS
DSHP        66KTS          91KTS         100KTS         102KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.1N LONCUR =  40.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  14.5N LONM12 =  36.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  14.2N LONM24 =  32.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[gatorcane]

Are the 18z ensembles out yet?

[SouthFLTropics]

Ships is still going bonkers...up to 100 knots

[wxman57]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012081918&set=Tropical


NOGAPS still cant figure out what to do with the low in front of 94L.....so it tracks it like the GFS does but really weak then send 94L out to sea.....still hasnt caught on!

I use the NOGAPS exclusively for my forecasts. What I do is take the NOGAPS track, add 180 deg and that's my track. Works great!

[Blown Away]

BAMD keeps inching N and slowing down. Gonna be close for NE Caribbean if this storm deepens and farther south if 94L stays week and shallow. JMHO

[gatorcane]

SFWMD finally is updated for 94L. The TVCN (grey line NHC likes to generally go with for their projected track)...is bending to the NW at the end: