ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Well we know it is likely to be somewhere around eastern Cuba, from there a pretty sizable spread from the East Coast to the Gulf.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Well we know it is likely to be somewhere around eastern Cuba, from there a pretty sizable spread from the East Coast to the Gulf.

I'd say we know this if by "around" you mean within 500 miles or so.

[wjs3]

Well, I'd say that at least the operational model and ensembles agree until that point. Who knows if they're right.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html


full EURO run from today.....still sticking to its guns and I see now the GFS might be coming around.....GFS has been good this year but the EURO sniffed this out first...IMO....if it does verify....

[perk]

EURO at 216 hr brings this into the GOM thru the channel...

Yeah Rock i just saw that, GFS and Euro sends 94L into the GOM.
Now if they're both doing this next weekend i'll be worried.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html


full EURO run from today.....still sticking to its guns and I see now the GFS might be coming around.....GFS has been good this year but the EURO sniffed this out first...IMO....if it does verify....

The Euro keeps it weak through the Caribbean, not at all a certainty.

[Dean4Storms]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html


full EURO run from today.....still sticking to its guns and I see now the GFS might be coming around.....GFS has been good this year but the EURO sniffed this out first...IMO....if it does verify....

It's also showing at the end of its run an impressive trough draped across the northern Gulf Coast whereas the 12z GFS has a much less amplified trough as it reached the Yucatan Straits. I think the ECMWF with that solution would end up with a turn toward the northern Gulf Coast and not headed toward TX at least not south of Galveston.

[Stormlover2012]

Yeah euro does show that but also the euro shows is weakening quick also

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

-NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ONE, JUST AN AMATEUR OPINION-

We all know the models are not good at forecasting intensity, with that being said, I think a central texas coast landfall is to far west. The current progression westward will continue as long as there is SAL out in front of the system. I keep hearing this system is fixing to get its act together and take off. Not so, until it rids itself of all the SAL in front of it that it will gulp up and disperses what it does not the system is going nowhere fast. The GFS is dead on through about the central caribbean due to cycling out all the dry air gulps. However, once the system gets south of eastern cuba the GFS starts to track to far south bc of the lack of the correct intensity. I think the system once surpassing cuba/jamaica to these islands northwest will RI in strength and have a landfall somewhere around western LA to central LA as a strong Cat. 3 storm. Not good by any means, but to me that is the way it is shaping up to be. Unfortunately, this drought for the U.S. can only last so long.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html


full EURO run from today.....still sticking to its guns and I see now the GFS might be coming around.....GFS has been good this year but the EURO sniffed this out first...IMO....if it does verify....

It's also showing at the end of its run an impressive trough draped across the northern Gulf Coast whereas the 12z GFS has a much less amplified trough as it reached the Yucatan Straits. I think the ECMWF with that solution would end up with a turn toward the northern Gulf Coast and not headed toward TX at least not south of Galveston.

Oh I see the trof for the end of August making it all the way to NGOM... Somehow that looks like a fall trof in late Sept maybe but not at the end of August. I find it suspect. But that is not my point, I am not worried about landfall over my house at 300hrs....

What I was saying is even the GFS has moved towards a more weaker system, now does it stay this way I dont know but it cannot be denied guidanced has moved in this direction.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just like they have done with almost all other systems so far, weak and west. And Rock would not be so quick to dismiss the front making it down to the coast idea. We have one draped over us right now,albeit weak, making its way offshore tomorrow.

[ROCK]

18Z NAM is in....84hrs under PR and DR in the carib....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... page=Param

[ROCK]

Just like they have done with almost all other systems so far, weak and west. And Rock would not be so quick to dismiss the front making it down to the coast idea. We have one draped over us right now,albeit weak, making its way offshore tomorrow.

I was speaking climo....that front is draped across Central Texas right now and washing out....I remember the 2004 front in August when Charley came a calling so not impossible but they are rare.

18Z GFS is rolling in....shortly

[Blown Away]

If GFS can miss dancing with Hispaniola/Cuba I think we will see future Isaac strengthen.

[ROCK]

and wa la.....18Z GFS initialized well enough....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


24hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cheezyWXguy]

Just like they have done with almost all other systems so far, weak and west. And Rock would not be so quick to dismiss the front making it down to the coast idea. We have one draped over us right now,albeit weak, making its way offshore tomorrow.

I was speaking climo....that front is draped across Central Texas right now and washing out....I remember the 2004 front in August when Charley came a calling so not impossible but they are rare.

18Z GFS is rolling in....shortly

I would normally blow off such a front, especially with it being so far out but after what with the last front, but i just can't. After an abnormally hot 3-4 weeks here in north tx, our highs for the next few days are only topping out in the mid to upper 80s and that is far from normal. A front like the one that just came through seems about 3 to 4 weeks early, and I'm at least hoping that there's more coming. Perhaps I'm just being selfishly optomistic, as this scenario would bring me nice, cooler weather at the expense of whoever may be in this storm's potential path, but needless to say, if that trough does keep showing up on future runs, I would keep a close eye on it.

[ROCK]

36hr....different site...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP036.gif


48hr..1007MB low...strengthening some

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

[floridasun78]

the way i see it i want see models show by wed i seen were models change from fl to gulf back florida back to been fish it will chance alot by time get to islands yes depend if weak system or strong

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP066.gif


punching thru the islands at 66.....mostly likely a TS at this point....

[Hurricaneman]

looks like by 84 hrs on the 18zGFS that this becomes a really potent tropical storm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.