ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

I just read Dr. Masters' forecast and he does not forecast shear being a problem as Gatorcane does.

He mentioned shear being a problem in a few days and SAL being a problem now. I think he's right on both counts. Keep in mind though, the atlantic basin is kind of a marginal basin for tropical activity. climo bears that out in the form of a short, but intense burst of activity in a small window. we're entering that window now so any disturbance needs to be closely monitored. remember how lousy ernesto looked during most of its life and then...a switch turned on. that can happen here and this is the time of year it's most likely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dr. Masters said that shear is expected to be light and did not indicate that it would be a problem. Go to Weather Underground and carefully read his blog.

Sorry...I just realized my post was confusing. When i said "he" i was referring to gatorcane, not jeff masters.

[Aric Dunn]

It should be upgraded. but probably wont.

[KWT]

I wonder how much of a difference a stronger Gordon has caused to the track over the past 24hrs. I personally don't find it surprising that the track jerked northward as Gordon underwent fairly fast strengthening.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

After struggling for a while last night, 94L has acquired enough organization to be declared a tropical depression. That should happen later tonight or tomorrow morning.

19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

I'm holding firm with an East Coast hurricane hit. The global models are having poor initialization problems due to 94L's large low pressure gyre.

[SouthFLTropics]

It looks pretty good to me...I could definitely see the NHC pulling the trigger at 5:00PM or 11:00PM tonight.

SFT

[Nimbus]

That Upper level low that Gatorcane has been watching hasn't shown up in the models yet but is very evident in the WV imagery. Fairly typical to have an ULL develop bordering a systems anticyclone. Initially could provide an outflow channel then shear/steer later on as the system moves into the flow. Could be a missing piece of the puzzle if it persists.

The models must think this ULL will fill in as the anticyclone over 94L continues west pumping the ridge. The Trade winds flow has become more zonal recently which usually promotes a more solid ridge as depicted by the models.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 146N, 384W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[MGC]

94L looks pretty close to being a depression IMO....I guess the NHC is waiting on a ship report to ensure there is a west wind....a circulation center could close off any time now....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[cycloneye]

94L looks pretty close to being a depression IMO....I guess the NHC is waiting on a ship report to ensure there is a west wind....a circulation center could close off any time now....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

Or bouys. Two bouys are ahead one at 14.6N-46W and the other at 14.6N-51W.

[Hammy]

It looks quite elongated to the east to me, I'm thinking probably tomorrow morning for depression, and -if- it becomes a storm anytime soon probably Tuesday or Wed.

-personal opinion and not official forecast-

[Blown Away]

Most of the globals drive 94L near Hispaniola and some kick it NW and others WNW. I think 94L is far enough north that it will find it's way through the NE Caribbean and above Hispaniola and become a close call or impact the SE CONUS.

[tolakram]

Latest saved visible loop

[rockyman]

The cyclonic envelope on this system is HUGE. I think it'll be slow developing, but once it does, it could be a major player.

Of course, what do I know! Lol

[FutureEM]

The consolidation here is pretty evident, 94L is getting itself together.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 36.5W TO 15.1N 44.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 36.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS TRACKING
WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OF 05 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 80F TO 84F PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR REISSUED AS

[Aric Dunn]

im actually quite perplexed. td 7 when it was east of the islands looked way worse and gordon when it was td also was not as organized. who knows anymore.

[Blown Away]

All classified systems passing near 94L's position.

[Vortex]

Organization trends continue this afternoon...I'd expect an upgrade as early as tonight and likely Issac tomorrow IMO. NE carribean, Greater antilles need to pay close tabs on "future" Issac...

[pgoss11]

All classified systems passing near 94L's position.

Statiscally speaking...from the look of those tracks...very unlikely to enter the GOM.
Not an official forecast.

[ROCK]

All classified systems passing near 94L's position.

well that settles it....its coming to Galveston....thanks for the pic....

but seriously 94L is gulping some SAL from the North...lack of convection gives it away....models have trended weaker and further west with each run...given the looks of it right now hard not to agree with them....


BTW that one track to Galveston was the storm of 1900....coincidence? or something more creepy??