Nimbus wrote:Moving west near 20 knots and both Ernesto and 7 actually sped up a little till they got past Jamaica. There is a higher probability that the fast forward speed would hinder development in the near term thus the model shifts towards weak and west solutions.
GFS and HWRF are tracking over Guadalupe again into the Caribbean. If there was a rapid intensification earlier into a deeper system the BAMD model pushes south which probably indicates they are expecting strong ridging over the southeast ConUS at that time with the systems current forward speed.
That argues against an early recurve or an immediate track up the East coast. The system could stall late in the forecast and get pulled north by a weakness somewhere though.
Still a fair probability of a landfall anywhere from Mexico to the Florida panhandle (just an opinion).
Could also end up crossing south florida from the south if it's strong enough to feel a weakness that may occur.
? Thanks to you for the explanation, i'm a bit curious about this sentence.
