tolakram wrote:Latest IR loop.
Starting to move pretty fast ... I can't help but wonder if the models forecasting a weak system are onto something.
Where have i heard that before?

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tolakram wrote:Latest IR loop.
Starting to move pretty fast ... I can't help but wonder if the models forecasting a weak system are onto something.
ozonepete wrote:Here's one reason the COC is spinning up so quickly. The MLAEJ (Mid-Level African Easterly Jet) is quite strong and well established right now. The first image shows it's steady westward flow at 600mb (in METERS/SEC). This is very good for carrying and sustaining easterly waves over Africa and then westward into the Atlantic off of Africa. But much more important is how differently it is behaving compared to normal, i.e. the anomalies with it. Note the second image, which is the analysis at 600mb of its variation from normal over the last week, i.e. the anomalies in its strength and direction. Note how it is a little faster than normal right where 94L is and most importantly, note that the wind direction points to the east at 10 degrees, which means that there is a weakness in the westerly component at lower latitudes. What does this all mean? That between about 10 and 15 degrees there is horizontal shear which encourages a twist in the atmosphere. This is allowing a rapid spin-up at mid levels. Combined with such warm SSTs and low vertical wind shear, this one could spin up very quickly.
*Images Cut*
cycloneye wrote:Well Aric,here is a pass made around 7:40 PM EDT,but it missed almost the entire circulation.![]()
SFLcane wrote:tolakram wrote:Latest IR loop.
Starting to move pretty fast ... I can't help but wonder if the models forecasting a weak system are onto something.
http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/9053 ... imated.gif
Where have i heard that before?Indeed though the trend towards a weaker storm continues.
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The global models show intensification of the storm, that's all that matters. Leave the rest to the hurricane models.
Cyclenall wrote:ozonepete wrote:Here's one reason the COC is spinning up so quickly. The MLAEJ (Mid-Level African Easterly Jet) is quite strong and well established right now. The first image shows it's steady westward flow at 600mb (in METERS/SEC). This is very good for carrying and sustaining easterly waves over Africa and then westward into the Atlantic off of Africa. But much more important is how differently it is behaving compared to normal, i.e. the anomalies with it. Note the second image, which is the analysis at 600mb of its variation from normal over the last week, i.e. the anomalies in its strength and direction. Note how it is a little faster than normal right where 94L is and most importantly, note that the wind direction points to the east at 10 degrees, which means that there is a weakness in the westerly component at lower latitudes. What does this all mean? That between about 10 and 15 degrees there is horizontal shear which encourages a twist in the atmosphere. This is allowing a rapid spin-up at mid levels. Combined with such warm SSTs and low vertical wind shear, this one could spin up very quickly.
*Images Cut*
I've never heard of this before, all that was brand new to me and sounded like it came from a met.
ozonepete wrote:Cyclenall wrote:ozonepete wrote:Here's one reason the COC is spinning up so quickly. The MLAEJ (Mid-Level African Easterly Jet) is quite strong and well established right now. The first image shows it's steady westward flow at 600mb (in METERS/SEC). This is very good for carrying and sustaining easterly waves over Africa and then westward into the Atlantic off of Africa. But much more important is how differently it is behaving compared to normal, i.e. the anomalies with it. Note the second image, which is the analysis at 600mb of its variation from normal over the last week, i.e. the anomalies in its strength and direction. Note how it is a little faster than normal right where 94L is and most importantly, note that the wind direction points to the east at 10 degrees, which means that there is a weakness in the westerly component at lower latitudes. What does this all mean? That between about 10 and 15 degrees there is horizontal shear which encourages a twist in the atmosphere. This is allowing a rapid spin-up at mid levels. Combined with such warm SSTs and low vertical wind shear, this one could spin up very quickly.
*Images Cut*
I've never heard of this before, all that was brand new to me and sounded like it came from a met.
I am a met. I just haven't asked for the designation here yet but will pretty soon.
JonathanBelles wrote:cycloneye wrote:Well Aric,here is a pass made around 7:40 PM EDT,but it missed almost the entire circulation.![]()
Based on that image, i'd raise the PoF (Probability of Formation) to 90%. You can see SWrly winds on the edge of that pass, which may be a little less accurate just due to the data being on the edge. This appears to be a depression now on satellite and microwave, but with no confirmation... the call from NHC is good.
rainstorm wrote:
you still think it will spin up quickly?
AJC3 wrote:JonathanBelles wrote:cycloneye wrote:Well Aric,here is a pass made around 7:40 PM EDT,but it missed almost the entire circulation.![]()
Based on that image, i'd raise the PoF (Probability of Formation) to 90%. You can see SWrly winds on the edge of that pass, which may be a little less accurate just due to the data being on the edge. This appears to be a depression now on satellite and microwave, but with no confirmation... the call from NHC is good.
The question, yet again, is given the fast forward speed, are there any ground-relative NW winds on the forward flank of the wave axis. If so, they're light and confined to a really small area. Without a good ASCAT pass (did I mention lately how much I miss QS? LOL), there's just no way to know for sure right now.
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