GFS keeps it weak 3 days from now, with that ridge to the north it will probably continue west through the eastern caribbean.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATL: ISAAC - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Hurricane Alexis
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 29
- Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
- Location: Miami,Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
floridasun78
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
Hurricane Alexis
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 29
- Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
- Location: Miami,Florida
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
What about the Euro?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Re:
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
What about the Euro?
No model is good at intensity.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
rainstorm
-
AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3999
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: Re:
tolakram wrote:Hurricane Alexis wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:remember the gfs is not an intensity guidance.
What about the Euro?
No model is good at intensity.
Just to clarify, they're talking about the model guidance with respect to the intensity of TC's.
Global model guidance is made (and quite useful) for diagnosing intensities of mid latitude features such as surface highs and XT lows,
0 likes
Re:
Off topic but Gordon is making a run at a Cat 3...he may be the 'one' because it's actually happening...not a future model run...sorry...back to 94L
rainstorm wrote:this might be the best chance of the season. hopefully it doesnt just poof out. models trends arent good.
0 likes
-
Riptide
- Category 2
- Posts: 753
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
- Location: Cape May, New Jersey
- Contact:
Re: Re:
rainstorm wrote:AJC3 wrote:rainstorm wrote:this might be the best chance of the season. hopefully it doesnt just poof out. models trends arent good.
Then again, it might just be one of several.
there are several nice waves following behind.
Indeed, it's always the "next" tropical wave. Still trust observational evidence over models, this one is clearly going to develop.
0 likes
Models going weird again
gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS 114 hours from now, 1006MB low:
That's quite a nice train starting there, under a ridge!
At this point I still waiting for the GFDL and HWRF models to run on this thing, they have been poor so far in terms of starting up on Invests this year. Other years those models would have started running on 94L days ago. The 12z Euro was another disappointment I see.
0 likes
-
Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
I've found from my time on this site that I have kind of learnt not to make any assumptions until we have at least a defined TD/cyclone. Honestly if I hadn't learnt that my imaginings alone would give me heart failure from some model runs 
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
Re: Models going weird again
Cyclenall wrote:gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS 114 hours from now, 1006MB low:
http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/4217 ... htpmsltrop.]
That's quite a nice train starting there, under a ridge!
At this point I still waiting for the GFDL and HWRF models to run on this thing, they have been poor so far in terms of starting up on Invests this year. Other years those models would have started running on 94L days ago. The 12z Euro was another disappointment I see.
Yep some train lol
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Weatherfreak000
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
It's too far North......looks like it's nearing 15N. I can truly see models perhaps lifting North now.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Finally the HWRF is run at the 18z. Keeps it weak and has a few other vorts behind it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012081818-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012081818-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
- Posts: 1781
- Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Speaking of models and how they don't do well with intensity (globals that is), just look at Gordon. Did any of the recent runs over the last few days suggest that Gordon would reach 110 mph? Yet, there it is and over almost no heat content too. Just goes to show what can happen when the atmosphere is conducive given just enough warm water. So who knows? Maybe the status quo of weak MDR systems will continue and the GFS/Euro solution in fact comes to pass. We'll know in a few days, that' the only certainty.
0 likes
-
Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Weatherfreak000 wrote:It's too far North......looks like it's nearing 15N. I can truly see models perhaps lifting North now.
Even if this does consolidate at 15n this should move due west if not a little south of due west
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests