ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Convection seems to be on the decrease the past several hours -- except for the area to the NE of the last best track coordinates where the convection has been more sustained. I wonder if we will see an LLC relocation there which would put the center at 15N lattitude?

Good observation gatorcane. Observing satellite imagery, I am curious if a LLC is relocating itself at that latitude. That convective area which you referenced gatorcane has sustained itself for much of the afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Convection seems to be on the decrease the past several hours -- except for the area to the NE of the last best track coordinates where the convection has been more sustained. I wonder if we will see an LLC relocation there which would put the center at 15N lattitude?

Good observation gatorcane. Observing satellite imagery, I am curious if a LLC is relocating itself at that latitude. That convective area which you referenced gatorcane has sustained itself for much of the afternoon.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO,it has reformed a bit more north by only looking at the feeder bands from the south that are going up passing 14N and if that is confirmed on the 00z Best Track,then the NE Caribbean may not see this but is still early.

[Caribwxgirl]

]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/imagery/rgb-animated

Should be classified in the morning if current convective trends continue.

All those feeder bands on the south side remind me of what Gilbert in 1988 looked like when it
entered the Carib. as a 1002 mb. depression.

Do not mention Gilbert!!! That was a terrible one for us

[CajunMama]

I think once this "assumed to be Isaac" gets to tropical storm status it will start to wrap into the center the SAL which is out in front of it and will keep it a minimal tropical storm until it rids itself of the air and disperses the SAL in front of it enough before it starts to ramp up to a cane. I'm pretty sure this along with the ridge to its north is the reason why the models and forecasters send the system westward for the next 3 or 4 days through the LA. If SAL was not in front of the system it would ramp up much sooner and track more northwest than west and would almost certainly curve out enough to miss the U.S. In my opinion the SAL is the only reason the U.S. will be in play. So, the SAL was a good thing for Ernesto, Gordon and Helen. However, not so much for "assumed to be Isaac".

"NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, JUST AN OPINION"

Just a reminder and for those who are unaware or don't know, per mfdolphin, we are not allowed to prename a storm until it is offically named by the NHC on their website. The ATCF file is not to be used as official as it may show up on there but then may be retracted. Thanks for understanding.

[northjaxpro]

Convection seems to be on the decrease the past several hours -- except for the area to the NE of the last best track coordinates where the convection has been more sustained. I wonder if we will see an LLC relocation there which would put the center at 15N lattitude?

Good observation gatorcane. Observing satellite imagery, I am curious if a LLC is relocating itself at that latitude. That convective area which you referenced gatorcane has sustained itself for much of the afternoon.

IMO,it has reformed a bit more north by only looking at the feeder bands from the south that are going up passing 14N and if that is confirmed on the 00z Best Track,then the NE Caribbean may not see this but is still early.

________________

Yep, cycloneye, I am inclined to agree with what you stated. It is still very early in the game here, but any latitude gained by the system will only help 94L to possibly by-pass everyone in the NE Caribbean down the road. Again, it is early of course. ________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

could the wave right behind 94L have any impact on track and/or intensification of 94L if that goes ahead and shows signs of development too? It's not far east of 94L at all.

[Caribwxgirl]

So what's everyone thinking for the next NHC update? Does it remain at 50%?

[Hurricaneman]

Convection seems to be on the decrease the past several hours -- except for the area to the NE of the last best track coordinates where the convection has been more sustained. I wonder if we will see an LLC relocation there which would put the center at 15N lattitude?

Good observation gatorcane. Observing satellite imagery, I am curious if a LLC is relocating itself at that latitude. That convective area which you referenced gatorcane has sustained itself for much of the afternoon.

I just think that may be a MLC and we have another case where the LLCC is outrunning it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

The 850mb vorticity continues to increase.

[jinftl]

Yep, nothing in the last few hours screams this is making a move at developing any quicker than it looked at 2pm when they went with 50% (maybe a bit less impressive than earlier today...normal to see systems flare up and wane). Perhaps 60% at most because we are moving closer in time to the potential development window

So what's everyone thinking for the next NHC update? Does it remain at 50%?

[Caribwxgirl]

The 850mb vorticity continues to increase.

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/7169/wg8vor1.gif[

What does that mean in terms of developmental prospects?

[Caribwxgirl]

Yep, nothing in the last few hours screams this is making a move at developing any quicker than it looked at 2pm when they went with 50% (maybe a bit less impressive than earlier today...normal to see systems flare up and wane). Perhaps 60% at most because we are moving closer in time to the potential development window

So what's everyone thinking for the next NHC update? Does it remain at 50%?

Ok. I'm still trying to find my way around understanding the sat images

[cycloneye]

The 850mb vorticity continues to increase.

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/7169/wg8vor1.gif[

What does that mean in terms of developmental prospects?

It means the more vorticity more stronger is a system as low level convergence increases allowing development to occur.

[Caribwxgirl]

The 850mb vorticity continues to increase.

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/7169/wg8vor1.gif[

What does that mean in terms of developmental prospects?

It means the more vorticity more stronger is a system as low level convergence increases allowing development to occur.

Thanks I'm still trying to grasp all this stuff

[Gustywind]

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 18, 2012 5:54 pm ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

ATLANTIC

- The low that came off Africa is moving rapidly west across the tropical Atlantic. It is likely to become Isaac. Long meteorological story short, the jury is still out on its ultimate destination. That's the thing about having model forecasts available so far out into the future ... it's easy to become lured into losing track of the inherent track uncertainty upwards of a week in advance. In the meantime, the first land in play is the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

[Caribwxgirl]

Up to 60%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

Code red!! Guess its gonna keep everyone up. I just hope it spares the east Carib

[hurricanes1234]

I am so busy tracking Gordon, I haven't had a chance to post on any other pages. 94L is quickly getting its act together, which possibly means a TD or TS by late tomorrow.

_________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

The intensity models are showing this becoming a 115 mph Category 3 in 120 hours, am I right?

_________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Tyler Penland]

The intensity models are showing this becoming a 115 mph Category 3 in 120 hours, am I right?

_________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*Some of*. And intensity is just a wild-goose chase until it actually develops. Even then its still rather difficult.