ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[San Felipe II]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

<snip>
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
<snip>

[hurricanefloyd5]

Brian Monahan, WFTV

[u]Way out in the Atlantic, Invest 94L is becoming much better organized near the Cape Verde Islands. We have lots of time to watch it and it does have some hurdles to get through (wind shear/dry air just to its north and less than optimally warm/deep water), but if it stays south enough it could pose a threat to the United States about 10 days from now. We'll be watching it! -BM.[/u] This is what my local weather guy said on FB

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wind shear will not be an issue after today according to the SHIPS.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        25    18    11     6     6     4     6     6     4     3     2     5     4


[Aric Dunn]

since ssd site is not up yet. made a loop. center appear to be 12 to 13N and around 33W

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

since ssd site is not up yet. made a loop. center appear to be 12 to 13N and around 33W

Looks like Isaac will be born tomorrow.

[San Felipe II]

Hi..!!!

Best track??????

[cycloneye]

Hi..!!!

Best track??????

Welcome to Storm2k. Is comming soon so stay tuned.

[psyclone]

this system looks impressive; the embryo of a classic, cape verde long track system we weather geeks love to observe. i'm always excited to monitor a long tracker with origins in the deep tropics...real hurricane season is here and without fail it always seems to pop once we get our annual flurry of season cancel posts. naturally this is great time to review hurricane plans, double check supplies and be ready for any eventuality.

[Aric Dunn]

deep convection beginning to fire over the developing llc. wont be too much longer. another 12 to 15 hours.

[gatorcane]

deep convection beginning to fire over the developing llc. wont be too much longer. another 12 to 15 hours.

Not sure about that. The ECMWF 12Z continues to not show development through 96 hours. One thing we have to see is how it behaves once it gets completely detatched from the ITCZ and gains some lattitude. At that point there won't be a moisture feed into it and where there will be plenty of SAL around that it will have to deal with. Development could be gradual.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Poll made
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113391

[Aric Dunn]

deep convection beginning to fire over the developing llc. wont be too much longer. another 12 to 15 hours.

Not sure about that. The ECMWF 12Z continues to not show development through 96 hours. One thing we have to see is how it behaves once it gets completely detatched from the ITCZ and gains some lattitude. At that point there won't be a moisture feed into it and where there will be plenty of SAL around that it will have to deal with. Development could be gradual.

Models dont do well with cyclogenisis and despite what the environment the euro says all you need to do is look at the current environment which is quite conducive. It also wont be gaining much if any latitude anymore building mid level ridging should keep in on west with maybe if a touch of just south of west motion.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

deep convection beginning to fire over the developing llc. wont be too much longer. another 12 to 15 hours.

Notice the deep convection increasing north of the llc this afternoon. During Dmax, later tonight, convection should continue to increase. I agree that it wont be too much longer before we see the birth of TD #9

[RL3AO]

Better environment then the previous systems have faced. Moving just a tad bit slower but right now with a ridge north causing upper level winds from the east like at the lower levels instead of from the west or no winds at all previously which was causing shear.

[cycloneye]

What happened with SSD?

18/1745 UTC 13.5N 32.7W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Decreasing numbers given the latest of SSD, but continues to progress nicely westard. Hey Cycloneye, that will be nice to have the latest from ACTF, to make a comparison between both positions.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

18/1745 UTC 13.5N 32.7W TOO WEAK 94L
18/1200 UTC 13.2N 30.0W T1.0/1.0 94L

[timmeister]

Better environment then the previous systems have faced.

I agree. As of yet, SAL not a problem like it was with Gordon.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest IR image

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 320W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Blown Away]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.