ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

One thing that's looking rather probable is a threat to the islands from future isaac. After its really anyones guess. Dont see any reason why this storm wont intensify rather quickly as it treks towards the islands in time.

You dont see a trough that could recurve it before it approaches the Lesser Antilles?

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track

There is a difference between ATCF and Dvorak SSD in terms of the position as SSD has 13.2N-30.0W and Best Track is at 12.3N-27.7W.

AL, 94, 2012081812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 277W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Cycloneye, Wunderground site as the same coordinates . So there's maybe more chances that 94L could be at this position.
http://french.wunderground.com/tropical ... track.html

12 GMT 08/18/12 12.3N 27.7W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 08/18/12 12.1N 26.8W 25 1008 Invest

[Aric Dunn]

12z Best Track

There is a difference between ATCF and Dvorak SSD in terms of the position as SSD has 13.2N-30.0W and Best Track is at 12.3N-27.7W.

AL, 94, 2012081812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 277W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Cycloneye, Wunderground site as the same coordinates . So there's maybe more chances that 94L could be at this position.
http://french.wunderground.com/tropical ... track.html

12 GMT 08/18/12 12.3N 27.7W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 08/18/12 12.1N 26.8W 25 1008 Invest

I have it at 13-14n and 30 west.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The long-term fate of this storm is unknown, but everybody living in the NE Caribbean Sea needs to prepare for a major hurricane hit next week.

Actually...they should already be prepared...

[northjaxpro]

94L is beginning to get that "look" late this morning. The system is gradually improving in structure and now convection is flaring nicely. Environmental conditions look decent around the developing cyclone and I would not be surprised that this may get designated a TD by tonight, or most definitely within the next 24 hours.

This is certainly the system that will really have all of us watching this upcoming week into next weekend. I have been paying close attention to the GFS runs and they keep trending farther west each day. We just have to wait and see if down the road there will be enough of a weakness to keep this system away from the Carribean and the U.S. East Coast. It will be a very interesting week ahead.
___________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

One thing that's looking rather probable is a threat to the islands from future isaac. After its really anyones guess. Dont see any reason why this storm wont intensify rather quickly as it treks towards the islands in time.

You dont see a trough that could recurve it before it approaches the Lesser Antilles?

Luis thats a good question...As of right i just dont see future issac gaining to much in the way of latitude till it gets close to the islands ridge to its north in central atl looks to hold rather strong. Having said that a recurve east of you is still in my view very much on the table. Everything i can see looks good for this to continue to slowly intensify as it treks towards in your general direction.

[cycloneye]

This is a tweet from Jim Cantore.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

The next potential "I" storm is that 1008mb Low near 12N30W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif … It could impact the Antilles as early as Thursday.

[Blown Away]

I have a question and I'm not sure I know how to ask it?? Looking at the GFS model plots for example, many times when the model finds a weakness there is an abrupt change in direction but the final result is usually a flatter track w/ rounded bend on the recurve. So if you took the 06z GFS track and applied the flatter track w/ the rounded bend, the end result would be more west closer to the CONUS? Not sure if anybody can understand my crazy brain and what I'm trying to figure out?

[luvcanescarol]

I, too, have a question. I rarely post, as I come here to learn from the masters. When I look at the satellite image of 94L, it appears to me to be a large mass of storms/convection, and ahead of it is another mass of storms/convection. Is this all the same Invest? If not, will they likely mesh together? Thanks. Coming to these forums is so educational. And humbling.

[CrazyC83]

This is a tweet from Jim Cantore.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

The next potential "I" storm is that 1008mb Low near 12N30W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif … It could impact the Antilles as early as Thursday.

As many of us probably have figured out already, Isaac is the only remaining "I" name left from the original 1979 name lists, and that letter has been retired in 7 of the last 11 years...so there already is a sinking feeling...

2000 - Isaac - Cat 4 fish
2001 - Iris
2002 - Isidore
2003 - Isabel
2004 - Ivan
2005 - Irene - Cat 2 fish
2006 - Isaac - Cat 1 brushed Newfoundland
2007 - Ingrid - weak TS bust
2008 - Ike
2009 - Ida - Cat 2 with significant Central America hit
2010 - Igor
2011 - Irene
2012 - Isaac - ?????

[ROCK]

I dont think it looks all that great at all today....though it would be nice if RAM would but a floater on it....or someone. Has the look but lacks the consolidation and convection right now....might take a little more time ala EURO run

[SouthDadeFish]

I, too, have a question. I rarely post, as I come here to learn from the masters. When I look at the satellite image of 94L, it appears to me to be a large mass of storms/convection, and ahead of it is another mass of storms/convection. Is this all the same Invest? If not, will they likely mesh together? Thanks. Coming to these forums is so educational. And humbling.

I would like to answer your question, but it would be more helpful if you could give some coordinates such as the Lat/Lon of this second area of convection you are seeing. If it is the convection to the SW of 94L then that is simply convection associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

[luvcanescarol]

Yes, that's the area...and the answer I was looking for. Thanks

[cycloneye]

I dont think it looks all that great at all today....though it would be nice if RAM would but a floater on it....or someone. Has the look but lacks the consolidation and convection right now....might take a little more time ala EURO run

As it just passed 30W the SSD floater will be up very soon. I dont know about the Ram one

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS TPW imagery is showing the cyclonic turning starting to increase over the last 24 hours. Also shows plenty of moisture to work with to the West, South, and East.

[ROCK]

thanks Luis.....sooner the better...

[jinftl]

Maybe Isaac (if he gets named) will have that same sinking feeling and take in dry air like some of his brothers and sisters that came before him this season. So many things could happen with this system that prevent it becoming the storm that does us all in once and for all...we've had invests before in this same region that had a few tricks up their sleeves one way or another for us all.

The NHC is smart, they are willing to go as far as to say there is a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours. They will be on top of it and let us know when to panic - and they usually are right!

This is a tweet from Jim Cantore.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

The next potential "I" storm is that 1008mb Low near 12N30W: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif … It could impact the Antilles as early as Thursday.

As many of us probably have figured out already, Isaac is the only remaining "I" name left from the original 1979 name lists, and that letter has been retired in 7 of the last 11 years...so there already is a sinking feeling...

[SouthDadeFish]

Some perspective:

[cycloneye]

Already the squadron is preparing for next Tuesday afternoon. Look at those coordinates.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 18 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK--PSBL LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N AND 50W ON 21/1800Z.

[ROCK]

they aint wasting any time.. they mean business if they are sending them out right at 50W....