ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Stormlover2012]

it will keep changing long range model runs arent good 8 days ahead i could see this getting in gulf

[Weatherfreak000]

Yep, continuous west shifts means time to start paying attention. What are your thoughts ROCK? I think they might go ahead and keep shifting.

Any news on CMC, GFDL or HWRF?

[KWT]

The faster this one heads west, the further west it will go. I also woldn't be shocked if the models downgrade the strength of the weakness, as they have not been doing a great job recently with the strength of the ridge.

00z GFS was pretty much down the middle of what the 18z ensembles showed, some runs were further south and west then the recent ops as well.

[Bocadude85]

The 20th anniversary of Andrew is coming up.. thats a long time for south florida to go without a major and we havent had a hurricane down here since 2005... the longest gap between storm hits in south florida is 7 years. Not saying this will be the storm to end our lucky streak just pointing out that it has been one heck of a lucky streak for us down here.

[ROCK]

Yep, continuous west shifts means time to start paying attention. What are your thoughts ROCK? I think they might go ahead and keep shifting.

Any news on CMC, GFDL or HWRF?

those should be out by now....need to look.....my thoughts are west for now until it gets to the islands...thats where the cross road is..this might cruise the carib if it misses the connection....I am paying attention though for PR and the island....something that bad #$% you will have loss of life in those areas.....then I am starting to look at FL....not saying there is not a possibility it could make the GOM but I guess I dont want to think about it just yet...makes me nauseated....

[Blown Away]

Marginal weakness sure did make 94L turn a hard right from deep in the Caribbean?

[ROCK]

Marginal weakness sure did make 94L turn a hard right from deep in the Caribbean?

true... it so far south an easy miss......and wouldnt be surprising in further long range runs....EURO coming up soon...

[KWT]

I'd hardly call it a hard right, its a gradual shift from a W/WNW to a northerly track, thats a sure sign that its not a strong weakness, if it was a strong upper trough, you'd see a hard right happen almost instantly, rather then a curve over 3-4 days like on the 00z GFS.

I suspect as I said, if the timing of this system was different, at the very least it'd be a Bahamas threat...just shows that the forward speed really will be key to this one.

If there is going to be an error on the forecast, it'll be to the west not to the east of the forecast based on how badly the models have under-estimated the upper ridge in the last few days (compare this run to yesterdays 00z GFS, chalk and cheese really!)

[Cyclenall]

wow 00z gfs way south .. actually has a south of west motion... big shift.

Its the first time in a long while the models shifted a CV item westwards and that dramatic too. I checked the 12z Euro and was amazed at how further south and west it was compared to 24 hours eariler because I had to refresh the image in my browser. Now with this dramatic change on the GFS, we have some consensus growing and a trend. After the lackluster storms that had some promise...Ernesto and Helene, could the 3rd one be the charm?

If this does become Issac (it should IMO), like Ike, Ida, Igor, and Irene this could become a large hurricane as those four in a row have pretty much done so. That's why my money is on a huge one, consistency . For tracks, one look at the Euro (12z) and Hurricane Frances of 2004 popped up but I can't rule out a more north type Ivan track actually occurring. NOT OFFICIAL!

.....then I am starting to look at FL....not saying there is not a possibility it could make the GOM but I guess I dont want to think about it just yet...makes me nauseated....

Start taking Gravol by 2013...

[KWT]

ECM 00z has started, will this run keep with the trend of the last 2 runs thats close to the E.Caribbean?

We'll see!!

[Hurricane Alexis]

So far the Euro has a weak system moving west at 72 hrs.

[KWT]

ECM very different from the last few runs of the models, nothing really at all at 96hrs, still an open wave.

It seems like the energy gets disconnected and is further north than its been on any recent runs.

Certainly very different from anything by either the GFS and the ECM in recent times...

Edit- still nothing at 120hrs, looks like this run won't develop 94L at all...an outlier or a new trend...hmmm...seems abit unlikely IMO.

[ROCK]

EURO at 168hr cruising through the carib as a weak system.....under the islands

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif


the 0Z CMC has a higher lat system but a rather weak right to the east of PR at 144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

the Hwrf which will come out shortly has 94L coming into the carib at a low lat.....you can see this at the end run of the Helene run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

0Z NOGAPS...same ole.....takes it NW right off the bat....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

EURO at 192hr

near Jamaica and weak....will make the GOM this run I believe....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


216 heading towards the channel / Isle of Youth....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

[ROCK]

240hr.....hello GOM....not a gung ho as the GFS is with intensity....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

[Cyclenall]

To be honest, I was not expecting that at all from the Euro. Very strange, wasn't it the first one to detect this system? To continue to show a major hurricane to nothing the next run is a huge outlier IMO. I would throw that out because there is no merit to such a outcome. This shakes things up a bit. Pretty much all the models show this taking off in some form so the Euro being an outlier like this is unusual.

the Hwrf which will come out shortly has 94L coming into the carib at a low lat.....you can see this at the end run of the Helene run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

All you see is the windfield of the large hurricane approaching.

[KWT]

Think this run struggles right from the get-go where it poofs the current circulation and tries to set it up around 14N, doesn't seem very likely IMO and it just seems to never recover.

For now, I'll treat this as an outlier...

[ROCK]

To be honest, I was not expecting that at all from the Euro. Very strange, wasn't it the first one to detect this system? To continue to show a major hurricane to nothing the next run is a huge outlier IMO. I would throw that out because there is no merit to such a outcome. This shakes things up a bit. Pretty much all the models show this taking off in some form so the Euro being an outlier like this is unusual.

the Hwrf which will come out shortly has 94L coming into the carib at a low lat.....you can see this at the end run of the Helene run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

All you see is the windfield of the large hurricane approaching.

yeah I am not all that on board with the EURO....too much flipp flopping between runs for my taste...