ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

i going with rock i see shear west of it

[ROCK]

12Z GFS in the medium range,,,'

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Shear isn't too bad down the line from the looks of those models, especially in the NW Caribbean. Whilst I don't think it'll re-develop anytime soon, its possible that at least it garners more attention once further west.

[floridasun78]

12Z GFS in the medium range,,,'

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i dont see any thing

[lrak]

12Z GFS in the medium range,,,'

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i dont see any thing

NWS Corpus Christi take on the long range fate of the remnants of TD7

"GULF MOISTURE INCREASES FRI AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TD#7 ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL POOL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS IS ENOUGH TO PLACE CHC POPS IN THE
WEEKEND EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS IS MORE AGRESSIVE AND SPINS UP A
SPOT LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST...WHERE AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN
OPEN WAVE."

Maybe some waves

[Weatherfreak000]

Look to me Ex-TD7 may have to wait until around 80W to really get going. Shear tells another tale however, 73-74W seems the habitable zone. Can this get going again and battle the dry air? With GFS and NOGAPS hinting it, I believe we may still get a TS out of this.

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[Gustywind]

WEATHER. Back to green

franceantilles.fr 12.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 182192.php


Currently the wave completed through our islands and exhausts in Caribbean. The sky remains cloudy but the rains have become blurred. Of
moderate showers are still possible this afternoon. The sea is depreciated. The wind has decreased.


Currently the wave evacuated in Caribbean. The sky is cloudy, but the rains have become blurred. Moderate showers are still possible this afternoon. The sea is amortized with average lows of 2 m 50 about 3 m 50 maximum waves. It will continue its depreciation in the coming hours. Wind decreased, blowing on average at 30 km/h with locally of the gusting to 50 km/h.
Many thunderstorms fell close to our island, on Dominica where accumulations of precipitation on 12 hours reached 150 to 200 litres of water per m2. For our archipelago, the accumulation of 12 hour precipitation is insignificant: of the order of 10 to 20 litres of water per m2 in general, with peaks on the southern relief of the Basse-Terre between 50 to 60 litres of water per m2.
The atmosphere was turbulent Saturday night. At La Désirade it was recorded gusts to 84 km/h. On the Atlantic coast, the sea has been strong with average trough 3 m 50 and maximum waves from 6 m to 6 m 50.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARUBA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS in the medium range,,,'

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

i dont see any thing

Look in the BOC at the end of the run

[ROCK]

Lets not forget TD 10 that bit the dust which eventually to came back as Katrina.....Just sayin....

[floridasun78]

Lets not forget TD 10???

[Shuriken]

Lets not forget TD 10???

See: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthr ... %282005%29

[Nimbus]

Still some light shear off South America this morning but the sunrise diurnal convection is pacing along with the wave axis. Ernesto didn't slow down till he reached 80W.

The models seem to leave open the possibility of some moisture reaching south Texas. The current convection would need to persist and the wave would need to close off pretty soon for that to happen IMHO. Just streaking along almost due west near 15N all night.

[Caribwxgirl]

Well I'm just glad its not organised since its headed my way right now. Hope it continues its fast movement so the rains don't linger over our mountain regions and cause landslides or flooding in low lying areas.

[Aric Dunn]

definitely looks done now.

[tolakram]

Morning Visible


Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

ATCF made an update on the Best Track for AL07. Here is the 12z.

AL, 07, 2012081312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 749W, 30, 1008, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[tailgater]

ATCF made an update on the Best Track for AL07. Here is the 12z.

AL, 07, 2012081312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 749W, 30, 1008, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

That's about where I thought it could be if there is still a center. the pressure sounds right with the buoy nearby reporting 1009mb on last ob.

[wxman57]

The wave axis hasn't passed the buoy at 75W yet. Pressure up to 1009.9mb and wind ENE at 15 kts. Chances for redevelopment in the Caribbean look quite low. Most models keep it moving to the west and inland into Central America late tomorrow or on Wednesday.

[Houstonia]

Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District):

A large dome of high pressure over NM ridging SE into TX will continue to produce hot and mainly dry weather for the next day or so. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorms along the seabreeze during peak heating or along any boundaries drifting down from the N and NNE. Slow storm motions under weak steering currents indicate if you do get a storm a good dump of rainfall is likely.

Changes appear toward the end of the week into the weekend as the ridge over NM move westward allowing a downstream trough to develop over the central US. Models continue to show a rare August cold front dropping southward down the plains an into TX by late this week and this weekend. Feel the models are likely fairly robust showing the front and cold air advection making it deep into TX, but the upper air pattern does favor the boundary making decent progress under N flow aloft. While a boundary or outflow boundaries from the north come into play by Friday a tropical wave (ex TD #7) looks to arrive into the western Gulf near the same time and make landfall along the TX coast Saturday. This feature will spread a highly tropical air mass into the state from the western Gulf and will work with the stalling frontal boundary to produce a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Yesterday, some of the models tried to spin the wave up into a closed surface low, but they have backed away from that thinking overnight. With that said there is already a surface trough in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche and the models keep this feature in that region for the next several days…so we will have to keep an eye on it to see if presentat convection can develop lower surface pressures. May also see a connection from the EPAC TS Hector and this could help enhance rainfall totals. Overall it is looking fairly wet toward the end of the week into next weekend with several rain making features. Highs will peak in the upper 90’s today-Wednesday and then begin to cool under increasing clouds and rainfall.