ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

possibly a good candidate for a post-analysis upgrade to TS if the data there is representative of circulation

i dont think nhc will say td7 was ts doing offseason

[CrazyC83]

This is definitely a storm-strength system. But it doesn't look like there is a closed LLC still.

[AJC3]

IMO,I dont think the LLC opened up.....why would be seing this is if it did? Obvoisly the conditions has improved now.....Still think this will be a strong TS and enter the GOM.....JMO


add disclaimer....

1) The recon reports from this morning clearly indicated that it did, in fact, open up into a wave, and 2) It's been stated many times over by myself and others that TS force winds can and often do occur with strong, fast moving easterly waves. I know that an easterly wave (it may have been pre-Claudette, but perhaps not) produced squalls with wind gusts above 70 MPH in the Leeward islands as it moved through that area several years ago.

[floridasun78]

This is definitely a storm-strength system. But it doesn't look like there is a closed LLC still.

were? because all data and hurr hunter say their was none

[jinftl]

I've learned my lesson on playing armchair met using pretty pictures and data that I don't fully understand...lol...that said, the NHC has done a stellar job with this system as usual (not jumping the gun to name it, forecasting it to degenerate but still bring squally weather), I will put the analysis in their hands now and see what they say in the a.m.!!!

My guess is they will keep it at Yellow on the next TWO. No question there is heavy convection, but if it lacks organization and a closed LLC, it's just really stormy un-named weather! The variable winds could be a function of local wind patterns or temporary fluctuations and not a forming LLC

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows consistancy with exTD7 heading for the big bend of Florida in 204 hrs, this is IMO becoming a possible scenerio, but we need a few more runs showing this solution before I make a call, but this will probably regenerate near 12N 77W in 54hrs like the 0zGFS shows

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

IMO,I dont think the LLC opened up.....why would be seing this is if it did? Obvoisly the conditions has improved now.....Still think this will be a strong TS and enter the GOM.....JMO


add disclaimer....

1) The recon reports from this morning clearly indicated that it did, in fact, open up into a wave, and 2) It's been stated many times over by myself and others that TS force winds can and often do occur with strong, fast moving easterly waves. I know that an easterly wave (it may have been pre-Claudette, but perhaps not) produced squalls with wind gusts above 70 MPH in the Leeward islands as it moved through that area several years ago.

Yes, to clarify my previous post, a big convective blow-up and very high winds does not a TS make. You need to see a clear LLC either by wind reports or good microwave satellite data. So this may be regenerating into a TD or even TS, but we will need to get a lot more data before we know that. And given the currently really hostile conditions, it doesn't seem likely that this has redeveloped. But the very strong convective burst is clearly an indication that it could be on the way to redeveloping.

[Shuriken]

This thing did not have a hint of a spiral on 1km navy zooms Saturday morning, so I agree downgrading was the right call.

[Shuriken]

*Dammit* ...they dropped the sat floater.

Just because a storm has been downgraded does not mean it is no longer worthy of being an Invest.

<grumble><grumble><grumble>

[AJC3]

*Dammit* ...they dropped the sat floater.

Just because a storm has been downgraded does not mean it is no longer worthy of being an Invest.

<grumble><grumble><grumble>

For the time being, you may want to use the RAMSDIS RTMC sector 4...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp

or build your own at the trusty ol' NASA GHCC site...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Shuriken]

Thanks; this is what I was looking for: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4ir204

That wave is curling over hard, now.

I love it when they roar back right after they're written off.

[AJC3]

Thanks; this is what I was looking for: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4ir204

That wave is curling over hard, now.

I love it when they roar back right after they're written off.

Yeah, I wouldn't write this one off quite yet. It never really lost the really good storm relative spin that it had, although convectively speaking, it's still a mess. The main reason that recon found it to be in the sorry, messy state that it was in was...drum roll...fast forward speed (as we've seen many, many times over the years). In this case it was a whopping 22 knots (25 MPH). Essentially, it needs to get past the TUTT axis...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

and slow down (Ernie 2.0) before it can make a serious comeback. We'll see if it can avoid CENTAM (and perhaps the Yucatan) and do so.

[KWT]

Going to be a tough few days for the remains and I suspect that if anything does form from the remains, its going to be a totally different and new system.

[tailgater]

Ex TD 7 now passing south of Puerto Rico this morning as a naked swirl, I must say it a little farther north than I thought it would be.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[Sanibel]

To see the story of TD7 look at the Caribbean WV loop. There's a TUTT-like feature occupying the entire Caribbean. The only thing keeping the naked swirl going is climatology vapors.

[hurricanes1234]

Hi, everyone!

Sorry I've been away yesterday. I am from Trinidad, and I can tell you, it was a total mess. I was unable to receive an Internet connection, because the Telecommunication Services of Trinidad and Tobago were flooded with river water when their wall was obliterated by the overflowing river. We are still unable to call others using our landlines because they are still in the process of fixing that. Yesterday, electricity went for about 7 1/3 hours but it came back at 1:20 pm. Hundreds of people are marooned in their houses, including myself.

Other residents, however, had it much worse. Many lives were lost, compared to what was expected. Several families lost all of their belongings in the flood waters. A couple of houses collapsed on residents, and unfortunately, they were killed by the crushing force. Roads were torn open, bridges collapsed and several landslides were reported.

The rainfall in my area commenced around 4:15 am yesterday. It fell continuously and stopped around 11:00 am, though in the latter hours, it was lighter. At around 3:30 in the morning yesterday, I watched the satellite image of TD 7, when the rainbands began affecting the south and east portions of Trinidad. I am still awaiting the arrival of the regional corporation, which will use their truck to remove the ankle-deep mud in our street. I am being patient, since I understand that they are currently helping families who are much more severely affected.

[cycloneye]

Hi, everyone!

Sorry I've been away yesterday. I am from Trinidad, and I can tell you, it was a total mess. I was unable to receive an Internet connection, because the Telecommunication Services of Trinidad and Tobago were flooded with river water when their wall was obliterated by the overflowing river. We are still unable to call others using our landlines because they are still in the process of fixing that. Yesterday, electricity went for about 7 1/3 hours but it came back at 1:20 pm. Hundreds of people are marooned in their houses, including myself.

Other residents, however, had it much worse. Many lives were lost, compared to what was expected. Several families lost all of their belongings in the flood waters. A couple of houses collapsed on residents, and unfortunately, they were killed by the crushing force. Roads were torn open, bridges collapsed and several landslides were reported.

The rainfall in my area commenced around 4:15 am yesterday. It fell continuously and stopped around 11:00 am, though in the latter hours, it was lighter. At around 3:30 in the morning yesterday, I watched the satellite image of TD 7, when the rainbands began affecting the south and east portions of Trinidad. I am still awaiting the arrival of the regional corporation, which will use their truck to remove the ankle-deep mud in our street. I am being patient, since I understand that they are currently helping families who are much more severely affected.

Oh boy,what a disaster over there.My condolenses to the familys of the people who died. I have to let you know that we have a thread for the people who live in the Caribbean where weather observations/reports from the islands are posted. Go and visit the thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum. Link to the thread is at my signature below.

[floridasun78]

Hi, everyone!

Sorry I've been away yesterday. I am from Trinidad, and I can tell you, it was a total mess. I was unable to receive an Internet connection, because the Telecommunication Services of Trinidad and Tobago were flooded with river water when their wall was obliterated by the overflowing river. We are still unable to call others using our landlines because they are still in the process of fixing that. Yesterday, electricity went for about 7 1/3 hours but it came back at 1:20 pm. Hundreds of people are marooned in their houses, including myself.

Other residents, however, had it much worse. Many lives were lost, compared to what was expected. Several families lost all of their belongings in the flood waters. A couple of houses collapsed on residents, and unfortunately, they were killed by the crushing force. Roads were torn open, bridges collapsed and several landslides were reported.

The rainfall in my area commenced around 4:15 am yesterday. It fell continuously and stopped around 11:00 am, though in the latter hours, it was lighter. At around 3:30 in the morning yesterday, I watched the satellite image of TD 7, when the rainbands began affecting the south and east portions of Trinidad. I am still awaiting the arrival of the regional corporation, which will use their truck to remove the ankle-deep mud in our street. I am being patient, since I understand that they are currently helping families who are much more severely affected.

good to see you back hope islands recovery soon so felt like ts what i see

[Aric Dunn]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

[floridasun78]

looking at sat this morning the circ appears to have closed off again weak of course just have to wait and see what happens in the western carrib. either way should stay on a w to wnw track into central America.

no ssd floater but there is this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

what i see ull need pull north for ex td to make comeback and one western carribbean too need pull out