ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[floridasun78]

11/1745 UTC 14.1N 59.1W T1.0/2.0 07L

did it go up ?

[Hurricaneman]

11/1745 UTC 14.1N 59.1W T1.0/2.0 07L

did it go up ?

nope, it went down

[floridasun78]

how do ex td7 look to you all tonight?

[Hurricaneman]

how do ex td7 look to you all tonight?

It getting that look that once the shear lets up it will be a storm, thinking something similar to Ernesto except a little farther north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

WEATHER. GUADELOUPE In orange for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr 11.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 182192.php


Become tropical wave, tropical depression n ° 7 addresses the Guadeloupe in the beginning of the night. Weather conditions are deteriorating with lots of wind rain and rough seas.


Depression tropical n ° 7 was retrogaded in tropical wave. But the first showers are gaining from now our archipelago. The passage of the wave, rains will intensify during night and will continue on the morning of Sunday. They will be locally heavy and thundery. Significant accumulations of the order of 100 to 150 litres of water per m2 in 12 hours are expected. In addition, winds will strengthen and reach an average speed of 40 to 50 km/h with gusts of 80 km/h. The sea will become high on the Atlantic facade and in channels with average lows of 3 to 3.5 m and a few maximum waves on the order of 5 to 6 m. The improvement should take place from Sunday afternoon.
Be carefull, heavy rainfall are likely to cause local flooding and landslides. The sea is dangerous and unwieldy.

[floridasun78]

ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 20 MPH. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN...MOVES ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N58W TO 10N61W MOVING W NEAR 18
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SUNDAY.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, this is more likely to become Ileana than Gordon.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing that we need to watch is if the GFS shows the same scenerio in the next few runs, if not it was probably an anomolus run, but if it shows the same thing the next few runs we may have something that bears watching with the artist formally known as TD7

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[FireBird]

Another quick update from Trinidad.
A 2nd man died in a landslide this morning.
His body was washed two miles from his home and took several hours to extract him from tons of debris.
The NW regions of TT were most affected, and the area where I live has been declared a disaster area.
The relief efforts have been great although we are all exhausted from the clean up.
Hope remnant 7/wave will move quickly away to allow some sunshine to come our way.
In the midst of the tragedy everyone stopped to watch young 19 year old Keshorn Walcott take gold in the men's Javelin!
It lifted all our spirits and motivated us to rise above the disaster...

[floridasun78]

IMO, this is more likely to become Ileana than Gordon.

you think will be ts still

[jinftl]

Le Raizet Airport, Guadeloupe is experiencing a very nasty squall right now...weather station date from about 10 minutes ago (as of this writing) shows ESE winds of 46 mph.






http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... D=MBATFR16

[chrisjslucia]

The remnants of 7 are getting closer to St Lucia - after the thunderstorm of earlier today, thought it would reach sooner but it has been quiet until now. Winds growing in speed although no more rain as yet. Radar shows more to come within the next hour or so. Seven has a few tricks left up its sleeve it would seem. But, this is the land of Bolt and Co, of gold medals for Grenada, Trinidad and the Bahamas - what's a little rain?

[jinftl]

Squally for sure...probably not lasting too long, but when it's bad, it's basically a tropical storm-type squall. NHC was careful to write in the final discussion for TD7 that flooding rains and winds to t.s. force were still likely to move through the Islands tonight. The convection is there - it is just not organized with a closed circulation. Luckily, the system is moving fast so that should mean it is all out of the area by Sunday.

Tropcial storm winds (44 mph!!!) now being reported on Dominica in squall at 11:18 EDT

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2012

Le Raizet Airport, Guadeloupe is experiencing a very nasty squall right now...weather station date from about 10 minutes ago (as of this writing) shows ESE winds of 46 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... D=MBATFR16

so getting bad over islands?

[floridasun78]

The thing that we need to watch is if the GFS shows the same scenerio in the next few runs, if not it was probably an anomolus run, but if it shows the same thing the next few runs we may have something that bears watching with the artist formally known as TD7

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ture we need see next few runs

[ozonepete]

Wow, that is some blast of convection. Pretty impressive for a tropical wave.

[jinftl]

Not sure if it is of any significance or just the squally nature of the weather moving through, but you can see below that the following wind directions are being reported:

- SE on Guadeloupe and Antigua & Barbuda. Also SE winds on 2 buoys east of Guadeloupe (reporting SE winds at 44mph and 45 mph, respectively)
- NNW winds of 15 mph at Grand Bay, Dominica
- ENE winds at buoy west of Guadeloupe (buoy reporting 83 deg temp on map)
- SW wind at buoy west of St. Kitts (buoy reporting 79 deg temp on map)

[ROCK]

00Z Nogaps into the carib and clips the Yuc into the GOM....as a TS....



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

IMO,I dont think the LLC opened up.....why would be seing this is if it did? Obvoisly the conditions has improved now.....Still think this will be a strong TS and enter the GOM.....JMO


add disclaimer....

[Hammy]

possibly a good candidate for a post-analysis upgrade to TS if the data there is representative of circulation