ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

[wxman57]

Center further south at 12z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 579W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

But so far I do not see that they found the estimated 1008mb pressure.

Looks like maybe 1011-1012mb, if I'm reading the HDOBS right. That's close to standard atmospheric pressure in the tropics.

[RL3AO]

AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20120811
125630 1250N 05817W 9769 00320 0131 +240 +210 149009 009 004 005 00
125700 1251N 05816W 9772 00317 0131 +240 +212 151009 009 002 005 00
125730 1252N 05815W 9770 00319 0131 +240 +216 155009 010 004 004 00
125800 1254N 05814W 9772 00317 0130 +237 +219 158010 010 006 004 00
125830 1255N 05813W 9772 00316 0130 +237 +219 163009 010 006 002 00
125900 1256N 05812W 9773 00314 0130 +235 +225 165010 011 008 003 00
125930 1257N 05811W 9771 00316 0129 +235 +224 174010 011 005 005 00
130000 1258N 05810W 9770 00316 0128 +235 +223 181009 011 004 004 00
130030 1300N 05809W 9771 00315 0128 +235 +223 182009 009 008 003 00
130100 1301N 05808W 9771 00315 0127 +235 +225 187010 011 007 003 00
130130 1302N 05806W 9772 00314 0127 +235 +228 190009 011 005 004 00
130200 1303N 05805W 9767 00317 0127 +234 +229 197009 010 006 004 00
130230 1305N 05804W 9770 00315 0127 +233 +230 200010 011 009 004 00
130300 1306N 05803W 9781 00304 0127 +230 +230 202008 011 006 004 01
130330 1307N 05802W 9768 00316 0125 +234 +226 213008 009 007 001 00
130400 1309N 05802W 9769 00313 0124 +233 +226 206007 009 010 004 00
130430 1310N 05801W 9772 00309 0122 +235 +228 200008 010 013 003 00
130500 1312N 05800W 9769 00310 0121 +234 +231 201011 012 015 003 00
130530 1313N 05800W 9768 00312 0121 +230 +230 202012 014 015 004 01
130600 1315N 05759W 9776 00304 0121 +234 +226 206008 011 010 003 00

[tailgater]

Center further south at 12z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 579W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

But so far I do not see that they found the estimated 1008mb pressure.

Looks like maybe 1011-1012mb, if I'm reading the HDOBS right. That's close to standard atmospheric pressure in the tropics.

1016mb on the 2 buoys it just past. looks terrible on the Barbados radar.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... -radar.php

[underthwx]

NHC may very well issue a final advisory befere too much longer?

[NDG]

West wind but no clear LLC found, IMO.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111316
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20120811
130630 1316N 05759W 9769 00310 0120 +230 +229 194007 008 006 003 00
130700 1318N 05758W 9769 00309 0120 +220 +220 183006 007 006 003 01
130730 1319N 05758W 9773 00305 0121 +220 +220 149005 006 008 003 01
130800 1321N 05757W 9769 00310 0121 +227 +227 142006 008 009 002 00
130830 1322N 05757W 9778 00302 0121 +220 +220 125008 009 007 005 01
130900 1324N 05756W 9764 00314 0121 +225 +224 118010 010 007 004 03
130930 1325N 05756W 9773 00305 0119 +227 +226 113010 010 006 005 03
131000 1327N 05757W 9771 00306 0119 +220 +220 099012 013 003 006 05
131030 1327N 05758W 9775 00303 0119 +227 +222 097012 013 005 004 03
131100 1327N 05800W 9770 00308 0120 +225 +221 095012 013 004 005 03
131130 1327N 05802W 9766 00311 0119 +229 +214 096013 013 010 003 00
131200 1328N 05803W 9772 00307 0120 +229 +218 093013 013 010 004 00
131230 1328N 05805W 9768 00310 0120 +229 +228 096013 014 014 003 00
131300 1328N 05807W 9769 00308 0119 +231 +225 084016 016 009 003 00
131330 1328N 05808W 9776 00304 0120 +232 +227 086013 016 010 003 00
131400 1328N 05810W 9764 00314 0120 +231 +228 070015 016 008 004 00
131430 1328N 05812W 9775 00304 0121 +233 +226 063016 017 011 004 00
131500 1328N 05813W 9769 00311 0121 +237 +217 070018 018 013 003 00
131530 1328N 05815W 9767 00314 0121 +237 +219 069018 018 017 003 00
131600 1328N 05817W 9772 00310 0122 +235 +220 064018 019 018 002 03
$$

[RL3AO]

[underthwx]

Can any of this system possibly find it's way into the Gulf and spin up into a cyclone?

[RL3AO]

Can any of this system possibly find it's way into the Gulf and spin up into a cyclone?

Unlikely to see it do anything but straight west into CA or Yucatan.

[wxman57]

West wind but no clear LLC found, IMO.

Agree, not much there. Recon is finding a weak/weakening TD. Good news for the islands. And good news for me, as I can head out on a 6-hr bike ride in 15 min an not worry about Seven.

[Caribwxgirl]

Firebird I am so sorry about the bad effects in Trinidad and even sorrier that the forecast didn't provide for better preparation. I pray there will be no deaths reported.

[tailgater]

West wind but no clear LLC found, IMO.

Agree, not much there. Recon is finding a weak/weakening TD. Good news for the islands. And good news for me, as I can head out on a 6-hr bike ride in 15 min an not worry about Seven.

I was thinking that they will probably make it Gordy. I'll wait on this next pass but the wind field seem pretty decent on that first pass. now I will admit the convection might not support TS status.

[RL3AO]

131630 1327N 05818W 9765 00315 0121 +236 +220 059018 019 /// /// 03
131700 1326N 05818W 9766 00314 0121 +240 +213 070012 015 010 004 00
131730 1326N 05816W 9773 00307 0121 +238 +220 069011 012 015 004 00
131800 1325N 05815W 9770 00311 0121 +235 +224 068011 011 013 002 03
131830 1325N 05813W 9771 00310 0121 +235 +227 062011 012 015 005 00
131900 1325N 05812W 9771 00309 0121 +235 +228 091009 011 008 004 00
131930 1325N 05810W 9769 00310 0121 +235 +226 101008 008 008 004 00
132000 1324N 05809W 9771 00308 0120 +235 +220 099006 007 009 004 00
132030 1324N 05807W 9768 00311 0120 +235 +217 081007 008 008 002 00
132100 1324N 05805W 9772 00307 0119 +234 +210 095006 007 011 002 00
132130 1323N 05804W 9771 00307 0120 +229 +225 110005 006 006 006 00
132200 1323N 05802W 9774 00305 0120 +227 +224 113005 006 009 002 00
132230 1323N 05801W 9770 00308 0120 +228 +224 125004 004 008 004 03
132300 1322N 05800W 9763 00314 0120 +229 +223 149003 004 007 003 00
132330 1320N 05759W 9772 00307 0120 +230 +222 165002 003 005 004 00
132400 1319N 05758W 9769 00310 0121 +220 +220 225005 006 012 002 01
132430 1318N 05757W 9768 00310 0121 +230 +230 231009 010 011 002 01
132500 1316N 05757W 9779 00301 0121 +230 +230 229009 010 008 004 05
132530 1315N 05758W 9769 00310 0121 +234 +231 215008 009 011 004 00
132600 1315N 05759W 9772 00308 0121 +235 +231 214008 008 012 004 00

1012 mb or so.

[wxman57]

As I said above, even tropical waves can produce TS winds, but that doesn't mean we should name them.

[RL3AO]

AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20120811
132630 1314N 05801W 9770 00310 0121 +235 +230 211008 008 015 003 00
132700 1314N 05802W 9771 00310 0121 +235 +231 214009 009 014 003 03
132730 1313N 05803W 9767 00312 0122 +234 +233 228009 010 016 003 00
132800 1312N 05804W 9773 00308 0122 +234 +231 214009 009 018 002 00
132830 1311N 05806W 9770 00312 0122 +235 +227 207008 009 018 002 00
132900 1310N 05807W 9772 00309 0122 +236 +220 209007 010 012 003 00
132930 1309N 05808W 9769 00310 0122 +230 +230 194009 010 011 003 01
133000 1308N 05809W 9769 00312 0123 +230 +230 208007 009 010 003 01
133030 1307N 05810W 9781 00302 0123 +234 +230 198006 006 012 003 03
133100 1308N 05811W 9768 00311 0122 +235 +226 185009 010 010 004 00
133130 1309N 05811W 9774 00307 0122 +235 +230 184011 011 013 004 00
133200 1311N 05811W 9769 00313 0122 +230 +230 195010 010 014 002 01
133230 1313N 05811W 9772 00311 0123 +235 +229 187010 012 014 001 00
133300 1314N 05811W 9770 00311 0123 +235 +231 184009 009 011 003 00
133330 1316N 05811W 9771 00310 0122 +235 +234 201009 010 013 002 00
133400 1318N 05811W 9771 00309 0122 +230 +230 187007 009 013 006 01
133430 1319N 05811W 9781 00300 0122 +228 +217 144008 010 023 006 03
133500 1320N 05809W 9765 00314 0121 +236 +222 162004 006 012 005 00
133530 1320N 05808W 9774 00306 0121 +236 +221 204004 005 009 004 00
133600 1319N 05806W 9767 00313 0121 +235 +220 222004 005 008 002 00

[RL3AO]

[FireBird]

Real quick update again. Emergency services in full force here. Police, fire, air rescue.
The phone network is overloaded so intermittent success with calls.
Evacuation efforts are all we can do to help friends right now.
If 7 opens to a wave, that'll mean a spread of more rain rather than the consolidation I was hoping for to pull some of these storms away.
The clash with ITCZ has made it much worse also.
Chopper circling overhead.
We are just waiting to see the news tonight.
Won't be surprised if state of emergency declared for some disaster areas.

[Caribwxgirl]

Real quick update again. Emergency services in full force here. Police, fire, air rescue.
The phone network is overloaded so intermittent success with calls.
Evacuation efforts are all we can do to help friends right now.
If 7 opens to a wave, that'll mean a spread of more rain rather than the consolidation I was hoping for to pull some of these storms away.
The clash with ITCZ has made it much worse also.
Chopper circling overhead.
We are just waiting to see the news tonight.
Won't be surprised if state of emergency declared for some disaster areas.

That is serious. That's the thing in our region people downplay possible effects if it's not a TS or hurricane. I really hope it moves quickly away. Even tiny storms can do great damage given the size of the islands in that region. Stay safe again my prayers are with your country

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111345
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20120811
133630 1319N 05804W 9777 00303 0121 +235 +215 219007 007 003 004 00
133700 1319N 05803W 9762 00316 0120 +234 +222 229009 010 009 003 00
133730 1319N 05801W 9774 00306 0120 +231 +226 231009 009 009 003 00
133800 1319N 05759W 9768 00310 0120 +235 +220 229011 011 012 002 00
133830 1319N 05758W 9774 00306 0121 +229 +223 224011 012 014 003 00
133900 1318N 05756W 9768 00311 0121 +231 +228 213013 016 009 005 00
133930 1318N 05755W 9775 00306 0121 +233 +231 214016 017 017 003 00
134000 1318N 05753W 9772 00309 0122 +235 +227 203017 018 015 004 00
134030 1318N 05751W 9770 00310 0122 +233 +231 202019 020 012 004 00
134100 1318N 05750W 9772 00309 0122 +235 +231 195020 020 018 003 00
134130 1318N 05748W 9768 00313 0122 +235 +233 199019 020 019 002 00
134200 1318N 05746W 9771 00310 0122 +235 +231 204019 019 019 003 00
134230 1318N 05745W 9769 00312 0122 +235 +231 204019 019 020 002 00
134300 1318N 05743W 9772 00311 0123 +235 +228 200018 019 019 002 00
134330 1318N 05741W 9769 00312 0123 +235 +224 193019 020 021 001 00
134400 1317N 05740W 9770 00312 0123 +236 +223 189020 020 018 003 00
134430 1318N 05738W 9772 00311 0123 +236 +222 188020 020 017 002 00
134500 1318N 05737W 9770 00313 0124 +237 +223 189019 019 015 004 00
134530 1318N 05735W 9769 00313 0124 +239 +222 192019 019 016 003 00
134600 1318N 05733W 9771 00312 0125 +239 +223 191019 020 014 003 00
$$
;

Still no VDM.