ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[SoupBone]

its trying to make a come back... some convection firing.

"Do or do not, there is no try!" That convection is south of what looks like a weakening LLC. Oh, and I just measured the last hour's movement at 270 deg and 36 kts.

36 knots? That's going from ludicrous speed heading to plaid. That's going to be incredibly tough to develop at that pace.

[Extratropical94]

its trying to make a come back... some convection firing.

"Do or do not, there is no try!" That convection is south of what looks like a weakening LLC. Oh, and I just measured the last hour's movement at 270 deg and 36 kts.

And that's exactly why some people should not call these systems Gordon, Helene or whatever because atm there is no Gordon in sight concerning this racing depression.

[wxman57]

At it's current 3-hr movement of 28 kts, it would reach St. Lucia early tomorrow morning (14-16 hrs from now) vs. Sunday morning compared to Sunday morning for the consensus model. It's getting hard to hold Bones back from the mic.

[psyclone]

its trying to make a come back... some convection firing.

"Do or do not, there is no try!" That convection is south of what looks like a weakening LLC. Oh, and I just measured the last hour's movement at 270 deg and 36 kts.

that's a speed we typically associate with a TC undergoing extratropical transition as it engages the westerlies north of 40, not something in its development stages in the deep tropics.

[wxman57]

The more I look at the visible loop, the more I'm convinced the LLC is dissipating or has already done so.

[chrisjslucia]

Random Question: is flooding an issue with small island countries like Barbados or Saint Lucia? Just curious

Simple answer is yes. Not sure if Seven will pose that threat - Ernesto brought wind but little rain but three days later we had some localised flooding from the tropical wave that followed behind it. Rainfall is often harder to cope with than tropical storm level winds, particularly when the ground remains dry as it is currently is, as the rainy season has overall been sparse in terms of rainfall.

I see Wxman has projected an early arrival for this system in St Lucia - early Saturday rather than Sunday - because of its speed. Wish it would slow down a touch, I hate storms that pass at night!

[ozonepete]

The more I look at the visible loop, the more I'm convinced the LLC is dissipating or has already done so.

Then stop looking, lol. I see a lot of evidence there that the LLC is still complete.

[Sanibel]

TD7 is weaker than Ernesto and less convected. It is also traveling at a higher latitude. This has the classic look of a weak system that gets wiped out. However if you input the behavior of waves in the current season all it took was an established circulation to beat the negative conditions. It's a tough call but TD 7 will probably survive and, once it hits the west Caribbean, bloom like Ernesto did. Caribbean flat-trackers under a strong ridge tend to get pumped.


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[Aric Dunn]

The more I look at the visible loop, the more I'm convinced the LLC is dissipating or has already done so.

not quite yet. some convection trying to fire on west side and north. probably wont amount to much but the structure still looks good. just checked the recent microwave images still shows a good structure. just think its moving to fast to sustain and convection.

[wxman57]

3-hr speed now 31+ kts.

[Zanthe]

So...The LLC is dissipating? Sort of like it did with Ernesto? It's hardly a TD, but then again, a tropical depression isn't going to be super well organized and have robust, deep convection.

I won't believe a thing until the NHC says so at this point... >_>

[wkwally]

I do not think that there is going to be a named storm with this system. Looks as if it is going to the cyclone graveyard.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

3-hr speed now 31+ kts.

This one is gonna have a hard time!!! No way the low level winds will be able to consolidate with that kind of speed, much less have the mid and upper levels stack with it. I just heard a local OCM say this could be Gordon tomorrow. Yes, I suppose it is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[SoupBone]

3-hr speed now 31+ kts.

So you make Star Trek references, but not comment on Spaceballs!

TD7 has gone from ludicrous speed to plaid. Come on man, that's classic. Seriously though, is it even possible to maintain this type of speed and crash into CA?

[colbroe]

I have just been looking at the last few frames and it looks like the system is consolidating, nice circular definition can be seen with better cloud coverage .

[ozonepete]

I see that too. Among all of the obituaries on here for TD7 I have to say it looks better right now than it has since it first started spinning up...

[wkwally]

It is going to have to get it's act really together if it is ever going to be named.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wkwally]

Yesterday I was real concerned with TD7 as the NHC's track is close to Ernies but I really think this one is going to die.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wkwally]

OK from what I am translating from the NHC's latest report this will be dead before long and become an open wave. Call the morgue.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[EyELeSs1]

I hate to disagree with wxman57 but I do agree with others in saying that it does look a bit better organized now (or at least not degenerating).

There is a direct blow up of convection right over the LLC and consistent convection on the south side of the LLC which should help drive the south side of the circulation with westerly winds and inflow. Also, even though the circulation seems to be a bit more elongated there is clear low level inflow from the S and SW now with convection increasing on the whole.

Don't write this one off just yet folks as horrible as it looks...