ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical
System just off West Africa.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208100008
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012081000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 85W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 97W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 141N, 122W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 140W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 155W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113281&start=0
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208100008
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012081000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 85W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 97W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 141N, 122W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 140W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 155W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113281&start=0
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L
BEST TRACK: AL93, 151N 171W, 25kts, 1004mb, DB
Quite a low pressure. Only thing it really needs is a bit more convection.
Quite a low pressure. Only thing it really needs is a bit more convection.
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- Gustywind
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Re:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'll say, 8 storms by mid August seems like a borderline hyperactive pace. Circulation is unbelievably vigorous. Maybe H storm will get pushed southwest as well?
Why will it get push southwest? Explain, that could be interresting for everbody . Tkanks to you.
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- cycloneye
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ATL: GORDON - Models
First model plots at 00z
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 100017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120810 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120810 0000 120810 1200 120811 0000 120811 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 17.1W 16.0N 20.4W 17.1N 23.9W 18.2N 27.6W
BAMD 15.1N 17.1W 16.3N 20.8W 17.7N 24.6W 19.1N 28.4W
BAMM 15.1N 17.1W 16.4N 20.9W 17.7N 24.9W 18.9N 29.1W
LBAR 15.1N 17.1W 16.3N 20.5W 18.1N 24.1W 19.9N 27.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120812 0000 120813 0000 120814 0000 120815 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 31.4W 21.4N 38.9W 23.5N 45.5W 25.8N 51.5W
BAMD 20.4N 32.3W 22.4N 39.3W 23.2N 45.7W 24.7N 51.1W
BAMM 20.0N 33.3W 21.3N 41.0W 21.6N 47.4W 22.3N 52.4W
LBAR 21.7N 31.0W 24.9N 36.2W 27.1N 38.0W 27.1N 37.0W
SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 67KTS 74KTS
DSHP 53KTS 61KTS 69KTS 77KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 17.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 9.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- AJC3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L
Florida1118 wrote:BEST TRACK: AL93, 151N 171W, 25kts, 1004mb, DB
Quite a low pressure. Only thing it really needs is a bit more convection.
Indeed. Dakar bottomed out at 1005MB.
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- Gustywind
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT IS
CURRENTLY ALONG 16W AND IS ATTACHED TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 16N16W. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH IS VERY CLEAR IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AXNT20 KNHC 100002
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT IS
CURRENTLY ALONG 16W AND IS ATTACHED TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 16N16W. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WHICH IS VERY CLEAR IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
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Should develop, though the models seem to be very unsure to what degree it'll strengthen.
Heading out to the fishes...Bermuda probably will be far enough west judging by the current models but I think it'd be most unwise to rule out a possible risk to them down the line. Coming off at 15N and likely developing before 35W, its hard to go against the recurve solution.
Heading out to the fishes...Bermuda probably will be far enough west judging by the current models but I think it'd be most unwise to rule out a possible risk to them down the line. Coming off at 15N and likely developing before 35W, its hard to go against the recurve solution.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L
FISH STORM OUT TO SEA
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by Ivanhater on Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Add Disclaimer
Reason: Add Disclaimer
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATL: INVEST 93L - discuss
Just curious how strong the Bermuda High will be in another week? Will 93L just be a fish or will is just go westbound and possibly affect Florida or the SE coast?
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Gustywind wrote::uarrow:
Hey Cycloneye, what's up with the UKMET model?
Yeah Gusty,tracks to the Butterfly island,but that run is not from 93L but from TD7.
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- meriland23
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So, in your guyses opinion, between invest 93L and TD7, which do you think is currently most favorable for significant development and favorable conditions. Possible threat to US/islands? hmm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L
Are any of the models predicting 93L to become a major hurricane?
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L
alienstorm wrote:FISH STORM OUT TO SEA
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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1. Add a disclaimer when you make a forecast such as the one above
2. It may be a fish storm but we have standards on s2k. Have something to back up a bold forecast such as yours.
3. Count this as a verbal warning. Next will be an official one.
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Michael
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L
hurricanes1234 wrote:Are any of the models predicting 93L to become a major hurricane?
You can check the model scenarios at the 93L models thread. So far they are up to a cat 1 hurricane.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113312&p=2249181#p2249181
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