ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Florida1118]

Wow 92L really did take off this morning. LLC isn't outrunning the convection by much so it should at least maintain and even start some slow development. What is the forward speed?

About 15mph to the West.

[floridasun78]

12Z CMC rakes the main islands....which would tear it up...though it is carib bound on this run and a little stronger.....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

that be bad for haiti with rain

[tolakram]

RAMSDIS floater moved over 92L

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

from: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
14N IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N43.5W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS.

[KWT]

Weak system into the islands then on the CMC, doubt it'll go that far north though given the upper high that is in place at the moment, this baby will keep on trucking westwards IMO.

[CaneCurious]

Where did the graphic of 92L go on map?

[KWT]

A couple thoughts here. First, some are taking el nino as a given. Has it been officially declared? Second, I once heard Max Mayfield, former NHC Director, say that SAL is not necessarily a development killer.

Your question is great. We are in ENSO neutral, NOT El Nino. They are very different in that ENSO neutral genertaes much less shear over the Atlantic than El Nino.

Come back to that in a few weeks...the SST's at the moment are AT El Nino levels, the weather don't give a jot whether its offical or not, we have SST's at 0.6-0.7+ and thats El nino range...end of.

Anyway upto 80% now, and convection starting to redevelop around the system as Aric predicted earlier, so it probably won't be long before we do get it upgraded. LLC is very obvious, track right now looks to the westt and may have slowed just a touch from earlier.

[Portastorm]

Where did the graphic of 92L go on map?

Please go back and read page 14 of this thread which explains what happened.

[Gustywind]

Note that Meteo-France Martinica expected Sunday an active twave crosses Martinica while Guadeloupe do not mentionned it but speak about more showers with isolated tsorms for Sunday. We will continue to monitor closely the situation. I will keep you informed if i have any infos from these islands .

[Aric Dunn]

A couple thoughts here. First, some are taking el nino as a given. Has it been officially declared? Second, I once heard Max Mayfield, former NHC Director, say that SAL is not necessarily a development killer.

Your question is great. We are in ENSO neutral, NOT El Nino. They are very different in that ENSO neutral genertaes much less shear over the Atlantic than El Nino.

Come back to that in a few weeks...the SST's at the moment are AT El Nino levels, the weather don't give a jot whether its offical or not, we have SST's at 0.6-0.7+ and thats El nino range...end of.

Anyway upto 80% now, and convection starting to redevelop around the system as Aric predicted earlier, so it probably won't be long before we do get it upgraded. LLC is very obvious, track right now looks to the westt and may have slowed just a touch from earlier.

Just to end the discussion of el nino. regardless if it develops now the effects wont be felt across the US and atlantic till almost winter so the 2012 season will pass as neutral conditions.

[Cyclenall]

Ernesto was trucking along at 22 oh oh. They probably will just upgrade to depression.

Yes, 15 Mph is not significant compared to Ernesto so I don't think future Gordon will have that problem for the foreseeable future. Other factors are more of a concern right now.

Everyone, lets hold hands and pray this is not an Ernesto redux like some mets have speculated (not on here necessarily).

[ROCK]

12Z GFDL doesnt even see it....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Indeed its not really the lower level speed that was causing the issue earlier, it was a nice burst of shear from the NE/N which shunted the convection way southwards. The LL flow did increase but its slowed to my eye again in recent hours as has the shear that briefly hit it.

[Gustywind]

09/1745 UTC 13.8N 42.9W T1.0/1.0 92L
09/1045 UTC 13.7N 41.5W T1.0/1.0 92L

[ouragans]

Note that Meteo-France Martinica expected Sunday an active twave crosses Martinica while Guadeloupe do not mentionned it but speak about more showers with isolated tsorms for Sunday. We will continue to monitor closely the situation. I will keep you informed if i have any infos from these islands .

Oh really? They did! They're really getting better... I want to see the weather news tonight...

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

This buoy should be directly in the path of 92L...

Pressure is falling and winds and seas are picking up...

[Dean4Storms]

I'm sorry, but I don't need the NHC to tell me what I can clearly see with my own eyes. It's warm core, closed surface circulation with convection. It is already a TD in my opinion.

This is my opinion and not an official forecast or opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 25, 1010, LO

[floridasun78]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 25, 1010, LO

LO mean not td yet?

[Gustywind]

Note that Meteo-France Martinica expected Sunday an active twave crosses Martinica while Guadeloupe do not mentionned it but speak about more showers with isolated tsorms for Sunday. We will continue to monitor closely the situation. I will keep you informed if i have any infos from these islands .

Oh really? They did! They're really getting better... I want to see the weather news tonight...

Yeahhh let's follow the weather new tonight