ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

latest loop

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely already at least a TD IMO

[cycloneye]

Maybe they want to wait a little longer? I can only guess that the trigger of renumber by ATCF was pulled earlier than what the NHC forecasters wanted.

[tolakram]

We could see another reversal. Time will tell. That circulation center well defined, though, and there is an area of strong convection.

[ozonepete]

Maybe they want to wait a little longer? I can only guess that the trigger of renumber by ATCF was pulled earlier than what the NHC forecasters wanted.

You could see that the renumber was too late to get a whole package together for the 11AM so the time did seem odd. But it looks too good to reverse it. But tell me, can't they go ahead and set it up as a TD now and just wait to put the package up at 5PM? They don't have to do a special statement just because they upgraded it, do they?

[AnnularCane]

Still nothing on the NHC site. Did somebody jump the gun?

Stewart?

[drezee]

If I were the NHC forecaster, I would wait. We have a buoy in place for the 5pm advisory, if needed. No need to upgrade until it gets to the buoy, short of a convective blowup over the exposed center.

[cycloneye]

Maybe they want to wait a little longer? I can only guess that the trigger of renumber by ATCF was pulled earlier than what the NHC forecasters wanted.

You could see that the renumber was too late to get a whole package together for the 11AM so the time did seem odd. But it looks too good to reverse it. But tell me, can't they go ahead and set it up as a TD now and just wait to put the package up at 5PM? They don't have to do a special statement just because they upgraded it, do they?

I was surprised when they made a Special Tropical Weather Outlook last night at 11:15 PM EDT. Nothing will surprise me anymore.

[knotimpaired]

Waiting to hear what is happening with 92L is like sitting in the Drs. office here

[wxman57]

Was checking model projections for general flow in the Gulf next week and the Euro, GFS, UKMET and to a lesser amount the Canadian all have a weakness in the ridge over the north-central Gulf this weekend as a moderate cold front sweeps through the Grt Lakes and NE U.S. However, by early next week they all build a ridge westward across the central to northern Gulf.

This would indicate a track similar to Ernesto, perhaps even a bit farther south, with a landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua or possibly Belize next Tuesday night/Wed. That's very fast movement, indicating future "Gordon", too, may have issues with vertical stacking in the fast low-level flow.

For now, I don't see any indications of a central to northern Gulf threat.

[Blown Away]

The 12z TVCN consensus brings 92L into the central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola. My prediction for now will be a track similar to Ernesto up to 75 West.

[cycloneye]

Tentative first mission for 92L will be on Saturday morning.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 09 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 --
A. 11/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 11/0915Z
D. 13.8N 56.0W
E. 11/1130Z TO 11/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HOURLY FIXES AT
12/0000Z NEAR 14.0N AND 60W IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

[hcane27]

Amazing how things change. Not long ago we are hearing that the northern Gulf Coast is "open for business" due to the non-"death ridge" and now it appears as though nothing can get north of Belize due to the existing-"death ridge" ... the more things change , the more they stay the same.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Storm RE-RE-numbered 07 --> 92

invest_RENUMBER_al072012_al922012.ren

[Portastorm]

Amazing how things change. Not long ago we are hearing that the northern Gulf Coast is "open for business" due to the non-"death ridge" and now it appears as though nothing can get north of Belize due to the existing-"death ridge" ... the more things change , the more they stay the same.

One week in tropical weather is an eternity. Many, many things can happen and/or change. You will notice the key phrase in wxman57's post was "for now."

[Sanibel]

This has an established LLC like Ernesto. I think it's a go.

[ozonepete]

Amazing how things change. Not long ago we are hearing that the northern Gulf Coast is "open for business" due to the non-"death ridge" and now it appears as though nothing can get north of Belize due to the existing-"death ridge" ... the more things change , the more they stay the same.

Actually that ridge has eroded slightly over Texas and some of the Gulf coast a few times this season, but did so this last time before Ernesto came close enough. It's all in the timing...

[Extratropical94]

Storm RE-RE-numbered 07 --> 92

invest_RENUMBER_al072012_al922012.ren

Wow, I've never seen them doing that.
Does that mean they renumbered it by accident?

[ozonepete]

I've never seen that. Very odd...

[cycloneye]

Storm RE-RE-numbered 07 --> 92

invest_RENUMBER_al072012_al922012.ren

Yes,here is the link to the reversal.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 922012.ren