ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on the last 2 recon fixes... It's possible Ernesto is moving just north of due west...

Current Area of lowest pressure - 993.9mb - 1858N
Last Recon Fix based on VDM - 18°49'N

Edit: but based on where the Wind shift took place it's moving south of due west and looks to be making landfall in the next couple of hours if it continues!

Its going to be oscillating quite a bit. It does appear the center made a shift south, but that is due to the convection burst on the north side of the center. That said, once this band wraps around the south, it may push the center back north again. Any jog this storm takes will be detrimental to its landfall strength.

[RL3AO]

Looks like Recon is heading out... Please tell me it's just so they can climb to a higher altitude and not that they are leaving the system cause the mission is over! Just when Ernesto is getting to work they finish the mission!

Relax they're not done yet.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like Recon is heading out... Please tell me it's just so they can climb to a higher altitude and not that they are leaving the system cause the mission is over! Just when Ernesto is getting to work they finish the mission!

I'm guessing they'll get one more center pass before calling it a day.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Looks like Recon is heading out... Please tell me it's just so they can climb to a higher altitude and not that they are leaving the system cause the mission is over! Just when Ernesto is getting to work they finish the mission!

Relax they're not done yet.

Yup I see that once Google Earth updated with the latest HDOB set...

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090417
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120809
040830 2023N 09139W 8430 01563 0088 +173 +149 111049 049 033 001 00
040900 2023N 09141W 8428 01565 0086 +173 +149 111049 049 035 001 00
040930 2023N 09143W 8430 01562 0087 +173 +148 110049 050 035 003 00
041000 2023N 09145W 8429 01563 0087 +173 +149 109049 049 037 001 00
041030 2023N 09147W 8432 01562 0088 +174 +150 109048 049 037 001 00
041100 2023N 09149W 8428 01565 0086 +171 +153 110050 050 037 001 00
041130 2023N 09151W 8430 01561 0087 +170 +157 110050 051 037 002 00
041200 2023N 09154W 8430 01560 0086 +168 +161 109051 052 037 002 00
041230 2023N 09156W 8431 01558 0088 +165 +165 108053 053 037 002 00
041300 2023N 09158W 8429 01560 0087 +160 +160 108053 053 036 002 01
041330 2023N 09200W 8433 01557 0087 +160 +160 108051 052 037 002 01
041400 2023N 09202W 8430 01560 0087 +160 +160 107053 053 036 002 01
041430 2022N 09205W 8426 01562 0086 +160 +160 104054 055 038 002 01
041500 2022N 09207W 8431 01557 0085 +167 +162 104054 055 038 002 00
041530 2022N 09209W 8428 01562 0086 +167 +160 103056 058 038 003 00
041600 2022N 09211W 8429 01560 0087 +160 +160 101056 058 039 004 01
041630 2022N 09214W 8433 01556 0089 +160 +160 101056 057 039 002 01
041700 2022N 09216W 8429 01558 0082 +168 +158 102053 054 039 002 00
041730 2022N 09218W 8429 01556 0082 +167 +157 101053 054 039 002 00
041800 2022N 09220W 8430 01555 0081 +170 +152 101052 053 039 001 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[brunota2003]

Dropsonde...this time in the max wind band!

000
UZNT13 KNHC 090420
XXAA 59048 99193 70919 04691 99002 24415 10061 00018 24414 10060
92699 20411 11582 85428 16001 13078 88999 77999
31313 09608 80339
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 16
62626 RAINBAND SPL 1931N09193W 0341 MBL WND 10072 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 11575 001843 WL150 10066 083 REL 1929N09188W 033931 SPG 1930N0
9193W 034144 =
XXBB 59048 99193 70919 04691 00002 24415 11856 17802 22850 16001
33843 /////
21212 00002 10061 11974 10074 22962 10572 33953 10077 44939 10576
55924 11582 66854 13078 77843 13077
31313 09608 80339
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 16
62626 RAINBAND SPL 1931N09193W 0341 MBL WND 10072 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 11575 001843 WL150 10066 083 REL 1929N09188W 033931 SPG 1930N0
9193W 034144 =
;

78 knots at flight level when it was dropped...61 knots on the surface. SFMR had around 57 knots there.

[brunota2003]

They finally got a dropsonde in the max wind band...78 knots flight level, SFMR was reading 57 knots, and the drop recorded 61 knots on the surface. Conversion from flight to surface for that is 0.79

Using that, the 86 knots they recorded at flight level would have sustained winds of 67 knots at the surface.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090427
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120809
041830 2022N 09222W 8429 01556 0081 +167 +154 101051 052 038 001 00
041900 2022N 09225W 8428 01556 0079 +171 +153 104053 053 038 001 00
041930 2022N 09227W 8432 01554 0079 +170 +152 107053 053 038 002 00
042000 2022N 09229W 8429 01556 0079 +171 +150 106053 053 039 001 00
042030 2022N 09231W 8432 01554 0079 +172 +144 105053 053 037 003 00
042100 2022N 09234W 8431 01554 0078 +173 +146 103053 053 038 002 00
042130 2022N 09236W 8429 01555 0076 +171 +148 101052 052 039 001 00
042200 2022N 09238W 8432 01552 0077 +172 +151 098053 054 038 001 00
042230 2022N 09240W 8429 01556 0079 +170 +153 097055 055 038 000 00
042300 2022N 09242W 8429 01558 0080 +172 +154 096055 056 038 002 00
042330 2022N 09245W 8426 01558 0076 +175 +152 095056 057 038 001 00
042400 2022N 09247W 8437 01549 0078 +174 +149 096057 057 038 001 00
042430 2022N 09249W 8421 01567 0082 +170 +145 097057 057 037 002 00
042500 2022N 09251W 8436 01550 0081 +171 +144 098056 057 036 001 00
042530 2022N 09254W 8429 01556 0079 +174 +146 094055 056 037 002 00
042600 2021N 09256W 8426 01561 0080 +175 +144 093055 055 038 001 00
042630 2021N 09258W 8433 01555 0081 +171 +148 093054 055 038 001 00
042700 2021N 09300W 8426 01561 0080 +174 +146 092055 056 039 002 00
042730 2021N 09303W 8429 01557 0079 +176 +149 092055 056 039 002 00
042800 2021N 09305W 8429 01558 0082 +169 +157 091055 056 038 002 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

So it's pretty safe to say that Ernesto is now only 5kts away from becoming Hurricane Ernesto again based on the Drop to the northeast of the center...

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

At this rate were gonna have a Hurricane before the next intermediate advisory.

[brunota2003]

Looks like they are going to set up for another NW pass, and then exit out through the area of max winds again.

[RL3AO]

Not sure how much stronger Ernesto will get then 65 or 70kt. Its core has been disrupted and there appears to be no sign of an eyewall and the strongest winds are well N/NE of the center.

[Kingarabian]

Gotta drive home for dinner guys sorry for the short notice. Someone take over!

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like they are going to set up for another NW pass, and then exit out through the area of max winds again.

Im wondering if theyll find proof of what you mention in the discussion thread about center reformation further north. The apparent current center seems to be shoving southward but remains on the periphery of convection. Recon also found a pressure increase despite increasing surface winds as well. This will likely be a very interesting center pass.

[CrazyC83]

The data suggests a 65 kt intensity?

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090437
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120809
042830 2021N 09307W 8429 01557 0084 +164 +157 094055 056 036 002 00
042900 2021N 09309W 8429 01558 0087 +161 +159 094054 056 036 003 00
042930 2021N 09312W 8428 01558 0085 +163 +157 091053 054 037 001 00
043000 2021N 09314W 8434 01551 0086 +160 +160 085052 053 038 001 01
043030 2021N 09316W 8430 01557 0086 +160 +160 086052 055 036 002 01
043100 2021N 09318W 8428 01563 0088 +160 +160 081045 053 034 002 01
043130 2021N 09320W 8430 01560 //// +154 //// 076049 052 032 005 01
043200 2021N 09323W 8426 01561 0084 +160 +160 082055 056 032 002 01
043230 2021N 09325W 8437 01552 0086 +165 +157 088056 057 032 002 00
043300 2021N 09327W 8428 01562 0090 +160 +160 087054 055 034 001 01
043330 2021N 09329W 8426 01562 0089 +161 +158 088054 055 034 001 00
043400 2021N 09332W 8432 01555 0087 +163 +158 089055 055 031 001 00
043430 2021N 09334W 8431 01557 0086 +167 +157 089052 054 030 000 00
043500 2021N 09336W 8428 01561 0086 +166 +160 086051 051 030 001 00
043530 2020N 09338W 8429 01558 0079 +179 +149 086047 051 032 001 00
043600 2020N 09340W 8423 01565 0077 +180 +147 085045 046 029 003 03
043630 2019N 09341W 8436 01552 0080 +180 +148 085044 044 /// /// 03
043700 2017N 09340W 8436 01554 0079 +180 +148 087044 046 027 001 00
043730 2016N 09339W 8425 01562 0081 +174 +153 086046 047 027 001 00
043800 2015N 09339W 8429 01560 0086 +163 +163 084048 049 027 000 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

The data suggests a 65 kt intensity?

yes... Recon found 86kt flight level winds and based on the conversion it would be about 65kts...