ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 145N, 386W, 25, 1010, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Nimbus]

14.5 is pretty far north for a Caribbean track and also kind of dry for development. If the forecast ridge holds through the entire period maybe the Bahamas would be a favorable area for development.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS sends it west to only crash into CA......also note it doesnt do much with that monster about to splash down behind it...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

[ROCK]

14.5 is pretty far north for a Caribbean track and also kind of dry for development. If the forecast ridge holds through the entire period maybe the Bahamas would be a favorable area for development.

not really the 18Z GFS shows a monster high sending this due west or south of west into the carib....

[Riptide]

14.5 is pretty far north for a Caribbean track and also kind of dry for development. If the forecast ridge holds through the entire period maybe the Bahamas would be a favorable area for development.

not really the 18Z GFS shows a monster high sending this due west or south of west into the carib....

The european sends it north of the islands, but also has some weird interaction with the African wave.

[Ivanhater]

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

It's looking like this season's going to be a bust as well for a cat.3 or higher making landfall in the U.S. (Not that I want one to). These waves will either come off of Africa and intensify quickly and curve out to sea or slowly intensify and get sheared apart in the eastern caribbean. The only way I see a major impacting the U.S. is if it forms in the western caribbean or southern gulf and moves in a northerly direction.
Not official... Just an opinion.

[brunota2003]

Welcome to S2K, Camille!

[Annie Oakley]

Seems as if Cyclone always has the breaking news ha.................thanks!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH WWW UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...



TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N35W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N36W
MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER AND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
37W-40W...AND FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 34W-36W. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be developing.

[Gustywind]

Loop

[abajan]

There can be little doubt now about this developing into a tropical depression. It's definitely getting that classic look. I fully expect the TWO to be at least 70% at the 8:00 AM update.

Mark my words and mark them well! (Of course, I'm not averse to eating a bit crow with some fine Chianti if things don't quite pan out as expected )

[Kingarabian]

There can be little doubt now about this developing into a tropical depression. It's definitely getting that classic look. I fully expect the TWO to be at least 70% at the 8:00 AM update.

Mark my words and mark them well! (Of course, I'm not averse to eating a bit crow with some fine Chianti if things don't quite pan out as expected )

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was just thinking the same thing. Looks pretty impressive as of right now. With strong ridging forecast in the extended could be a possible gulf/ Florida threat down the road.

[brunota2003]

For the record...Lester's Southern Fried Crow is quite tasty! There was even a photo of President Obama, himself, enjoying Lester's crow

92L looks pretty good this evening! Though I still have serious doubts as to the low level easterlies...I think they will still be quite strong once 92L gets further west.

[ROCK]

its tapping the ITCZ for moisture to offset the SAL its mixing out....it got the look of a TD....

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

If 92L goes north of the islands will it still be affected greatly by the shear present in the eastern caribbean and decline not being much by the time it gets to FL or the east coast?

[ozonepete]

TD for sure now. Pretty deep convection firing right over an LLC.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

If 92L goes north of the islands will it still be affected greatly by the shear present in the eastern caribbean and decline not being much by the time it gets to FL or the east coast?

Welcome Camille!

It's way too early to tell. Forecasts that far out in advance are no better than a coin toss. The shear changes constantly and often pretty quickly so you need to use shear forecast charts but I don't even bother this far out. The models still don't forecast shear very well at all. We have to wait.