ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Definitely moving south of west now. Regeneration to a hurricane looking unlikely. Maybe the GFS was correct in driving it WSW into the Pacific and regenerating there?

[KWT]

Sure looks like it is moving WSW which does indeed raise the chances of it redeveloping in the EPAC. Still somewhat unlikely that the direct remains of Ernesto will develop but who knows!

[Portastorm]

Definitely moving south of west now. Regeneration to a hurricane looking unlikely. Maybe the GFS was correct in driving it WSW into the Pacific and regenerating there?

For all the grief some of us used to dump on the GFS, I have to admit that I've been very impressed with its performance this tropical season. Think it did quite well with Ernesto.

[tolakram]

Up to a 15 frame loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

It appears to be moving due west, and it appears it will emerge, barely, in the Gulf. Assuming SW movement doesn't begin again.

[Blown Away]

Definitely moving south of west now. Regeneration to a hurricane looking unlikely. Maybe the GFS was correct in driving it WSW into the Pacific and regenerating there?

The GFS has been money in the bank!

[Stratosphere747]

Quick update for those interested...

The guy I've started chasing Gulf storms with (Josh Morgerman) and who has become one of the definitive chasers for Mexican systems (on both the EPAC and Atlantic sides) ended up making a ballsy call and went after Ernesto at the last minute.

Finally positioned in Buena Vista which is roughly due W of Majahual and probably missed the eye by only a mile or two. Unofficial pressure reading was in the mid 970's with an incredibly tight pressure gradient. Makes sense with the eye in my estimation continuing to contract even hours after landfall.

He should have a more detailed and specific report later on at - http://www.icyclone.com

Scott

[Portastorm]

Quick update for those interested...

The guy I've started chasing Gulf storms with (Josh Morgerman) and who has become one of the definitive chasers for Mexican systems (on both the EPAC and Atlantic sides) ended up making a ballsy call and went after Ernesto at the last minute.

Finally positioned in Buena Vista which is roughly due W of Majahual and probably missed the eye by only a mile or two. Unofficial pressure reading was in the mid 970's with an incredibly tight pressure gradient. Makes sense with the eye in my estimation continuing to contract even hours after landfall.

He should have a more detailed and specific report later on at - http://www.icyclone.com

Scott

Scott -- Thanks for posting this. Josh's name was referenced here last night and I know we had many (including myself) following his exploits. Glad to know he is safe and sound and perhaps came up with one of the few, verifiable surface reports from Ernesto's first landfall.

[JPmia]

Quick update for those interested...

The guy I've started chasing Gulf storms with (Josh Morgerman) and who has become one of the definitive chasers for Mexican systems (on both the EPAC and Atlantic sides) ended up making a ballsy call and went after Ernesto at the last minute.

Finally positioned in Buena Vista which is roughly due W of Majahual and probably missed the eye by only a mile or two. Unofficial pressure reading was in the mid 970's with an incredibly tight pressure gradient. Makes sense with the eye in my estimation continuing to contract even hours after landfall.

He should have a more detailed and specific report later on at - http://www.icyclone.com

Scott

I hope he got some wind readings too.

[Hurricaneman]

Quick update for those interested...

The guy I've started chasing Gulf storms with (Josh Morgerman) and who has become one of the definitive chasers for Mexican systems (on both the EPAC and Atlantic sides) ended up making a ballsy call and went after Ernesto at the last minute.

Finally positioned in Buena Vista which is roughly due W of Majahual and probably missed the eye by only a mile or two. Unofficial pressure reading was in the mid 970's with an incredibly tight pressure gradient. Makes sense with the eye in my estimation continuing to contract even hours after landfall.

He should have a more detailed and specific report later on at - http://www.icyclone.com

Scott

He was in the eyewall, never really got in the eye, so that 975 pressure reading is probably 968 in the actual eye

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[drezee]

Laguna de Términos is a good spot. Ernesto's future strength could be stronger is it emerges N of the Laguna or less to the south (more land interation)

[Sanibel]

Probably an intensifying category 2 at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

If 968 was a legit pressure then that would be about 90 kt.

[tolakram]

Center getting close to the coast.



15 frame rapid scan loop (live): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
100 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO HEADED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 90.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND ELSEWHERE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 90.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[tolakram]

latest

[tomboudreau]

I havent been around most of the day, but is recon in the gulf waiting for the center to move back out over open water or are there no missions scheduled? TIA

[wxman57]

I havent been around most of the day, but is recon in the gulf waiting for the center to move back out over open water or are there no missions scheduled? TIA

As close to the coast (if over water at all) the center will be, I don't think there will be any further recon missions.

[cycloneye]

This is the TCPOD from Yesterday that has the last two missions for Ernesto in the BOC. The first one departs this afternoon at 5 PM EDT and the second one departs on Thursday morning at 5 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 07 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-          FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-
       A. 09/0000, 0600Z             A. 09/1200, 1800Z
       B. AFXXX 1205A ERNESTO        B. AFXXX 1305A ERNESTO
       C. 08/2100Z                   C. 09/0900Z
       D. 19.4N 91.3W                D. 19.4N 93.4W
       E. 08/2330Z TO 09/0600Z       E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
       SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.

[Fyzn94]

Is it me or has this taken a jog to the WNW?